A Handy Bit of Business
Blue Jays trade for reliever Brad Hand from the Washington Nationals for catching prospect Riley Adams
On Thursday morning, the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty reported that a deal to send left-handed reliever Brad Hand from the Washington Nationals to the Toronto Blue Jays. Hand had been an off-season target for the Jays, but he instead signed a one-year contract with the Nationals, who now find themselves in a rebuild in which everyone not named Juan Soto is presumably available.
The Jays later confirmed that they had Hand had been dealt for, with the return being 25-year-old Triple-A catching prospect Riley Adams, who had a stint with the Blue Jays earlier in the season while Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk were both out with injuries.
I’m choosing to believe that the Nationals took what I said about the Brewers’ trade announcement tweets to heart because this post from Washington is pretty nice. 100% JAYSLAM Approved.
Blue Jays fans were coming off a Wednesday of mixed, largely negative emotions, as Toronto forced a doubleheader split with the Red Sox and not only missed out on Joey Gallo but missed out on him to the fucking New York Yankees. Our fragile, broken minds desperate for positivity of any kind (by which I mean, a trade), the trade for Hand pushed us over the edge, resulting in a cavalcade of puns and handjob jokes, with the latter mostly related in some way to Reese McGuire, as God intended.
With almost exactly 24 hours left until the Friday, July 30 trade deadline (at 4 p.m. EST/2 p.m. MST), is Brad Hand the piece needed to catapult the Jays over the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox and take their rightful place at the top of the division? Will Riley Adams become a left-handed Salvador Pérez, making the Jays regret their foolishness? Will the Reese McGuire/Brad Hand jokes ever stop being funny to me1? All these questions and more answered on this wheeling, dealing episode of JAYSLAM.
THE NEW BLUE JAY
Brad Hand
Three weeks after the acquisition of Trevor Richards, the Jays’ bullpen is rounding into the shape with the trade for Brad Hand, a 31-year-old veteran lefty reliever with 437 career appearances, 7.1 rWAR, and 126 saves, for whatever that last stat is worth (correct answer: Not much).
Hand is a pure rental, only under contract for the rest of the 2021 season. The Jays will be paying the final third of both his $4 million guaranteed amount and $6.5 million in deferrals. This doesn’t correspond neatly with the thought that the Jays are looking to add players that will help with next season as well as this one, but it raises the floor for 2021 at minimal cost (with all due respect to Riley Adams).
Now as to how good Hand actually is… I guess we’ll see? From 2016 (his first full season as a reliever) to 2020 with the San Diego Padres and Cleveland Guardians he’s been solid to great, posting a 2.70 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and 3.20 xFIP. 2020 was a career-best for Hand, who had himself a 2.05 ERA, 1.37, and, uh, 3.83 xFIP, with the best walk rate of his career (4.7%) over 22 innings. However, seeing as he’s a rental, the Jays are more so interested in what he can provide over the next couple of months than what he’s been. And that outlook is maybe not as rosy as some would like.
Consider, for instance, this side-by-side comparison of his Statcast metrics.
Hand didn’t get much swing-and-miss in 2020 either, but he complimented that with great command and an ability to limit hard contact. Neither has been the case thus far in 2021, and his results say as much, jumping to a 3.59 ERA, 4.33 FIP, and 4.65 xFIP.
Potentially related is the slip in his spin rates since the crackdown on sticky stuff began in mid-June.
Pete Walker and Matt Buschmann will hope to coax Hand back into form, and they do have some things to work with. Hand is throwing his four-seam fastball as hard as ever, as opposed to his slider, which had previously been his main pitch before a drop in velocity this season prompted him to lean more on his fastball, which batters have squared up a bit (.353 xwOBA). Reduced use of sliders (down from 50.7% in 2020 to 43.6% in 2021) may also play a part in the lack of strikeouts and swing-and-miss.
He’s also bumped up his sinker usage, and it seems to be getting a bit overexposed, knocked around to a .399 xwOBA. I don’t know how you retool the three-pitch mix to make it work a bit more efficiently, but I think there’s something to work with here. Especially since his slider has still been strong this season, holding hitters to a .195 xBA and .259 xwOBA. Hand continues to limit hard contact and has gotten both lefties (.286 wOBA) and righties (.280 wOBA) out at an equal rate.
The Nationals used Hand as a traditional closing pitcher, and at this point, there’s little reason to believe the Jays won’t also use him as a high-leverage reliever, although the presence of Jordan Romano and Charlie Montoyo’s willingness/injury-inspired need to be very flexible about relief roles means that Toronto can be more flexible about it. Maybe they use Hand as a traditional closer while using Romano in the seventh and/or eighth against tougher parts of opposing lineups. Or maybe Hand comes in the seventh and/or eighth innings against lefty-heavy sections of opposing lineups, maybe mixing and matching with Trevor Richards and Adam Cimber depending on the situation, while Romano wraps the game up. Along with taking the pressure off of Romano, Richards, and Cimber, it also bumps down a scuffling Ryan Borucki and Tim Mayza, who can settle into mid-leverage roles more suited to them.
SO LONG. GOODBYE. I’LL SEE YOU WHEN I SEE YOU.
Among the surplus of catchers on the Jays’ 40-man before the trade (Adams, Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, Reese McGuire, and Gabriel Moreno), Adams is the one who hit the sweet spot of both "having some degree of potential” and “being completely redundant with regards to the Jays’ plans for the catcher position”. So it’s not surprising at all that he’s the one who ended up being jettisoned, especially with Jansen going on the IL once again.
Adams is definitely still a prospect, but he’s got obvious flaws that limit his ceiling as a potential big league catcher, as was seen during his 12-game stint with the Blue Jays. He’s got a strong arm but is not super mobile behind the plate. And while his bat, specifically his power, projects better, he doesn’t make a ton of contact. Eric Longenhagen, who projects him as a bat-first backup, says the following about him.
I think it’s possible for Adams to simplify his swing in a way that looks like what Alec Bohm has done, which is a contact-oriented approach that derives power from the hitter’s strength rather than a lot of movement, though Adams doesn’t have that kind of natural bat-to-ball ability (if he did and caught, he’d be a top 25 prospect).
Adams will have a better shot at playing time with the rebuilding Nationals, behind Yan Gomes (whose contract expires after this season), veteran René Rivera, and fellow prospect Tres Barrera in the catching depth chart.
WHAT’S LEFT TO BE DONE?
With Hand on the way, Jacob Barnes getting DFA’d, and both Tyler Chatwood and Anthony Castro going on their respective rehab assignments, this is what the full-strength bullpen likely looks like.
High-leverage:
Jordan Romano
Brad Hand
Ideally mid-leverage, but likely forced into high-leverage:
Adam Cimber
Trevor Richards
Mid-leverage
Ryan Borucki
Rafael Dolis
Tim Mayza
Low-leverage:
Anthony Castro/Tayler Saucedo
Who even fucking knows at this point:
Tyler Chatwood
It won’t single-handedly win you a World Series, but the bullpen is looking much, much better than it did even a month ago. One more piece to slot in, like a José Cisnero or Noé Ramírez, or Craig Kimbrel (do it) would be fantastic, but I would say the front office has succeeded in addressing the bullpen. Still, uh, add more. Obviously.
The Jays should look (and are looking) at starting pitching (pushing Ross Stripling to the bullpen would also constitute an upgrade in the form of a bulk reliever, I suppose! But also don’t just do that!), as well as another hitter. Starting pitchers such as Kyle Gibson and José Berríos are the more high-profile options that are under contract/team control for multiple years (do it).
As for hitting, missing out on Gallo was deflating, but there are (mostly lower-profile) options out there that could step in and provide a boost. The biggest name out there, albeit one that is unlikely to be moved, is Cleveland Guardians third baseman José Ramírez, who would require a big haul, but would be a huge boost at the position.
DO IT.
No.