A Farewell to a Large King
Rowdy Tellez traded to the Milwaukee Brewers for pitchers Trevor Richards and Bowden Francis
On Tuesday afternoon, the Toronto Blue Jays continued to upgrade their battered bullpen, trading with the Milwaukee Brewers for 28-year-old right-handed pitcher Trevor Richards, a strikeout-oriented reliever who fans may remember from his time spent with the Tampa Bay Rays from 2019 to 2021. Also going to the Jays is 25-year-old right-handed minor league pitcher Bowden Francis.
Going the other way is first baseman Rowdy Tellez, a 30th-round pick by the Blue Jays in the 2013 MLB draft who made the big leagues in 2018, playing with Toronto on-and-off to mixed results, never quite carving out an everyday role for himself.
If Joe Panik’s departure made me weep, Rowdy Tellez’s emotionally devastated me. I’m gonna miss that boy.
Starting to think the Jays put a little more production value in their player acquisition announcement tweets than other teams.
To make room on the 40-man for Richards and the recently-activated Thomas Hatch, Ryan Borucki was moved to the 60-Day IL, though this doesn’t appear to be a result of a setback, and is probably just a procedural move. Trent Thornton has found himself demoted a day after getting blown out in Baltimore. Anybody who’s had the pleasure of watching him pitch recently could probably tell you this was a long time coming.
Is Trevor Richards the final piece the embattled bullpen needs? Will Bowden Francis supplant Alek Manoah, Nate Pearson, and Simeon Woods Richardson as the Jays’ Number One pitching prospect? Will my broken heart ever be mended? All these questions and more answered on this solemnly rowdy episode of JAYSLAM.
SO LONG. GOODBYE. I’LL SEE YOU WHEN I SEE YOU.
One of the quintessential baseball feelings for any fan is the pang of sadness when a struggling baseball player is traded, and the move makes all the sense in the world on paper, from every conceivable logical viewpoint, but it still blows, because you so badly wanted to see him succeed with your team.
It’s no secret that Rowdy’s had awful results at the plate so far this year, slashing .209/.272/.338 with a 65 wRC+, earning several demotions to Triple-A. He’s hitting the ball harder than ever before (49.1 HardHit%, in the top 12% of Major League hitters with at least 100 batted ball events), and his xwOBACON (Expected wOBA on contact. Essentially a measure of how well he hits the ball) of .390 is almost exactly the same as in 2020 (.391). But whether through luck or some other reason, that hasn’t translated into results. His strikeouts are also up (15.7 K% in 2020, 21.9 K% in 2021), and his walks are down (8.7 BB% in 2020, 6 BB% in 2021).
I’d been high on Rowdy going into this season, especially after what looked like a breakout 2020. In my Spring Training preview, I said the following about Tellez:
Reverting back to the .227/.293/.449 slash line and 91 wRC+ marks he slumped to in 2019 would spell doom for an offence-first player who’s likely competing for playing time, mostly at designated hitter. However, if he keeps his new approach intact, I don’t think there’s any reason to believe he can’t be closer to his 2020.
Uh, safe to say doom has been spelt. I can’t speak for his approach; the only notable discrepancy I noticed between 2020 and 2021 in his plate discipline section on Baseball Savant was a higher tendency to not swing on pitches in the zone, as well as a much lower likelihood to swing at both first pitches and “Meatballs”.
First base/designated hitters have to hit the shit out of the ball to be truly valuable, and if a 91 wRC+ wasn’t going to cut it, a 65 wRC+ certainly wasn’t going to either. Which isn’t to say that he’s never going to figure it out eventually. As I said, he seems to have seen a bit of bad luck this year, and there haven’t been drastic changes in his profile, at least none that shouldn’t be able to be addressed. But it wasn’t going to happen in Toronto. First base is occupied by a fairly good player, and should a backup be needed, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Cavan Biggio have both played first base in very short stints with no notable embarrassments that I can remember. The DH spot is needed for whenever Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or an outfielder needs a half-day off. Rowdy’s even made redundant by the presence of Corey Dickerson, who seems fated for the role of a left-handed bench bat.
In Milwaukee, Tellez has a path to more consistent playing time. With Blue Jays Legends Daniel Vogelbach and Travis Shaw out with an injury, Rowdy’s only real competition is Keston Hiura, who’s having a truly awful year. Hopefully, Rowdy can start mashing with the Brewers and we’ll regret giving him up (though ideally, Richards is nails with us, so maybe I don’t actually feel THAT strongly about it).
Until then, happy trails old friend.
THE NEW BLUE JAYS
Trevor Richards
A week after the much-needed addition of Adam Cimber comes the addition of Trevor Richards, who figures to step into the Jays’ bullpen and figure in as one of the few theoretically steady, trustworthy pitchers in the relief corps.
Richards was mainly used as a meh starting pitcher with the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays from 2018 to 2020. In 2020, he transitioned to a swingman role with the Rays but bounced up and down between Tampa Bay and the Alternate Site. In 2021, he and Willy Adames were traded to the Milwaukee Brewers in May for J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen. Between the Rays and Brewers, Richards has put together a solid season, with a 3.69 ERA and a nearly-matching 3.77 FIP in 31 ⅓ innings.
He’ll walk his fair share of hitters (9.3 BB%), but not as obscene an amount as you see with other relievers, some of which are currently employed by the Toronto Blue Jays Baseball Club Ltd. His biggest weak point is a Robbie Ray-esque hard contact rate (44.7 Hard Hit%). However, what elevates Richards to “good, if unspectacular, big league reliever” status is his strikeout rate, in the 89th percentile of all relief pitchers.
Richards’ two main pitches are a four-seam fastball that he’ll throw over 50% of the time and a terrific changeup. He’ll also use a curveball sometimes to set up his other pitches, though his stronger offerings are definitely his two primary ones.
Neither the Rays nor the Brewers used Richards in high-leverage situations very often, likely owing to his propensity to get hit hard and his odd reverse splits (this year, lefties are only slashing .132/.233/.264 with a .221 wOBA against Richards, while righties have hit .270/.324/.492 with a .349 wOBA). However, in terms of needing a key strikeout in a crucial moment of the game, there are few better guys to turn to this season than Trevor Richards. Also notably: He’s under team control until 2024. You can bet your life that the Jays will take that.
Bowden Francis
25-year-old Floridian pitcher Bowden Francis was drafted by the Brewers in the seventh round of the 2017 draft from Chipola College. A starting pitcher, Francis started off the season with the Double-A Biloxi Shuckers, with whom he spent most of the 2019 season. After four starts with Biloxi, he was promoted to the Triple-A Nashville Sounds, where he pitched solidly over seven starts, with a 3.49 ERA, 3.75 FIP, and 4.73 xFIP. Over his eleven starts in the Brewers’ system, Francis has pitched to a 3.62 ERA, 27.3 K%, and 7.1 BB%.
Francis came in at 25 on Fangraphs 2021 list of Top 42 Brewers Prospects, where Eric Longenhagen had the following write-up on him:
“Francis has had statistical success through the upper minors by relying on plus command of three fringe pitches. He added a slider for this year and now has four distinct offerings, of which the slider has quickly become the best. It’s also hard, which is important because Francis’ curveball is a low-70s rainbow, averaging about 73 mph, while the slider has been up to 87 and sits a bit below that. He has a power pitcher’s style with soft stuff, but Francis feel to pitch is excellent and I think he can stick toward the back of a rotation.”
That’ll play! Probably!
WHAT’S LEFT TO BE DONE?
With Richards coming on and with Borucki ideally coming back soon, the short-term full strength bullpen looks something like this, give or take a reliever:
High-leverage:
Jordan Romano
Ideally mid-leverage, but likely forced into high-leverage:
Adam Cimber
Trevor Richards
Ryan Borucki
Rafael Dolis
Tim Mayza
Jacob Barnes
Mid-leverage, probably better suited for lower leverage:
Anthony Castro
Who even fucking knows at this point:
Tyler Chatwood
One more lefty maybe:
Anthony Kay (if a long reliever is needed) or
Tayler Saucedo
While it’s looking a lot better than it did a few weeks ago, there’s still work to be done with the bullpen, especially with regards to those high-leverage roles. And again, Julian Merryweather coming back would be a boost, but the Jays probably shouldn’t be counting on that at this point, as much as it pains me to say it.
Craig Kimbrel certainly is an option, as is Richard Rodríguez, though there are some concerns about his spin rate after the crackdown on sticky stuff (none of which I care to look into as of right now). Taylor Rogers, Ian Kennedy, Caleb Thielbar, Kendall Graveman, and Scott Barlow could all be options along with several others, depending on their various teams. Given Steven Matz and Hyun Jin Ryu’s recent struggles in the rotation, the Jays may get creative and try to swing a deal to address the starters as well in one fell swoop, though I find it more likely that they’ll try to ride the rotation out down the line.