*Insert "Where the Buffalo Roam" Joke Here* (Series Preview: Miami Marlins (24-28) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (27-25))
The Toronto Blue Jays took two of three from a bad, bad Cleveland team, and as the calendar turns to June, they will finally play their first home game in a real state, moving up North to beautiful, renovated Sahlen Field in Buffalo, New York.
Since the stench of Florida, that accursed, wretched state, never truly goes away though, the first team the Jays will face in Buffalo shall be the Miami Marlins.
Before getting into the first 2021 series in the Queen City, humour me as I plead for engagement. If you like that JAYSLAM is here, providing fresh Jay-related #content multiple times a week, consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or one who’s not! Whatever!
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BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Joe Panik (1) 7 plate appearances, .857/.857/1.286, 4 Weighted Runs Created, 0.34 WPA/LI
Sometimes, you just wanna make a really fucked up pick for your made-up baseball award.
I was torn between Panik, who did legitimately have a great, if relatively brief, series against Cleveland, peppering singles and blasting rare home run on Friday, and Randal Grichuk, who has continued to be quietly solid through the month of May.
In the end, I did end up going with Panik, and yes, it was in large part because of the novelty factor. I will also award him this year’s first “Double-Take Award”, given to the player who we will look back on at the end of the year and think “how the fuck did HE win this award?”
Honourable Mentions: Randal Grichuk, Marcus Semien
Pitcher: Hyun Jin Ryu (4) 5 innings, 21 batters faced, 4 hits, 2 earned runs, 6 strikeouts 2 walks, 1.92 FIP, 57 Game Score v2, 0.19 WPA/LI
For a while, it was looking like the weather had knocked Ryu out of contention, as he struggled to get a feel for his pitches in the face of a biblical storm in Cleveland, coughing up an early lead. He more than settle down after that though, holding the opposition in check while the Jays’ offense pounded the everloving shit out of Cleveland’s pitching.
Steven Matz was solid for five before getting blown up a bit and pulled in the sixth to give way to Tyler Chatwood, which definitely didn’t end up snowballing into a discourse that I hate having to witness. It came down to Ryu and Ross Stripling, and while I gave it to Ryu because of the sheer viciousness of the elements that he had to endure, Stripling deserves a ton of credit for the his five shutout innings in Game 1 of Sunday’s doubleheader. Amazing what some mechanical adjustments and your career flashing before your eyes can do to a guy.
As of June 1, this puts Ryu in a three-way tie with Steven Matz and Robbie Ray for the pitchers’ lead. Just as I definitely predicted in April.
Honourable Mentions: Ross Stripling, Steven Matz
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 5
Bo Bichette- 3
Marcus Semien- 3
Randal Grichuk- 2
Joe Panik- 1
Teoscar Hernández- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
George Springer- 1
Pitchers:
Hyun Jin Ryu- 4
Robbie Ray- 4
Steven Matz- 4
Julian Merryweather- 2
Alek Manoah- 1
Anthony Castro- 1
Ryan Borucki- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Tuesday, June 1 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Sandy Alcántara vs. Robbie Ray
Alcántara: Eleven starts, 65 innings, 3.46 ERA/3.61 FIP/3.56 xFIP, 24.7 K%, 7.7 BB%, .213 xBA Against, 40.1 HardHit%
Ray: Nine starts, 52 innings, 3.81 ERA/5.12 FIP/3.40 xFIP, 28 K%, 6.1 BB%, .256 xBA Against, 50.7 HardHit%
Wednesday, June 2 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Pablo López vs. Alek Manoah
López: Eleven starts, 63 innings, 2.71 ERA/3.23 FIP/3.67 xFIP, 23.2 K%, 7.1 BB%, .231 xBA Against, 29.7 HardHit%
Manoah: One start, 6 innings, 0.00 ERA/1.79 FIP/3.79 xFIP, 31.8 K%, 9.1 BB%, .142 xBA Against, 15.4 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 27-25
Run differential: +10 (201 Runs Scored, 191 Runs Allowed)
Last 10 games: 5-5
In 2020, the Marlins outperformed expectations and, thanks to the expanded postseason, snuck their way into the playoffs, sweeping a laconic Chicago Cubs team in the Wild Card Series before getting promptly by Atlanta in the NLDS.
As it stands in 2021, the Marlins are a thoroughly middle-of-the-pack team in the crowded NL East, which is also something I could say about any other NL East team not named the Washington Nationals (Sorry Nats fans. I’m not feeling the 2019 magic). However, despite their decidedly non-stellar record, and despite being managed by the stodgy, old-school Don Mattingly, Miami has still managed to become one of the most entertaining teams in baseball, thanks to players like Jazz Chisholm, Miguel Rojas, and Jesús Aguilar.
The Marlins’ biggest strength is their pitching, despite losing excellent young pitchers in Sixto Sánchez and Elieser Hernández early in the year. The Fish With Arms have more than made do with a solid triumvirate of the excellent Trevor Rogers, Pablo López, and Sandy Alcántara. This trio has been joined by rookie Cody Poteet, who has looked good in four starts.
As for the bullpen, it has also been solid overall. Free agent signing and Former Blue Jay Anthony Bass hasn’t looked great, nor has Adam Cimber, but Dylan Floro and Yimi García have picked up the slack in high-leverage situations. Richard Bleier, John Curtiss, Anthony Bender, Ross Detwiler, and Zach Pop (the Pride of Brampton, Ontario), have rounded up a solid relief corps.
The offensive side of the ball has been a bit more scattershot. Miami’s lineup has some really solid hitters, but the weak spots can get pretty rough. Jorge Alfaro has been bad at the plate, but his defence at catcher is his main calling card anyways. Isan Díaz, Lewis Brinson, Magneuris Sierra, and José Devers (Rafael’s cousin) have all been bad, while Blue Jays Legend Jon Berti has regressed badly.
The injured Brian Anderson has also underperformed, as has Adam Duvall (though he’s been a good contributor through his good defence). On the flipside Starling Marté has been the team’s best hitter (.313/.423/.500, 161 wRC+), and the next tier behind him contains a pair of excellent middle infielders in Rojas and the electrifying Bahamian rookie Chisholm. Aguilar has hit the sweet spot of “good, not great, hitter who is nonetheless fun as hell to watch”, and the platoon combo of Corey Dickerson and Garrett Cooper combine to make one solid hitter. It’s an offence a notable underbelly, especially with Rojas and Anderson replaced by Díaz and Berti, but it can jump on any pitcher who would underestimate it. The Jays will have to find away to Alcántara and López and limit the damage done by Marté, Chisholm, Aguilar, and the Cooper/Dickerson platoon.
Best Players Thus Far:
Trevor Rogers, Starting Pitcher, 1.87 ERA/3.24 xFIP, 30.5 K%, 8.8 BB%
Pablo López, Starting Pitcher, 2.71 ERA/3.67 xFIP, 23.2 K%, 7.1 BB%
Miguel Rojas, Shortstop (10-day IL), .275/.354/.433, 124 wRC+
Sandy Alcántara, Starting Pitcher, 3.46 ERA/3.56 xFIP, 24.7 K%, 7.7 BB%
Jazz Chisholm, Second Base/Shortstop, .286/.350/.486, 134 wRC+
Key Under-Performers:
Adam Duvall, Right Field/Left Field, .213/.257/.425, 90 wRC+
Brian Anderson, Third Base (10-day IL), .250/.316/.371, 96 wRC+
Jon Berti, Super Utility, .170/.282/.286, 69 (nice) wRC+