Toronto Blue Jays Early Season Report Cards
We are now in Early June. It’s about that time where baseball fans and front offices can take a look at their team’s production and place in the standings and make some not entirely baseless judgements about player performance and where the team could stand to improve. And the Jays obviously aren’t any exception.
With a third of the season behind us, it’s time to look at some Jays players and take stock of how they’ve done via some bullet points as well as everyone’s favourite reductive holdovers from the education system: Letter grades. None of this is to say that these guys are what their stats say they are at this point of the year (I certainly think Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is better than a sub-90 wRC+ hitter, for instance), but it’s still worth taking a look at.
Obviously, I can’t look at every single one of the 40 players that have played in a game for Toronto this season. Frankly, I can’t think of a bigger waste of everyone’s time than agonizing over what letter grade Jeremy Beasley deserves in my made-up evaluation. So I'll only be looking at players who have had an admittedly arbitrary minimum of plate appearances (42 for catchers, 84 for other position players) or innings pitched (27 for starting pitchers, 9 for relief pitchers). Anyone who doesn’t make the cut will have their marks deferred till the next reporting period (I’m gonna say the trade deadline. Probably).
And obviously, players who are no longer in the organization won’t be included. Good thing too, because if I ever need to talk about Gwinnett Stripers relief pitcher Tanner Roark ever again, it’ll be too soon.
Before getting into it, humour me as I plead for engagement. If you like what Jayslam is doing, please consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or an enemy! I’m happy with either, really.
Likewise, if you’ve been enjoying Jayslam, want to see more of it, or want to support its continued existence, consider getting a paid subscription! Free subscriptions are greatly appreciated as well, but paid ones get you access to exclusive posts such as the post on rule changes, as well as to the comments section.
All stats through June 3, 2021
CATCHERS
Danny Jansen
Stats: 118 plate appearances, .144/.239/.260, 26.3 K%, 10.2 BB%, .230 wOBA, 43 wRC+, 2.0 DEF, -0.3 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .200 xBA, .327 xSLG, .273 xwOBA, .318 xwOBACON, 32.4 HardHit%
Danny Jansen is starting to seem like one of those hitters who just have perpetually bad luck at the plate. And he definitely does, but the thing is, even when you take his expected stats into account, he’s still not a particularly good hitter, aside from a good eye that gets him some walks.
He has hit better since the beginning of May. If he can just be a below-average hitter the rest of the way, as opposed to an unplayably bad one, he’s been a solid enough defender that the Jays will take that. It might also help stave off Alejandro Kirk and Reese McGuire, who have threatened for playing time at various points.
GRADE: D+
Alejandro Kirk
Stats: 46 plate appearances, .225/.326/.475, 16 K%, 4 BB%, .349 wOBA, 122 wRC+, -0.8 DEF, 0.2 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .259 xBA, .477 xSLG, .361 xwOBA, .366 xwOBACON, 41.2 HardHit%
Kirk got off to a slow start but was beginning to take off by the end of April, threatening to usurp the starting catcher job. Then he went down with a hip flexor strain the same weekend that George Springer went back on the IL. Because God hates us.
Before going down, Kirk saw some time as Robbie Ray’s personal catcher. As for the rest of his defence, in a small sample size, he’s graded out as fine. I hope he hurries back soon, I’m really dying to hear what Buck Martinez’s opinions on catchers setting up on one knee are, and he’s so reluctant to express them.
GRADE: B-
Did not make the cut: Reese McGuire
RELIEF PITCHERS
Rafael Dolis
Stats: 20 games, 18 innings, 4.50 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 27.3 K%, 15.6 BB%, .143 BA Against, .260 wOBA Against, 1.00 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 3.18 xERA, 4.57 xFIP, 30 Whiff%, .185 xBA Against, .283 xwOBA Against, .297 xwOBACON Against, 1.00 xHR/9
As was more or less expected, Dolis has kind of been a nightmare to watch this season. Not in the sense that he’s bad though, if anything, he’s been solid. His high walk rates are back with a vengeance though, and as I said in Jayslam’s first ever post, he remains the best argument in favour of a pitch clock this side of Pedro Báez.
With that said, he’s easily been one of the Jays’ better relievers, save for the stretch at the beginning of the year when he was working through an injury.
GRADE: B
Jordan Romano
Stats: 21 games, 19 ⅔ innings, 1.83 ERA, 2.16 FIP, 32.1 K%, 13.6 BB%, .157 BA Against, .228 wOBA Against, 0.00 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 2.24 xERA, 3.57 xFIP, 37.7 Whiff%, .160 xBA Against, .238 xwOBA Against, .265 xwOBACON Against, 0.00 xHR/9
For a while, I considered giving Romano a B+. The grade may seem low, and it kind of is, but I like to think of it as a warning shot. Romano’s been excellent overall this year, but his walk rate has jumped a bit since last year, and he’s not striking quite as many people out. This is potentially only a few great outings away from being rectified, but it’s worth keeping a wary eye on.
Adding an extra grade point for mound mannerisms, because that shit’s entertaining.
GRADE: A-
Tyler Chatwood
Stats: 19 games, 20 ⅓ innings, 3.10 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 28.9 K%, 16.9 BB%, .162 BA Against, .251 wOBA Against, 0.00 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 3.27 xERA, 3.83 xFIP, 35.2 Whiff%, .195 xBA Against .287 xwOBA Against, .304 xwOBACON Against, 0.00 xHR/9
I can’t grade based solely on the last few innings, but GOLLY, that must have set a land speed record for pissing away an A grade.
For a good long while, Chatwood was the team’s best reliever. Aside from his current stretch, he’s not only shown strikeout ability but also avoided hard contact.
Despite his recent struggles, there’s little reason he can’t round back into form, but DAMN his latest outings have been shockingly terrible.
GRADE: B
Joel Payamps
Stats: 17 games, 22 ⅔ innings, 2.78 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 14.4 K%, 8.9 BB%, .222 BA Against, .273 wOBA Against, 1.19 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 2.93 xERA, 5.31 xFIP, 25.8 Whiff%, .206 xBA Against, .273 xwOBA Against, .282 xwOBACON Against, 0.95 xHR/9
For as much as he was punted around in the offseason by the Diamondbacks, Red Sox, and Blue Jays, Payamps has really made a statement. That statement being “please, stop making me move. For the love of god, I am a human being.”
Payamps has absolutely proven that he belongs in the big leagues, at least for now. This is owed to his ability to limit hard contact. He’s been in the top five percent of the league at that.
The tradeoff is that his walk rate isn’t terrific, and his strikeout rate is even worse.
With that said, while the Jays probably don’t want to get to the point where they consistently need to use him in high leverage relief, you could so, so much worse in middle and low leverage innings. And it doesn’t hurt that he can go multiple innings.
GRADE: B-
Trent Thornton
Stats: 17 games, 26 ⅓ innings, 2.73 ERA, 4.92 FIP, 24.3 K%, 9 BB%, .242 BA Against, .343 wOBA Against, 1.71 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 4.80 xERA, 4.22 xFIP, 25 Whiff%, .253 xBA Against, .343 xwOBA Against, .418 xwOBACON, 1.50 xHR/9
Whether he wants to or not, Thornton is making a pretty solid case to keep him in the bullpen full-time.
So far, has been flipping the bird to some pretty lacklustre peripherals. Aside from getting hit pretty hard though, his below-average strikeout and walk rates have yet to really hurt him.
For what it’s worth, he does get batters to chase pitches out of the zone, which is no doubt aided by the high spin rates on his 4-seamer, cutter, and curveball.
GRADE: B-
Tim Mayza
Stats: 21 games, 15 ⅓ innings, 7.04 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 25 K%, 7.4 BB%, .290 BA Against, .357 wOBA Against, 1.17 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 3.68 xERA, 3.44 xFIP, 22 Whiff%, .241 xBA Against, .304 xwOBA Against, .367 xwOBACON, 1.47 xHR/9
A great story coming out of Spring Training.
He started the year strong but went through a long, shaky period that inflated his ERA despite his peripherals still looking okay at worst overall.
Despite appearances, his walk rate has been perfectly fine, and he doesn’t give up many fly balls.
GRADE: B-
Tommy Milone
Stats: Six games, 14 innings, 6.43 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 26.2 K%, 4.6 BB%, .323 BA Against, .398 wOBA Against, 1.93 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 5.01 xERA, 3.19 xFIP, 27.6 Whiff%, ,301 xBA Against, .349 xwOBA Against, .458 xwOBACON Against, 1.86 xHR/9
Remember when Milone started the year off with six innings of one-run ball in which he struck out eight guys? Good times.
Milone doesn’t really walk anybody, with the trade-off being that he’s not much of a strikeout guy either. The problem is he’s gotten knocked around a bit. He needs to induce more soft contact to have any sort of consistent success. Given that he’s on the 60-day IL now though, and was already kind of on the 40-man bubble, it’s anyone’s guess as to when exactly the opportunity to right the ship of his ugly ERA may come.
GRADE: C+, with an extra grade point added on account of his name. Tomaso Milone. Fantastic stuff.
Ryan Borucki
Stats: 13 games, 13 ⅓ innings, 4.05 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 27.5 K%, 9.8 BB%, .152 BA Against, .262 wOBA Against, 0.68 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 2.71 xERA, 3.20 xFIP, 33.7 Whiff%, .197 xBA Against, .262 xwOBA, .311 xwOBACON, 0.68 xHR/9
Before getting hurt, had done well to drastically cut his high 2020 walk rate. His slider remains his best pitch and is absolutely filthy-looking when it starts on the plate and cuts in on right-handed hitters.
He had also been inducing a whopping 65 percent ground ball rate.
GRADE: B+
Travis Bergen
Stats: 10 games, 10 ⅓ innings, 1.69 ERA, 6.04 FIP, 13 K%, 17.4 BB%, .139 BA Against, .281 wOBA Against, 0.84 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 4.46 xERA, 7.41 xFIP, 21.7 Whiff%, .189 xBA Against, .331 xwOBA, .275 xwOBACON, 0.84 xHR/9
Despite having a very solid curveball, he only uses it 13 percent of the time, otherwise using his 4-seam fastball.
The -4.4 K-BB% is atrocious to look at, but there is a bit of small sample size at play, as it goes from horrendous to merely very, very bad if you remove his last appearance before going on the IL, in which he walked three of four Tampa Bay Rays he faced.
Has gotten a lot of soft contact, which is as good a sign as any that he can outperform his dogshit FIP and xFIP.
GRADE: C
David Phelps
Stats: 11 games, 10 ⅓ innings, 0.87 ERA, 1.68 FIP, 35.7 K%, 9.5 BB%, .216 BA Against, .235 wOBA Against, 0.00 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 2.26 xERA, 3.02 xFIP, 31.6 Whiff%, .177 xBA Against, .240 xwOBA Against, .299 xwOBACON Against, 0.00 xHR/9
:’(
One of the unsung heroes of the bullpen before needing season-ending lat surgery.
The highest strikeout rate of any Blue Jay reliever listed here. He also limited solid contact, with a slightly elevated walk rate being his only real weakness.
GRADE: A-
Anthony Castro
Stats: 10 games, 10 ⅓ innings, 1.74 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 27.3 K%, 9.1 BB%, .184 BA Against, .232 wOBA Against, 0.00 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 2.98 xERA, 3.56 xFIP, 30.1 Whiff%, .205 xBA Against, .232 xwOBA Against, .336 xwOBACON, 0.61 xHR/9
At times has looked like an absolute diamond in the rough. Not sure how the Tigers let him go, but I guess they needed room in their bullpen for the likes of Joe Jiménez and Derek Holland.
Though the Jays did DFA him at one point, so I guess we’re not ones to talk.
His wipeout slider is his most-used pitch, at just under 60 percent of the time.
Has struggled with control a bit since returning from free agency. If he can work through those issues and get back on track he can be an absolute weapon in the back end of the bullpen.
GRADE: B
Did not make the cut: A.J. Cole, Ty Tice, Jeremy Beasley, Julian Merryweather, Carl Edwards Jr.
STARTING PITCHERS
Robbie Ray
Stats: 10 games, 58 innings, 3.57 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 29 K%, 6.3 BB%, .234 BA Against, .328 wOBA Against, 2.17 HR/9, 1.5 bWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 4.20 (nice) xERA, 3.34 xFIP, 33.7 Whiff, .247 xBA Against, .324 xwOBA Against, .431 xwOBACON, 1.91 xHR/9
Robbie Ray sure looked like the old Robbie Ray until his third start, at which point he apparently decided that walking people was kind of lame and decided to stop doing it.
Turns out, when you have the sheer stuff Robbie Ray does, it’s actually not that bad of an idea to aim in the middle of the plate and huck it in that general direction, letting movement to the rest.
He’s relented and walked a few batters in his last two starts, but to have his walk rate improve from the second percentile in 2020 to the 83rd percentile in 2021 has still been a huge improvement, especially when paired with a higher strikeout rate.
His weakest point has been the fact that he gets hit pretty hard. In the same stretch where he hasn’t been walking anybody, he’s still given up at least one home run in each start, with the one exception being his last one in Buffalo, against Miami.
With that said, I believe in Robbie Ray.
GRADE: A-
Hyun Jin Ryu
Stats: 10 games, 58 ⅓ innings, 2.62 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 25 K%, 3.4 BB%, .237 BA Against, .278 wOBA Against, 0.93 HR/9, 2.1 bWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 3.30 xERA, 3.07 xFIP, 24.4 Whiff%, .242 xBA Against, .289 xwOBA Against, .371 xwOBACON Against, 0.96 xHR/9
Ryu is a goddamn fucking artist when he’s on, holy shit.
Has cut down an already low walk rate even more, to the second-best rate of his career.
Has pretty much been the Jays’ best starting pitcher since David Price or Roy Halladay.
GRADE: A
Steven Matz
Stats: 11 games, 59 ⅔ innings, 4.22 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 25.2 K%, 5.9 BB%, .260 BA Against, .314 wOBA Against, 1.06 HR/9, 0.6 bWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 3.68 xERA, 3.42 xFIP, 24.5 Whiff%, .246 xBA Against, .304 xwOBA Against, .373 xwOBACON Against, 1.10 xHR/9
Steven Matz and Robbie Ray are currently duking it out for the title of “Best Dogshit 2020 Pitcher Turned Really Solid 2021 Pitcher)”
He’s still prone to the big inning, albeit not to the same extent as with the Mets. There’s been a few starts where he’ll be really good for five innings, but give up three or four runs in one inning.
Possibly explaining the “not to the same extent as with the Mets” part, the only real difference in Matz’s metrics have been a greater ability to avoid hard contact. Matz has allowed the least home runs of his career since 2016, and MUCH better than his 4.16 HR/9 in 2020.
GRADE: B
Ross Stripling
Stats: 8 games, 37 innings, 5.11 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 24.4 K%, 6.9 BB%, .270 BA Against, .360 wOBA Against, 1.95 HR/9, 0.3 bWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 4.90 xERA, 4.24 xFIP, 24.9 Whiff%, .258 xBA Against, .350 xwOBA Against, .437 xwOBACON Against, 1.80 xHR/9
Stripling was starting to induce Tanner Roark vibes over the first four starts of the year, getting knocked around to the tune of a 6.61 ERA. In their four most recent appearances, Stripling has posted a 3.92 ERA in his last four appearances.
The reason for the term appears to be mechanical changes owing to Stripling “seeing his career flash before his eyes”, which is one of the more humanizing ways I’ve ever seen a pitcher describe his own performance.
I have to grade on the totality of the season thus far, so the grade isn’t going to be particularly complimentary. With that said, if Stripling can keep it up, he’s not going to look that bad at all in the back end of the rotation. At least until the presumptive starting pitching help can be acquired.
GRADE: C-
Did not make the cut: Anthony Kay, T.J. Zeuch, Alek Manoah, Tanner Roark, Nate Pearson
OUTFIELDERS
Randal Grichuk
Stats: 217 plate appearances, .286/.318/.515, 19.4 K%, 4.1 BB%, .356 wOBA, 128 wRC+, 0.3 DEF, 1.3 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .267 xBA, .483 xSLG, .335 xwOBA, .399 xwOBACON, 44.2 HardHit%
Ah yes, the age-old question asked by Blue Jays fans for generations: “Is Randal Grichuk finally for real???”
Grichuk has posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career so far and is currently on pace for his best offensive season since 2015, and he’s on pace for his best-ever season in terms of fWAR.
He doesn’t really walk and he chases way too fucking much, but the other aspects of his game have improved enough over the last couple of seasons that you’ll take that.
His best position is still right field, but in the absence of George Springer, he’s mostly played center field, where he’s been perfectly serviceable and an improvement over last year.
GRADE: B+
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Stats: 194 plate appearances, .265/.280/.395, 21.1 K%, 2.1 BB%, .290 wOBA, 83 wRC+, -0.8 DEF, 0.2 fWAR,
Expected & Statcast Stats: .247 xBA, .380 xSLG, .282 xwOBA, .346 xwOBACON, 35.1 HardHit%
Gurriel is a streaky hitter, and that fact has been the most overexposed it’s ever been this year, as he’s only just now coming out of a slump he had been mired in since Day 1.
He’s one of those players whose swing looks terrific when he’s actually hitting the ball, but who just looks awful when he’s swinging at shit in the dirt.
Gurriel hasn’t been hitting the ball as hard as in previous years and has seemingly forgotten how to take a walk. Surprisingly enough, his strikeout rates (which to my surprise are actually better than the league average) have remained stable relative to last year’s.
If it wasn’t for his arm, and for the fact that first base is kind of crowded, his defence would basically have no redeeming qualities, and the Jays may be looking covetously at first base.
That said, he provides immense entertainment value for his antics on the bench alone, so I think a slight boost to the grade is in order.
GRADE: C
Teoscar Hernández
Stats: 162 plate appearances, .300/.352/.493, 25.3 K%, 7.4 BB%, .364 wOBA, 133 wRC+, -1.0 DEF, 1.2 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .287 xBA, .538 xSLG, .371 xwOBA, .478, xwOBACON, 48.6 HardHit%
174 games after being called up after a two-week stint in Triple-A, it’s safe to say that the Teoscar Hernández breakout is very real (.273/336/.544, 133 wRC+). And I couldn’t be happier.
I’ll stop talking about me, but I’m happy for the vindication after a couple years of him being my favourite Blue Jay while he was hacking away at pitches three feet out of the strike zone. I like power-speed guys who smile a lot, and I will never apologize for this.
Teo’s defence in right field has been perfectly fine (the arm helps), but he’s also seen some time in his old stomping grounds: Left field. While this sounds like a recipe for 2018 PTSD, but he’s been solid there, by all indications (for what it’s worth, the defensive metrics seem to like the 414 innings he’s played in left field in 2019 and 2021. Much more so than the eyesore that was his left field defence in 2018).
GRADE: A-
Did not make the cut: Jonathan Davis, Josh Palacios, George Springer
INFIELDERS
Marcus Semien
Stats: 242 plate appearances, .301/.372/.546, 25.2 K%, 10.3 BB%, .393 wOBA, 153 wRC+, 0.9 DEF, 2.8 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .241 xBA, .444 xSLG, .331 xwOBA, .403 xwOBACON, 44.2 HardHit%
Holy fuck, that May.
I was expecting somewhere between Semien’s elite 2019 season and his disappointing but solid 2020. I was certainly not expecting him to be the best second baseman in baseball, and I didn’t expect him to be on pace for his best season yet. Better even than 2019.
He’s had his share of BABIP-aided singles, and his Statcast numbers don’t really jump off the page, but the only drastic differences between his 2019 and 2021 analytics are a higher strikeout rate, suggesting that this might still be sustainable.
His defence at second base has also graded out well so far, and he’s filled in ably for Bo Bichette at short whenever Bo’s gotten the day off.
GRADE: A
Bo Bichette
Stats: 239 plate appearances, .262/.314/.475, 26.4 K%, 6.3 BB%, .340 wOBA, 117 wRC+, 0.1 DEF, 1.5 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .252 xBA, .467 xSLG, .331 xwOBA, .423 xwOBACON, 50.9 HardHit%
Bichette’s overall numbers seem fine. And, well, they are. While they’re slightly down from his career averages, he’s still having a good season, and he’s hitting the ball harder than ever before.
However, just by going off the ever-flawless eye test, Bo has yet to get in a really comfortable, sustained groove. He’s been streaky, but with more peaks and fewer valleys than Gurriel, for instance.
By far the biggest hole in Bo’s game right now is his willingness to swing at fucking everything. Buck and Pat rave about Bo’s two-strike approach even though he, like every big league hitter, is pretty bad with two strikes, especially when he’s down 0-2 (46 wRC+), a count he’s found himself stuck in 59 times. I’m no hitting coach, but it might behove him to use that great two-strike approach before he gets to two strikes.
Earlier in the year, Bo was making an excellent case for himself as the Jays’ second baseman of the future with his defence at shortstop. Since then, he’s righted the ship somewhat, though his throws can often be kind of shaky. DRS really likes him, for what that’s worth, grading him out at +4.
GRADE: B
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Stats: 232 plate appearances, .335/.440/.665, 14.7 K%, 14.1 BB%, .460 wOBA, 198 wRC+, -3.2 DEF, 3.5 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .317 xBA, .615 SLG, .435 xwOBA, .475 xwOBACON, 53.4 HardHit%
[Jays Twitter]
Me: [chanting] Vlad, Vlad-
Other online weirdos: Vlad, VLAD
Me again: [pounding my keyboard] VLAD, VLAD, VLAD!
GRADE: A+
Cavan Biggio
Stats: 151 plate appearances, .205/.315/.315, 31.1 K%, 13.2 BB%, .285 wOBA, 80 wRC+, -2.9 DEF, -0.3 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .194 xBA, .299 xSLG, .275 xwOBA, .332 xwOBACON, 29.3 HardHit%
Biggio went into the season with a more aggressive approach, and while it was a great idea in theory it hasn’t paid off thus far. He still walks a ton, but because Biggio hasn’t made good contact this season, his strikeout rate has gone from the middle of the pack to terrible.
He had been showing sporadic signs of improvement before getting hurt, and he’s too good of a hitter to stay down for the whole season, I would hope. A consistent approach would do wonders, as the halfway point between his patience from previous years and his scattershot aggressiveness early this season hasn’t done much for him.
His defence at third base has also been scrutinized due to a high amount of errors, with none of the metrics seeing him as better than below-average. He’s been okay in limited time in the outfield, but what we’ve seen seems to suggest that second base is still his best position by a fair margin.
GRADE: D+
Rowdy Tellez
Stats: 119 plate appearances, .220/.286/.349, 19.3 K%, 6.7 BB%, .278 wOBA, 75 wRC+, -2.5 DEF, -0.2 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .254 xBA, .451 xSLG, .328 xwOBA, .377 xwOBACON, 50 HardHit%
This is my monthly plea not to give up on Rowdy Tellez.
The results just haven’t been there for Rowdy, who has seen a brief demotion to Triple-A this season. But aside from bad chase and walk rates, the metrics suggest that he’s making fine contact and crushing the ball. As far as I can tell, he’s had a ton of bad luck.
With more playing time, Rowdy SHOULD start seeing better results. If he doesn’t though, he’s the leading candidate to see his playing time squeezed further when George Springer returns.
GRADE: C
Did not make the cut: Joe Panik, Santiago Espinal