Toronto Blue Jays Post-Trade Deadline Report Cards
It is officially No Longer Early. With two-thirds of the season in the bag, we now have a better idea of what of your Toronto Blue Jays have been: An extremely talented, sometimes dominant, sometimes frustrating, but nonetheless fun to watch team that’s gotten burned by bad luck and bullpen implosions of varying frequency.
Even more so than when we last did this in June, we now have a big enough sample size to zero in and look at individual players and make some even more not entirely baseless judgments. And what better way to do so then with letter grades, an assessment tool burned into our fragile mends at a young age by a harsh, uncaring education system?
Like in June, for the sake of conciseness and/or my continued personal investment in this post, I can’t look at every single one of the players that have played a game for Toronto this season. I'll be looking at players who have had an entirely arbitrary minimum of plate appearances or innings pitched. For those players who’ve appeared on the previous list, the requirements are as follows:
Catchers: 42 plate appearances since June 4.
Other position players: 84 plate appearances since June 4.
Starting pitchers: 27 innings pitched since June 4.
Relief pitchers: 9 innings pitched since June 4.
Those who hadn’t appeared in the first list don’t have to meet the “since June 4” requirement. Anyone who doesn’t make the cut will have their marks deferred till the next reporting period (by which I mean, after the regular season or playoffs).
And obviously, players who are no longer in the organization won’t be included. So I will not have the chance to continue imploring people to be patient with Rowdy Tellez. Turns out I may have been right though!
He had no place on this team, but I miss my son so much.
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All stats through August 7, 2021 (109 games)
CATCHERS
Reese McGuire
Season stats: 162 plate appearances, .278/.323/.384, 19.8 K%, 5.6 BB%, .310 wOBA, 94 wRC+, 7.3 DEF, 1.2 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .246 xBA, .346 xSLG, .284 xwOBA, .326 xwOBACON, 31.9 HardHit%
For a guy who the Jays were more than willing to give up on before the regular season, Reese McGuire has but together a nice little season as, more often than not, Toronto’s primary catcher, thanks to injuries to Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk.
There’s a lot of smoke and mirrors to McGuire’s offence. It’s driven by a lot of BABIP look and he has no power to speak of. Since the beginning of July, he’s had a 61 wRC+. But even taking regression into account, he seems to be rounding into a batter who will at least hit enough to be a more-than-capable backup catcher.
McGuire, whose glove has always been his calling card, is an okay framer who’s caught a surprisingly high nine of 14 baserunners stealing. And, again, even if/when his bat crashes back down to earth, his defence should make him a good guy to keep around as a backup catcher.
GRADE: B
Did not make the cut: Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen
RELIEF PITCHERS
Tim Mayza
Stats since June 4: 23 games, 20 ⅔ innings, 1.31 ERA, 2.54 FIP, 25 K%, 5.3 BB%, .153 BA Against, 0.44 HR/9
Season stats: 44 games, 36 innings, 3.75 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 25 K%, 6.3 BB%, .216 BA Against, .267 wOBA Against, 0.75 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 3.23 xERA, 2.98 xFIP, 21.1 Whiff%, .230 xBA Against, .278 xwOBA Against, .334 xwOBACON, 0.88 xHR/9
The ERA-inflating blowups that plagued Tim Mayza’s surface-level stats got further diluted as the season went on and the lefty continued to be excellent in higher-leverage situations.
One could make a not-insane argument that Mayza was the team’s most reliable reliever for most of the middle third of the season. So of course he just got placed on the IL.
He doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts (although he does get a fair bit of those), relying on good command and two pitches in his sinker and slider that batters just haven’t been able to barrel up.
JUNE GRADE: B-
AUGUST GRADE: A-
Jordan Romano
Stats since June 4: 19 games, 19 ⅔ innings, 3.66 ERA, 5.30 FIP, 28.2 K%, 9.0 BB%, .254 BA Against, 2.41 HR/9
Season stats: 39 games, 38 ⅓ innings, 2.82 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 30.2 K%, 11.3 BB%, .206 BA Against, .261 wOBA Against, 1.17 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 2.82 xERA, 3.74 xFIP, 31.7 Whiff%, .181 xBA Against, .261 xwOBA Against, .313 xwOBACON Against, 0.87 xHR/9
Romano has been low-key pretty shaky for a while now. While he’s lowered his walk rate a little bit since last we checked in on him, but it’s come at the cost of a drop in spin rate (*cough*) and a drop in strikeouts.
If that’s not enough, he’s also getting hit harder, although that change hasn’t been anywhere near as drastic. It’s less of a concern than the walks.
Unfortunately, I have to take away the extra grade points for the mound mannerisms, since they’ve been toned down. Frankly shameful.
JUNE GRADE: A-
AUGUST GRADE: B-
Trent Thornton
Stats since June 4: 11 games, 13 innings, 8.31 ERA, 7.01 FIP, 25.0 K%, 6.7 BB%, .309 BA Against, 3.46 HR/9
Season stats: 28 games, 39 ⅓ innings, 4.58 ERA, 5.63 FIP, 24.6 K%, 8.2 BB%, .266 BA Against, .371 wOBA Against, 2.29 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 5.90 xERA, 4.27 xFIP, 24.1 Whiff%, .268 xBA Against, .365 xwOBA Against, .455 xwOBACON Against, 2.08 xHR/9
Hooooooooooo boy
At the beginning of the season, Thornton was looking like a strting pitcher whose stuff would translate better into a long-term role in the bullpen. Now, even that’s looking pretty dicey.
While his command and spin rates still get batters to chase, leading to solid strikeout and walk rates, but when he leaves pitches in the zone, he just gets absolutely crushed. His four-seamer has been absolutely pulverized to the tune of a .476 xwOBA.
JUNE GRADE: B-
AUGUST GRADE: D+
Rafael Dolis
Stats since June 4: 15 games, 11 ⅔ innings, 4.63 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 26.7 K%, 16.7 BB%, .265 BA Against, 0.00 HR/9
Season stats: 35 games, 29 ⅔ innings, 4.55 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 27.0 K%, 16.1 BB%, .196 BA Against, .295 wOBA Against, 0.61 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 3.93 xERA, 4.75 xFIP, 29.4 Whiff%, .202 xBA Against, .304 xwOBA Against, .329 xwOBACON Against, 0.76 xHR/9
Rafael Dolis is Rafael Dolis. And if you were expecting Rafael Dolis to be anything but Rafael Dolis, then maybe that’s your own damn fault.
To be entirely fair to Dolis, he’s been hurt for a solid chunk of the season. But to be fair for your intelligence, this isn’t exactly phenomenal stuff that Dolis is providing. He’s still a high strikeout guy who’s surprisingly good at limiting contact, but who can get utterly doomed by completely losing the zone every few batters.
Again though, to be fair, he has been muuuuuuuch better since moving to lower leverage situations. Now keep him there, please and thank you.
JUNE GRADE: B
AUGUST GRADE: B
Anthony Castro
Stats since June 4: 12 games, 10 innings, 9.00 ERA, 5.07 FIP, 34 K%, 6.4 BB%, .302 BA Against, 2.7 HR/9
Season stats: 22 games, 20 ⅓ innings, 5.31 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 30.8 K%, 7.7 BB%, .247 BA Against, .320 wOBA Against, 1.33 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 3.28 xERA, 3.54 xFIP, 31.5 Whiff%, .208 xBA Against, .280 xwOBA Against, .364 xwOBACON Against, 1.06 xHR/9
Stefan Salegio, June 2021:
“[Castro] has struggled with control a bit since returning from free agency. If he can work through those issues and get back on track he can be an absolute weapon in the back end of the bullpen.”
What a goddamn fool I was.
His control has been better, I guess? More worryingly though, despite his terrific stuff, hitters are teeing off on his 4-seamer when he leaves it in the zone. He’s been similar to Trent Thornton in that way.
JUNE GRADE: B
AUGUST GRADE: D+
Tayler Saucedo
Season stats: 17 games, 14 ⅓ innings, 4.40 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 23.3 K%, 6.7 BB%, .250 BA Against, .339 wOBA Against, 0.63 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 5.00 xERA, 3.16 xFIP, 36.9 Whiff%, .289 xBA Against, .340 xwOBA Against, .419 xwOBACON Against, 0.69 xHR/9
The latest in the “fringe-MLB player that fans become infatuated with after a few good outings” saga.
Tayler Saucedo’s pitch mix is much more diverse than much more relievers. While he’ll use a sinker about half of the time, he’ll switch gears to a slider, curveball, and changeup sometimes, which keeps hitters on their toes, getting a moderate amount of strikeouts while limiting walks.
Good thing to, because his fastballs (the sinker, and something that Savant refers to as a four-seamer, which I am skeptical of) are getting hit pretty hard.
GRADE: B
Adam Cimber
Season stats (w/Blue Jays): 15 games, 15 innings, 0.60 ERA, 1.90 FIP, 20.4 K%, 1.9 BB%, .151 BA Against, 0.00 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats (w/Marlins and Blue Jays): 3.09 xERA, 4.48 xFIP, 19 Whiff%, .235 xBA Against, .272 xwOBA Against, .293 xwOBACON Against, 0.16 xHR/9
For as great as José Berríos has been, Adam Cimber has been excellent, almost immediately cementing a role in the back end of Toronto’s bullpen. He’s been exactly as advertised and then some.
Cimber just refuses to walk anybody, and while he doesn’t strike much hitters out either (he’s even been overperforming his career strikeout rates with the Jays), batters just haven’t been able to square any of his three pitches up.
Extra points for being a submariner. Submariners are cool. No further elaboration.
GRADE: A
Trevor Richards
Season stats (w/Blue Jays): 10 games, 11 ⅓ innings, 2.38 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 38.1 K%, 9.5 BB%, .158 BA Against, 1.59 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats (w/Rays, Brewers, and Blue Jays): 3.69 xERA, 3.61 xFIP, 32.8 Whiff%, .225 BA Against, .296 xwOBA Against, .409 xwOBACON Against, 1.48 xHR/9
None of my effusive praise for Cimber is to say that Trevor Richards has been bad. If anything, he’s been really good. He’s just got a few more exploitable flaws.
Richards gets hit hard, and he walks a few too many batters. He sure does make up for a big chunk of that via strikeouts though, ranking in the 93rd percentile in K%. Much of those strikeouts can be traced to his changeup, which is absolutely lethal.
GRADE: B+
Jacob Barnes
Season stats (w/Blue Jays): 9 games, 9 innings, 6.00 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 30.2 K%, 14 BB%, .250 BA Against, .317 wOBA Against, 1.00 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats (w/Mets and Blue Jays): 4.28 xERA, 4.19 xFIP, 26.7 Whiff%, .219 xBA Against, .317 xwOBA Against, .385 xwOBACON Against, 2.02 xHR/9
Jacob Barnes came to the Jays exactly when he needed to: When there were literally no better options and the Jays were scrambling for warm bodies in the bullpen.
Jacob Barnes also left the Jays exactly when he needed to: When much, much better options became available.
He was surprisingly good for a fair bit of strikeouts and not a ton of hard contact, but the high walk rate really undermined him near the end of his Jays tenure. He served his purpose, and was even good for a few games! But he had DFA written all over him.
GRADE: C+
Did not make the cut: Ryan Borucki, Nick Allgeyer, Patrick Murphy, Carl Edwards Jr., Kirby Snead, Joakim Soria, Brad Hand
STARTING PITCHERS
Robbie Ray
Stats since June 4: 12 games, 72 ⅓ innings, 2.36 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 31.3 K%, 7.3 BB%, .195 BA Against, 1.12 HR/9, 2.8 bWAR
Season stats: 22 games, 130 ⅓ innings, 2.90 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 30.2 K%, 6.8 BB%, .213 BA Against, .290 wOBA Against, 1.59 HR/9, 4.3 bWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 3.58 xERA, 3.45 xFIP, 31.7 Whiff%, .223 xBA Against, .292 xwOBA Against, .388 xwOBACON Against, 1.34 xHR/9
Every start that goes by just seems to serve as further combination that Robbie Ray is the real deal.
While his walk rate has trickled up a little bit, it’s still well better than the average MLB pitcher.
He can get clobbered by hard contact when he gets figured out, but he blowups have become fewer and further between as the season has gone on.
It definitely helps matters that he induces a ton of strikeouts despite being a bit wild, as his stuff is good enough that just letting it ride and getting it in the zone is often enough to get swings and misses.
HE STAY
JUNE GRADE: A-
AUGUST GRADE: A
Hyun Jin Ryu
Stats since June 4: 11 games, 64 ⅔ innings, 3.76 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 16.5 K%, 6.4 BB%, .245 BA Against, 1.11 HR/9, 0.8 bWAR
Season stats: 21 games, 123 innings, 3.22 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 20.4 K%, 5.0 BB%, .241 BA Against, 1.02 HR/9, 2.9 bWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 3.99 xERA, 3.90 xFIP, 22.5 Whiff%, .253 xBA Against, .293 xwOBA Against, .365 xwOBACON Against, 1.13 xHR/9
Hyun Jin Ryu’s not quite looked like himself over a solid portion of his starts the last few months. He’s been better lately, but will still have starts where he just doesn’t quite look at himself.
Ryu’s never been a big strikeout or walk guy, but when he’s off, he’ll be completely unable to miss bats, and will lose his vaunted control sometimes, leading to both walks and pitches left over the heart of the plate. Which, more often than not, are promptly crushed.
I’m not a huge believer in the idea of personal catchers, and
When he’s on though, he’s one of the better pitchers in baseball, as we damn well know. It’s going to take a much loner shaky stretch for a loss off confidence to be warranted.
JUNE GRADE: A
AUGUST GRADE: B
Ross Stripling
Stats since June 4: 11 games, 54 ⅓ innings, 3.98 ERA, 4.82 FIP, 23.2 K%, 7.1 BB%, .217 BA Against, 1.82 HR/9, 0.8 bWAR
Season stats: 19 games, 91 ⅓ innings, 4.43 ERA, 4.83 FIP, 23.7 K%, 7.0 BB%, .239 BA Against, 1.87 HR/9, 1.1 bWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 4.52 xERA, 4.38 xFIP, 24.7 Whiff%, .242 xBA Against, .325 xwOBA Against, .397 xwOBACON Against, 1.67 xHR/9
Thanks apparently in large part to Pete Walker, Ross Stripling has turned into a competent starting pitcher. Stripling’s mechanical adjustments have resulted in an improved ability to limit hard contact with his curveball and changeup.
Since his May 19 drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox, Stripling has a 3.39 ERA (4.60 FIP). When you remove his July 19 start (in which he only managed to get one out off of the stupid fraudulent Red Sox), that dips down to a 2.59 ERA (3.85 FIP). Lesson learned: Just keep him the fuck away from the Red Sox.
JUNE GRADE: C-
AUGUST GRADE: B
Steven Matz
Stats since June 4: 8 games, 36 ⅔ innings, 4.42 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 21.2 K%, 6.7 BB%, .294 BA Against, 1.47 HR/9, 0.3 bWAR
Season stats: 19 games, 96 ⅓ innings, 4.30 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 23.6 K%, 6.2 BB%, .273 BA Against, 1.21 HR/9, 0.9 bWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 4.16 xERA, 3.73 xFIP, 23.9 Whiff%, .258 xBA Against, .313 xwOBA Against, .379 xwOBACON Against, 1.21 xHR/9
Steven Matz has come back down to Earth a bit since his torrid start, but he’s rounded into a solid, if unspectacular starter.
Bouncing back from his godawful 2020 in a big way, Matz has rounded into a solid shape. He doesn’t walk much batters or get hit especially hard, though he can still be vulnerable to the big inning. With that said, he’s nowhere near as prone to avalanching as much as he would with the Mets when things got dicey.
JUNE GRADE: B
AUGUST GRADE: B-
Alek Manoah
Season stats: 10 games, 52 ⅓ innings, 2.58 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 28.2 K%, 8.9 BB%, .179 BA Against, 1.20 HR/9, 1.6 bWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 3.28 xERA, 4.12 xFIP, 29.7 Whiff%, .196 xBA Against, .280 xwOBA Against, .335 xwOBACON Against, 1.13 xHR/9
Over the first 10 starts of his big league career, Alek Manoah has been so much better than we could ever reasonably expect out of a 23-year-old who had only pitched 35 professional innings prior to getting called up.
Seriously, look at this. LOOK AT THIS.
Manoah could certainly stand to work on his command, but as erratic as he can be, he doesn’t walk as much guys as one might think, as he’ll just shift gears and try to overpower hitters in the zone if he falls behind.
He could certainly stand to, uh, maybe not hit as much batters though.
The vibes on this man are incredible, for real. The energy he exudes is infectious.
GRADE: A-
Anthony Kay
Season stats: 11 games, 33 ⅔ innings, 5.61 ERA, 5.42 FIP, 25.0 K%, 11.5 BB%, .281 BA Against, 1.87 HR/9, -0.1 bWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 5.21 xERA, 4.09 xFIP, 25.7 Whiff%, .254 xBA Against, .382 xwOBA Against, .410 xwOBACON Against, 1.63 xHR/9
Despite his rough surface-level starts, it’s occasionally looked like Kay’s peripherals indicate that he’s a better pitcher than his ERA would indicate. He’s got a good strikeout rate and he limits harder contact, but his command has been extremely suspect.
By my rough analysis, he’s a pitcher that needs to spot his pitches to really exceed, but he hasn’t displayed the command to do so, leading to either walk or pitches left over the heart of the plate.
GRADE: D+
Did not make the cut: José Berríos, Thomas Hatch
OUTFIELDERS
Teoscar Hernández
Stats since June 4: 212 plate appearances, .288/.330/.495, 25.5 K%, 5.2 BB%, .352 wOBA, 123 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR
Season stats: 374 plate appearances, .293/.340/.493, 25.4 K%, 6.1 BB%, .356 wOBA, 126 wRC+, -5.2 DEF, 2.0 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .279 xBA, .520 xSLG, .362 xwOBA, .466 xwOBACON, 47.2 HardHit%
Teo hasn’t been hitting the ball quite as hard (though he’s still in the 80th percentile) and there’s a ton of strikeouts and very few walks in the game, but all told, he’s still a very good power-speed corner outfield.
Of course, his most important role on the team remains the job he shares with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. as Prime Minister of Good Vibes.
With regards to defence, despite the occasional misplay, he’s turned himself into a perfectly fine corner outfield, oscillating between above- and below-average.
JUNE GRADE: A-
AUGUST GRADE: A-
Randal Grichuk
Stats since June 4: 197 plate appearances, .216/.254/.378, 22.8 K%, 4.1 BB%, .272 wOBA, 68 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR
Season stats: 414 plate appearances, .253/.287/.450, 21.0 K%, 4.1 BB%, .314 wOBA, 97 wRC+, -0.7 DEF, 0.7 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .239 xBA, .418 xSLG, .306 xwOBA, .367 xwOBACON, 43.5 HardHit%
*Sadly putting my ‘Is Randal Grichuk Finally for Real???’-branded t-shirt, poster, and megaphone away until next year.
It’s all gone downhill for Grich since an excellent April, and he now finds himself in a battle for playing time with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Corey Dickerson.
I haven’t been able to zero in on a clear reason for Grichuk’s numbers falling off a cliff, but broadly, speaking, he’s just not been able to make solid contact.
At least his glove don’t slump though. With Springer returning, Grichuk’s played more right field, where he’s much more suited than centre field.
JUNE GRADE: B+
AUGUST GRADE: D
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Stats since June 4: 178 plate appearances, .259/.315/.457, 18.5 K%, 7.3 BB%, .328 wOBA, 107 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR
Season stats: 372 plate appearances, .262/296/.424, 19.9 K%, 4.6 BB%, .307 wOBA, 93 wRC+, -3.9 DEF, 0.3 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .245 xBA, .394 xSLG, .297 xwOBA, .350 xwOBACON, 38.1 HardHit%
It feels like Gurriel’s been on the verge of breaking out since the beginning of May, and aside from a slight boost, that hasn’t really happened yet.
Gurriel still hasn’t been able to consistently make as much hard contact as he has in previous seasons, and he, as expected, still refuses to walk. The abysmal walk rate is an expected part of his game, but for him to re-establish himself as an everyday player.
His ability to hit all pitches hard has dipped a bit, but his hard hit rate on curveballs has plummeted (40% in 2020, 8.3% in 2021).
Here’s something insane regarding Gurriel’s defence: While Outs Above Average hates him in left field, UZR has him hovering around average (+0.3), and DRS has him at +3. Predictably, this is entirely because of his arm, and UZR and DRS seem to suggest that Gurriel’s many defensive shortcomings are outweighed by his cannon of an arm. Sure doesn’t feel like it sometimes!
JUNE GRADE: C
AUGUST GRADE: C+
George Springer
Season stats: 180 plate appearances, .283/.363/.611, 25.6 K%, 11.1 BB%, .407 wOBA, 160 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .236 xBA, .505 xSLG, .359 xwOBA, .444 xwOBACON, 40.2 HardHit%
George
Springer
Is
A
Toronto
Blue
Jay
GRADE: A
Did not make the cut: Corey Dickerson
INFIELDERS
Marcus Semien
Stats since June 4: 241 plate appearances, .252/.307/.518, 20.3 K%, 7.1 BB, .348 wOBA, 120 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR
Season stats: 483 plate appearances, .276/.340/.532, 22.8 K%, 8.7 BB%, .369 wOBA, 135 wRC+, 7.2 DEF, 4.8 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .236 xBA, .505 xSLG, .359 xwOBA, .444 xwOBACON, 40.2 HardHit%
While he’s cooled off a little bit since the last update (“cooling off” is a relative term"), Marcus Semien continues to lead MLB second baseman in fWAR with 4.7.
Even more impressive: Among qualified position players, Semien ranks third among ALL players, behind only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cedric Mullins.
He’s been among the best second basemen in baseball, ranking seventh in Outs Above Average, second in UZR, and first overall in DRS.
JUNE GRADE: A
AUGUST GRADE: A-
Bo Bichette
Stats since June 4: 234 plate appearances, .324/.372/.481, 15.0 K%, 6.4 BB%, .369 wOBA, 134 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR
Season stats: 473 plate appearances, .293/.342/.478, 20.7 K%, 6.3 BB%, .353 wOBA, 123 wRC+, -3.2 DEF, 3.1 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .284 xBA, .486 xSLG, .356 xwOBA, .424 xwOBACON, 49.7 HardHit%
I am now at peace with Bo not walking much and compulsively wailing on stuff outside of the zone. It certainly helps matters that he’s been on a low-key tear since the start of June.
While we’re talking about fWAR, Bo’s been the third-best shortstop in the American League, behind only Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa. Fuck defence!
Speaking of his much-maligned defence, it’s, uh, certainly erratic. DRS has soured on him, ranking him at 18th out of 25 shortstops, while UZR and OAA both have him as the second-worst shortstop in baseball, ahead of only Fernando Tatís Jr. and Didi Gregorius, respectively.
JUNE GRADE: B
AUGUST GRADE: A-
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Stats since June 4: 231 plate appearances, .297/.381/.594, 18.6 K%, 11.7 BB%, .410 wOBA, 162 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR
Season stats: 463 plate appearances, .316/.410/.629, 16.6 K%, 13.0 BB%, .433 wOBA, 178 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .309 xBA, .608 xSLG, .427 xwOBA, .481 xwOBACON, 54.5 HardHit%
Over the last couple months, Vladdy has stumbled, going from the best hitter in baseball to merely elite. Who is still leading the lead in fWAR. That’ll do.
Defensively, Vladdy certainly passes the eye test with flying colours. The metrics are at least okay with him over there, with DRS and OAA having him in the middle of the pack, and UZR ranking him sixth-best among all first basemen.
Cavan Biggio
Stats since June 4: 139 plate appearances, .227/.317/.387, 22.3 K%, 12.2 BB%, .304 wOBA, 90 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR
Season stats: 290 plate appearances, .215/.316/.360, 26.9 K%, 12.8 BB% .294 wOBA, 83 wRC+, -3.5 DEF, 0.0 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .198 xBA, .316 xSLG, .278 xwOBA, .317 xwOBACON, 30.6 HardHit%
You hate to see Keith Law being proven right. I kid. Kind of.
Cavan Biggio had a terrific month of June in which he posted a 159 wRC+. Which is terrific! But uh, since then, he’s posted a 26 wRC+. Not so terrific!
Biggio’s best tool is still intact. He still walks a ton, and he doesn’t chase. But the thing is that he doesn’t hit the ball hard, so pitchers have discovered that they can huck the ball in the zone and he won’t be able to do much with it. This is a main contributor to a balloning strikeout rate relative to last year.
His defence still gets a lot of flak, and it’s hard to argue against it. No metric likes him at third. In fact, the only position that the metrics seem to like him at is second base and even then, the consensus seems to peg him as hovering around average. With Jordan Groshans looming, the “Biggio at third” experiment may soon be over.
Before his most recent trip to the IL, Biggio had ended up losing a lot of playing time to Santiago Espinal, a better defender and, it could be argued, a better hitter, despite not being and especially good batter himself. Best case scenario: This terrible season from Biggio can be attributed to his injury. If it’s not though? I think this is confirmation that maybe Biggio doesn’t need to be a starter, and a utility role may be the best option to avoid having him get so overexposed.
JUNE GRADE: D+
AUGUST GRADE: C-
Santiago Espinal
Season stats: 158 plate appearances, .301/.354/.411, 14.6 K%, 7.6 BB%, .335 wOBA, 112 wRC+, 2.8 DEF, 1.1 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .256 xBA, .341 xSLG, .294 xwOBA, .310 xwOBACON, 20.3 HardHit%
The latest entry in the “Utility Infielder Winning the Hearts of Jays Fans Through Great Defence and Smoke-and-Mirrors Offence” canon. Espinal has slapped his way into a starting role with the team, platooning with the now-injured Cavan Biggio as well as Breyvic Valera.
No one should be under any illusions about what Santiago Espinal is. That means taking the offence the Jays have gotten from him with a grain of salt.
Espinal’s calling card is his defence, which has provided a nice respite from Biggio’s crude attempts at glovework at the hot corner. The metrics love him, with OAA ranking him as the third-best third baseman in the American League behind Matt Chapman and José Ramírez.
However, I, a cultured individual, cherish him most for his role on the Vibes Committee along with Teo, Lourdes, Vladdy, Springer, Manoah, and others.
Did not make the cut: Breyvic Valera