Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles (23-51) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (37-35)
Whose bright idea was it to remove the Marlin statue? That ballpark has less personality than GlobeLife Park in Arlington now. Truly a stadium worthy of the name LoanDepot Park.
You play in Miami of all places. Embrace the obnoxious gaudiness.
Anyways, it’s the Orioles again, except this time it’s in Buffalo and the Jays aren’t in the middle of a tailspin, having won four games straight, two against the Orioles and two against the Marlins in a mini sweep. Baltimore, for their part, have continued what has become a truly abysmal June, playing host to the Houston Astros, who promptly bullied them into submission with a three-game sweep.
I’m never going to predict a four-game sweep, because baseball is a janky sport, and that would be tantamount to insanity. Buuuuuuuuuut if ever there was a time for it….
Anyways, the Jays have once again exited the HellState for the chillier and theoretically friendlier confines of Buffalo to play overly aggressive host to the Baltimore Orioles. Before getting into that, humour me as I plead for engagement. If you like what Jayslam is doing, please consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or an enemy! I’m happy with either.
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BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (8) 8 plate appearances, .429/.500/.429, 3 total bases, 2 Weighted Runs Created, 0.07 WPA, 0.03 WPA/LI
One more series of resisting the urge to give Reese McGuire a Best Bird, as that would also mean awarding him a Double Take Award (as outlined here), which I’ve already cheapened by giving to Joe Panik twice.
There weren’t any explosive offensive performances to unequivocally give Best Bird to, owing to the opposing starting pitchers, Sandy Alcántara and Trevor Rogers, mostly being excellent. I went with the safe pick of Vladdy over McGuire or Bo Bichette, as he seemed like a good middle ground between McGuire’s contextless production, and Bichette’s clutch hitting. Could’ve gone to any of those three though.
Honourable Mentions: Bo Bichette, Reese McGuire
Pitcher: Ross Stripling (3) 6 innings, 21 batters faced, 2 hits, 1 earned run, 7 strikeouts, 1 walk, 3.49 FIP, 68 Game Score v2, 0.17 WPA, 0.08 WPA/LI
Fun fact: Since getting blown up by the Red Sox on May 20, Ross Stripling has pitched to a 2.29 ERA, good for fifteenth in all of baseball.
Unrelated, but how the FUCK does Jacob deGrom but up a 0.28 ERA in that same period????
Honourable Mentions: Tim Mayza, Robbie Ray
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 8
Marcus Semien- 4
Bo Bichette- 4
Joe Panik- 2
Randal Grichuk- 2
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
Teoscar Hernández- 1
George Springer- 1
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 6
Hyun Jin Ryu- 5
Steven Matz- 4
Ross Stripling- 3
Alek Manoah- 2
Julian Merryweather- 2
Anthony Castro- 1
Ryan Borucki- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Thursday, June 22 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Dean Kremer vs. Anthony Kay
Kremer: Eleven starts, 49 ⅓ innings, 6.20 ERA/5.98 FIP/5.16 xFIP, 20.7 K%, 8.8 BB%, .269 xBA Against, 44.7 HardHit%
Kay: Six games (four starts), 21 innings, 6.43 ERA/5.92 FIP/4.00 xFIP, 24.5 K%, 10.6 BB%, .233 xBA Against, 32.8 HardHit%
Friday, June 23 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Matt Harvey vs. Alek Manoah (possible suspension pending)
Harvey: 15 starts, 62 ⅓ innings, 7.80 ERA/4.70 FIP/4.82 xFIP, 17.5 K%, 7.3 BB%, .298 xBA Against, 40.7 HardHit%
Manoah: Five starts, 23 ⅔ innings, 4.18 ERA/6.12 FIP/4.51 xFIP, 27.3 K%, 9.1 BB%, .205 xBA Against, 36.1 HardHit%
Saturday, June 24 (3 p.m. EST/1 p.m. MST): Keegan Akin vs. Hyun Jin Ryu
Akin: 9 games (five starts), 33 ⅔ innings, 6.42 ERA/4.44 FIP/4.60 xFIP, 21.5 K%, 9.4 BB%, .257 xBA Against, 41.7 HardHit%
Ryu: 14 starts, 83 innings, 3.25 ERA/3.99 FIP/3.79 xFIP, 20.8 K%, 5.1 BB%, .254 xBA Against, 39 HardHit%
Sunday, June 25 (1 p.m. EST/11 a.m. MST): Jorge López vs. Ross Stripling
López: 15 starts, 33 ⅔ innings, 5.68 ERA/5.19 FIP/4.18 xFIP, 22.5 K%, 9.2 BB%, .269 xBA Against, 42.4 HardHit%
Stripling: 12 games (11 starts), 60 ⅓ innings, 4.33 ERA/4.32 FIP/4.12 xFIP, 25.7 K%, 6.7 BB%, .242 xBA Against, 40.8 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 27-47
Run differential: -105 (294 Runs, 399 Runs Allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 1-2
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 0-3
Last 10 games: 1-9
I’m going to keep this short since I last talked about the Orioles not one week ago and frankly, they’re a hard team to find interesting things to talk about. Oh boy, Travis Lakins was recalled and Mac Sceroler was designated for assignment? How fascinating! Tell me about the roster implications for Thomas Eshelman and Adam Plutko, I fucking beg you.
Actually to say there’s zero intrigue around the Orioles would be inaccurate. After all, they just called up a 33-year old rookie knuckleballer!
Mickey Jannis made his big league debut in a relief appearance on Wednesday, getting his career started by striking out Yordan Álvarez. Jannis would give up five earned runs over three innings, giving up a pair of home runs to both Álvarez and Canadian Abraham Toro along the way, but I’m mostly just happy to see a knuckleballer not named Steven Wright back in the big leagues.
Since their last series win, against Cleveland in early June, the Orioles have gone 2-13, winning one game against the New York Mets and another against the Blue Jays. This includes sweeps at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland again, and the Astros. They are now 23-51 for the season, good for the worst record in the American League, and second-worst in MLB behind only the Arizona Diamondbacks. I predicted the Orioles would finish the year with a 71-91 record. They would have to go 48-40 to achieve that. I am not good at predicting things.
Best Players Thus Far:
John Means, Starting Pitcher (10-day IL), 2.28 ERA/3.98 xFIP, 25.7 K%, 4.9 BB%
Cedric Mullins II, Center Field, .311/.379/.539, 151 wRC+
Trey Mancini, First Base, .265/.343/.478, 126 wRC+
Freddy Galvis, Shortstop, .250/.307/.421, 100 wRC+
Paul Fry, Relief Pitcher, 3.12 ERA/2.97 xFIP, 33.9 K%, 12.8 BB%
Key Under-Performers:
Anthony Santander, Right Field, .240/.274/.383, 79 wRC+
Maikel Franco, Third Base, .211/.254/.372, 71 wRC+
Matt Harvey, Starting Pitcher, 7.80 ERA/4.82 xFIP, 17.5 K%, 7.3 BB%