Nothing but an unspeakably fucking horrid three-game series at the hands of half of a scuffling New York Yankees team in front of a crowd of braying, obnoxious Buffalonian Yankee fans (all I’ll say about that is I hope these people don’t also hate the Jets, Giants, Rangers, and Islanders because that would be some pretty irritating double consciousness) to flip your mindset from “man I can’t wait to eat the shitty Baltimore Orioles alive” to “hmmm, can we at least take one of three from the shitty Baltimore Orioles?”
Oh yeah, we’re bringing it back.
If not for the six-game losing skid in May, I think this would be the worst time to be a Toronto Blue Jays fan this season. Hell, your mileage may vary, it still might be. Between the bullpen pissing away a lead on Tuesday, the Jays getting absolutely jobbed by umpire C.B. Bucknor on a missed passed ball that was called a foul tip (which is non-reviewable, for reasons that are beyond my meagre human understanding) on Wednesday, and becoming the first-ever victims of the 1-3-6-2-5-6 triple play thanks to bad baserunning on Thursday, a game that it never once felt like they had a chance at winning, even when they were ahead for a brief half-inning. And that feeling was only intensified every time the Jays hitters rolled over a fastball from Michael Fucking King.
Oh, and just in case you thought that the awful, just absolutely horrendously unwatchable bullpen would at least be free of injuries for this series (you poor, naive, hypothetical fool, you), Steven Matz is on the COVID IL after contracting an asymptomatic case, Carl Edwards Jr. has found himself on the 60-day IL, and Rafael Dolis has gone on the 10-day IL himself after apparently losing his feeling for the baseball entirely. Which, uh, can’t possibly be good.
Cavan Biggio is back and hitting well, and George Springer should be returning soon (God willing), but the rate that pitchers are going down like flies to is downright dizzying.
Oh, but Charlie Montoyo says they’re having fun so, uh, that’s cool I guess. Not that I know what people in the dugout are thinking, but watching Vladdy look distressingly sad sitting on the bench or watching Ross Stripling snap at Joe Panik would suggest otherwise but, uh, sure. Okay. Piss on my head and tell me it’s raining.
At least play the rest of Wednesday night’s game under protest, fuck man.
None of this is to say that we shouldn’t be optimistic about the upcoming series against the John Means-less Orioles. They’re fucking terrible. I mean, look at the starting pitchers that Baltimore is throwing out against the Jays:
Bruce Zimmermann (4.83 ERA/5.11 FIP), who I’m convinced is one of those computer-generated minor leaguers from the MLB 2K games.
(Update: I’m keeping the Zimmermann bullet point here because I think it’s funny, but in the hours before game time, the Orioles have actually placed him on the IL Instead, Thomas Eshelman (5.22 ERA/5.89 xFIP) will get the start).
Dean Kremer (6.65 ERA/5.84 FIP), who’s giving up the most home runs per nine innings (2.28) of any pitcher in the American League with at least 40 innings pitched.
The battered corpse of Matt Harvey (7.76 ERA/4.85 FIP).
But while the Jays would be right to eye this trio of starters like a lustful cartoon wolf whose eyes are inflating to the size of beach balls, there’s still something of a sense of urgency going into this series. Well, maybe “urgency” isn’t the right word, there’s still a lot of season left. Regardless, just beat the shit out of the Orioles, okay? The rest will work itself out, just… Just clobber them. Just do it.
BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Marcus Semien (4) 13 plate appearances, .300/.462/.600, 1 home run, 6 total bases, 3 Weighted Runs Created, 0.14 WPA/LI
Not to tell social media people how to do their job, but “MarCRUSH” seems a little weak, as nicknames go.
Semien had a good series, to be sure, and so did the likes of Bo Bichette and the newly-risen Cavan Biggio, but I wasn’t exactly spoiled for choice this time around in terms of overwhelming favourites. Bench players Santiago Espinal and Reese McGuire had great series, albeit in smaller sample sizes, each putting together three-hit games.
Honourable Mentions: Cavan Biggio, Reese McGuire
Pitcher: Ross Stripling (2) 6 ⅔ innings, 27 batters faced, 3 hits, 2 earned runs, 9 strikeouts, 2 walks, 3.32 FIP, 64 Game Score v2, 0.14 WPA/LI
It’s a shame that Stripling’s start today, possibly his best appearance of the season thus far, was overshadowed by him losing his composure and screaming at Joe Panik after a defensive error. It was a low point for Striping (and he’s said at much, giving a by-all-accounts heartfelt apology), but it shouldn’t overshadow how good he was. Shame the MLB replay rules couldn’t pick him up.
Tyler Chatwood put together a couple of solid lower-leverage appearances, though I think I can be excused for being a little low on trust for him at the moment. Trent Thornton and the newly called-up Patrick Murphy also had some good stints. Rookie Tayler Saucedo had a really nice relief stint on Thursday, keeping the game close. It’s also his 28th birthday today, so both those factors combined get him an honourable mention.
Honourable Mentions: Tyler Chatwood, Tayler Saucedo
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 7
Marcus Semien- 4
Bo Bichette- 4
Joe Panik- 2
Randal Grichuk- 2
Cavan Biggio- 1
Teoscar Hernández- 1
George Springer- 1
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 6
Hyun Jin Ryu- 4
Steven Matz- 4
Ross Stripling- 2
Alek Manoah- 2
Julian Merryweather- 2
Anthony Castro- 1
Ryan Borucki- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Friday, June 18 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Robbie Ray vs. Thomas Eshelman
Ray: 12 starts, 70 ⅓ innings, 3.05 ERA/4.32 FIP/3.03 xFIP, 32.1 K%, 6.3 BB%, .236 xBA Against, 48.9 HardHit%
Eshelman: (First start of the season) 2019/20 stats: 22 games (eight starts), 70 ⅔ innings, 5.22 ERA/5.94 FIP/5.17 xFIP, 12.4 K%, 6.5 BB%, .303 xBA Against, 38.5 HardHit%
Saturday, June 19 (4 p.m. EST/2 p.m. MST): Alek Manoah vs. Dean Kremer
Manoah: Four starts, 20 ⅓ innings, 2.66 ERA/4.35 FIP/4.58 xFIP, 25.3 K%, 9.6 BB%, .196 xBA Against, 34 HardHit%
Kremer: Ten starts, 43 ⅓ innings, 6.65 ERA/5.84 FIP/5.09 xFIP, 20.1 K%, 8.2 BB%, .284 xBA Against, 46.4 HardHit%
Sunday, June 20 (1 p.m. EST/11 a.m. MST): Hyun Jin Ryu vs. Matt Harvey
Ryu: 13 starts, 76 innings, 3.43 ERA/3.97 FIP/3.79 xFIP, 21.1 K%, 5.2 BB%, .252 xBA Against, 39.2 HardHit%
Harvey: 14 starts, 58 innings, 7.76 ERA/4.85 FIP/4.79 xFIP, 17.6 K%, 7.2 BB%, .292 xBA Against, 39.4 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 26-42
Run differential: -7 (273 Runs Scored, 355 Runs Allowed)
Last 10 games: 2-8
In a shocking twist of events, the Baltimore Orioles remain really fucking terrible.
However, they do a couple things relatively well. And by “relatively well”, I mean “badly, but not egregiously badly”. With regards to the position players, Cedric Mullins has been a revelation in center field, ditching switch-hitting, as well as his prior slapdick approach, apparently, knocking the ball around and playing solid defence, both of which are complemented by his excellent speed. He’s currently ranked fifth in baseball in terms of fWAR, behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ronald Acuña Jr., Xander Bogaerts, and Nick Castellanos. Trey Mancini has been a wonderful story after missing all of 2020 battling cancer, putting together his best season so far.
Outfielder Austin Hays and shortstop/Blue Jays Legend Freddy Galvis (who was acquired pretty much explicitly to be trade bait) have been about league average, with their defence carrying their value, and utility infielder Ramón Urías has hit well in a smaller sample size. That’s pretty much where the good vibes end for the Orioles, though. Anthony Santander has disappointed, as has D.J. Stewart, both of whom were coming off of big 2020 campaigns. Third baseman Maikel Franco, infielder Pat Valaika, and catcher Pedro Severino have all been abysmal, while Ryan Mountcastle, an erstwhile Rookie of the Year candidate has been hugely underwhelming, with poor defence at both first base and left field not doing him any favours.
The bullpen also finds itself in the “mediocre, but not unplayable” category, headed by a very good trio of Cole Sulser, Paul Fry, and César Valdez (ERA is a liar), whose dead fish changeup is one of my favourite pitches in all of baseball to watch. Tyler Wells, Tanner Scott, and Dillon Tate are some other solid pitchers who round out the corps.
The starting pitching, however, is the glaring Achilles Heel in an already bad team, sporting a 5.10 FIP, the worst in MLB. John Means was the lone bright light before going down with a shoulder injury, and the likes of Bruce Zimmerman, Jorge López, Dean Kremer, Keegan Akin, and Matt Harvey have failed to inspire any confidence at all.
In other words, “Them’s Good Eatin’". Now the Jays just need to, uh, fuckin’ eat.
Best Players Thus Far:
John Means, Starting Pitcher (10-day IL), 2.28 ERA/3.98 xFIP, 25.7 K%, 4.9 BB%
Cedric Mullins II, Center Field, .315/.388/.514, 149 wRC+
Trey Mancini, First Base, .277/.356/.482, 131 wRC+
Freddy Galvis, Shortstop, .253/.315/.438, 107 wRC+
Paul Fry, Relief Pitcher, 1.85 ERA/2.73 xFIP, 35.4 K%, 12.1 BB%
Key Under-Performers:
Ryan Mountcastle, First Base/Left Field, .186/.238/.237, 94 wRC+
Maikel Franco, Third Base, .215/.253/.377, 72 wRC+
Matt Harvey, Starting Pitcher, 7.76 ERA/4.79 xFIP, 17.6 K%, 7.2 BB%