Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays (31-29) vs. Boston Red Sox (38-25)
*Ignoring the previous series and looking ahead at the series against the Orioles that begins in one week and salivating*
For now, the Jays head into Boston (ugh) to face the Red Sox for a four-game wraparound series. Before getting into it, humour me as I plead for engagement. If you like what Jayslam is doing, please consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or an enemy! I’m happy with either, really.
Likewise, if you’ve been enjoying Jayslam, want to see more of it, or want to support its continued existence, consider getting a paid subscription! Paid ones get you access to exclusive posts such as my season previews (which are not looking so good), as well as to the comments section.
BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Bo Bichette (4) .417/.462/.500, 3 Weighted Runs Created, 0.05 WPA/LI
By my usual criteria, I would actually give it to Joe Panik again, because my brain is poisoned. Instead, I went with my gut and gave it to Bo on the back of his 2- and 3-hit efforts on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Honourable mention goes to Riley Adams, who may not have had the statistically best series, but still put together a solid first few games in the Majors, offensively and defensively, even stepping in as Hyun Jin Ryu’s catcher after Danny Jansen’s injury.
Honourable Mentions: Joe Panik, Riley Adams
Pitcher: Robbie Ray (6) 6 ⅓ innings, 25 batters faced, 5 hits, 1 earned run, 13 strikeouts, 0 walks, 1.10 FIP, 71 Game Score v2, 0.11 WPA/LI
Robbie Ray turned in the greatest start of his Blue Jays tenure, striking out over half of the batters he faced while walking only one. His only blemish was a solo home run to Andrew Vaughn which unfortunately was enough to cough up the Jays’ lead. Still, he gets the Best Bird, which I’m sure is all the consolation he needs.
Tyler Chatwood threw a terrific bounce-back inning, restoring some confidence that he might, in fact, remember how to throw strikes. Alek Manoah had a solid start against the strongest offense he’s faced yet, which can only be a good sign. Hyun Jin Ryu also had an overall solid start after a rough first inning, which was aided in large part by Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s misadventures in left field.
Honourable Mentions: Tyler Chatwood, Alek Manoah
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 6
Bo Bichette- 4
Marcus Semien- 3
Joe Panik- 2
Randal Grichuk- 2
Teoscar Hernández- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
George Springer- 1
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 6
Hyun Jin Ryu- 4
Steven Matz- 4
Julian Merryweather- 2
Ross Stripling- 1
Alek Manoah- 1
Anthony Castro- 1
Ryan Borucki- 1
Friday, June 11 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Ross Stripling vs. Garrett Richards
Stripling: Nine games (eight starts), 42 innings, 4.71 ERA/4.58 FIP/4.26 xFIP, 23.8 K%, 6.6 BB%, .261 xBA Against, 42.7 HardHit%
Richards: Twelve starts, 65 innings, 3.88 ERA/3.89 FIP/4.42 xFIP, 20.6 K%, 11.3 BB%, .268 xBA Against, 50.8 HardHit%
Saturday, June 12 (4 p.m. EST/2 p.m. MST): Steven Matz vs. Nick Pivetta
Matz: 12 starts, 64 innings, 4.50 ERA/3.96 FIP/3.69 xFIP, 24.1 K%, 6.8 BB%, .246 xBA Against, 41 HardHit%
Pivetta: 12 starts, 64 ⅓ innings, 3.78 ERA/3.40 FIP/4.34 xFIP, 27.3 K%, 11.4 BB%, .219 xBA Against, 36.6 HardHit%
Sunday, June 13 (1 p.m. EST/11 a.m. MST): Robbie Ray vs. Martín Pérez
Ray: 11 starts, 64 ⅓ innings, 3.36 ERA/4.38 FIP/3.03 xFIP, 31.2 K%, 5.7 BB%, .242 xBA Against, 49.1 HardHit%
Pérez: 12 starts, 60 ⅓ innings, 3.88 ERA/3.83 FIP/4.48 xFIP, 20.6 K%, 8.0 BB%, .267 xBA Against, 39.4 HardHit%
Monday, June 14 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Alek Manoah vs. Nathan Eovaldi
Manoah: Three starts, 14 ⅓ innings, 3.14 ERA/5.31 FIP/4.54 xFIP, 26.2 K%, 11.5 BB%, .216 xBA Against, 37.8 HardHit%
Eovaldi: 13 starts, 72 ⅓ innings, 4.11 ERA/2.62 FIP/3.60 xFIP, 22.7 K%, 5.5 BB%, .254 xBA Against, 35.8 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 36-27
Run differential: +47 (315 Runs Scored, 268 Runs Allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 3-2
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 11-7
Last 10 games: 6-4
Update the stats and you I could just copy-and-past my last write-up on these bastards. The Boston Red Sox might actually be good. Ugh.
While their offence isn’t Top 3 in the AL anymore, still behind the Astros and White Sox and having fallen behind the Blue Jays, Twins (???), and Athletics, it’s still a top 10 offence in baseball, buoyed by excellent seasons from Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and J.D. Martinez, with solid performances from Alex Verdugo and Christian Arroyo of all people to boot. Christian Vázquez hasn’t looked great (though his defence more than makes up for it) and neither has Kiké Hernández. Marwin González has been bad, and Bobby Dalbec has been an enormous disappointment thus far. Hunter Renfroe, though, has played well since last we saw him, bumping his wRC+ to 99. Just about average. Andrew Benintendi trade acquisition Franchy Cordero has been sent down in an act of addition by subtraction, though Danny Santana hasn’t done much better in his stead so far.
The Red Sox’s pitching has been solid in terms of both the starters and the relievers, surpassing expectations. Like I said back in May, knowing some of their histories and the quality of their opposition, the jury’s probably still out on if this excellent production from historically middling pitchers is smoke and mirrors or not, but it’s as good a sign as any, and it’s getting more and more believable by the day.
Best Players Thus Far:
Xander Bogaerts, Shortstop, .322/.382/.547, 151 wRC+
Rafael Devers, Third Base, .273/.340/.555, 137 wRC+
J.D. Martinez, Designated Hitter, .312/.377/.561, 152 wRC+
Matt Barnes, Relief Pitcher, 2.63 ERA/1.69 xFIP, 47.5 K%, 7.1 BB%
Nathan Eovaldi, Starting Pitcher, 4.11 ERA/3.60 xFIP, 22.7 K%, 5.5 BB%
Key Under-Performers:
Marwin González, Super Utility, .195/.279/.302, 62 wRC+
Bobby Dalbec, First Base, .192/.242/.365, 63 wRC+
Matt Andriese, Relief Pitcher, 6.92 ERA/6.42 xFIP, 21.4 K%, 6.9 BB%