Series Preview: Boston Red Sox (25-17) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (22-17)
The Jays have gone 9-2 against the National League East this season. Granted, that division has been notorious this season for having stupid bullshit affect it, and Sunday’s 10-8 clusterfuck of a victory over the Phillies was certainly no exception. But baseball seasons are already an exercise in the act of “taking what you can get”, so screw it.
With the Boston Red Sox coming to town Tuesday evening, along with, probably, a legion of obnoxious North Floridian visiting fans, as has been tradition so far this year. I never thought I’d say this, but the move to Buffalo can’t come soon enough. And it will soon, thank Christ! This series and the subsequent one against the Rays will mark the last home series in Dunedin.
Nothing necessarily against TD Ballpark or Dunedin; it’s been nice being the most successful team in Florida. But if you’re a Jays fan or player, you can’t tell me it doesn’t get very, very annoying to have some braying Atlanta fan, for instance, screaming that idiotic chant during a big moment in the eighth inning.
The Jays are looking to close the gap between themselves and the division leaders, who remain annoyingly good in the first quarter of this young season. Before we chat about the upcoming series against Boston, humour me as I plead for engagement. If you like that JAYSLAM is here, providing fresh Jay-related #content multiple times a week, consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or one who’s not! Whatever!
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BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4), 13 plate appearances, .455/.538/1.364, 6 Weighted Runs Created, 0.62 WPA/LI
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. may be waking up, while Marcus Semien and Bo Bichette put together great series. Hard to argue with three dingers in three games, though. Especially when the last one is still flying through Mexican airspace.
Honourable Mentions: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Marcus Semien
Pitcher: Steven Matz (4), 5 innings, 22 batters faced, 4 hits, 0 earned runs, 9 strikeouts, 3 walks, 1.33 FIP, 64 Game Score v2, 0.19 WPA/LI
Boy those camo hats are fucking hideous. It’s hilarious to me that such a military-obsessed culture honours soldiers by trotting out the biggest eyesores possible every other month.
Tyler Chatwood and recently called-up A.J. Cole looked good out of the bullpen, but that weekend was all about the starters this weekend, baby. Anthony Kay threw four scoreless innings, making his best case yet for staking a claim on a rotation spot going forward. Robbie Ray looked great for most of his start (walking his first hitter in four starts), but he threw a lot of pitches in the first inning and faded as the game went on, getting hit hard as he did so.
While the Jays didn’t end up winning on Friday, I still went with that game’s starter, Steven Matz, who carved up the Phillies over five scoreless innings, striking out nine of them (his highest total since his first start against Texas). With that, Matz takes the lead in the Best Bird standings, ahead of both Robbie Ray in second place and Hyun Jin Ryu in third. What does this mean? Absolutely nothing, but if I had thought of this made-up award before the season, and if someone would have told me that the leaders would be Matz and Ray, and not Ryu, I would have had a lot of questions.
Honourable Mentions: Anthony Kay, Robbie Ray
Best Bird Standings
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 4
Marcus Semien- 2
Bo Bichette- 2
Randal Grichuk- 2
Teoscar Hernández- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
George Springer- 1
Pitchers:
Steven Matz- 4
Robbie Ray- 3
Hyun Jin Ryu- 2
Julian Merryweather- 2
Anthony Castro- 1
Ryan Borucki- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Tuesday, May 18 (7:30 p.m. EST/5:30 p.m. EST): Eduardo Rodríguez vs. Hyun Jin Ryu
Rodríguez: Seven starts, 39 innings, 4.15 ERA/3.31 xERA/3.28 xFIP, 26.4 K%, 4.4 BB%, .235 xBA Against, 33.6 HardHit%
Ryu: Seven starts, 39 ⅔ innings, 2.95 ERA/3.20 xERA/3.20 xFIP, 23.9 K%, 3.1 BB%, .248 xBA Against, 31.9 HardHit%
Wednesday, May 19 (7:30 p.m. EST/5:30 p.m. EST): Garrett Richards vs. Ross Stripling
Richards: Eight starts, 41 ⅔ innings, 3.89 ERA/4.23 xERA/4.24 xFIP, 21 K%, 9.9 BB%, .260 xBA Against, 48.4 HardHit%
Stripling: Five starts, 21 ⅓ innings, 5.91 ERA/4.71 xERA/4.16 xFIP, 26.3 K%, 8.1 BB%, .255 xBA Against, 41.5 HardHit%
Thursday, May 20 (7:30 p.m. EST/5:30 p.m. EST): Nick Pivetta vs. Steven Matz
Pivetta: Eight starts, 42 ⅔ innings, 3.16 ERA/3.97 xERA/4.51 xFIP, 24.4 K%, 12.8 BB%, .234 xBA Against, 40.2 HardHit%
Matz: Eight starts, 42 innings, 4.29 ERA/3.86 xERA/3.56 xFIP, 25.6 K%, 7.2 BB%, .247 xBA Against, 39.8 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean record: 25-17
Run differential: +45, (217 Runs, 172 Runs Allowed)
Season series vs Blue Jays: 1-1
Record since the last series vs. the Blue Jays: 13-10
Last 10 games: 6-4
Still sitting atop the AL East just shy of the quarter pole with a tougher schedule than they’ve faced this year coming up, the Boston Red Sox are getting to the point where they need to prove they’re for real. They’ve done everything right so far, but you can only put so much stock in a season where most of their games have come against shitty teams.
Since they last played the Blue Jays, the Red Sox have been solid, if a bit streaky. In terms of wRC+, Boston has the third-best offence in the game, behind only the Chicago White Sox and the Houston Astros. Rafael Devers (152 wRC+) would be the best hitter on most teams, but he has to settle for third-best behind the rebounding J.D. Martinez (179 wRC+) and the always-excellent Xander Bogaerts (177 wRC+). Both Martinez and Bogaerts are putting together MVP-caliber seasons in the early goings, with the third- and fourth-best wRC+ in baseball, respectively, behind only Mike Trout and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Alex Verdugo (115 wRC+) has also been very good, and super-utility man Kiké Hernández (98 wRC+) has been fine if not spectacular. Christian Vázquez has slumped with the bat (2019-20: 105 wRC+/2021: 81 wRC+), but his defence is excellent enough to make him a valuable catcher regardless.
Beyond those guys though, Red Sox position players have been surprisingly kind of dogshit. Newcomers Hunter Renfroe (74 wRC+), Marwin González (78 wRC+), and Franchy Cordero (24 wRC+) have all been downright horrible at the plate, while Bobby Dalbec (my pick for AL Rookie of the Year, reminding me to never, ever be nice to Boston) has been especially disappointing (78 wRC+). Boston has a terrific offence even with these guys contributing less than nothing, which I guess you could either read as their lineup being top-heavy or as Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers and Verdugo just being that good.
Lest we have an Angels-type situation, Red Sox starting pitching has been solid, with the quintet of Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodríguez, Garrett Richards, Nick Pivetta, and Martín Pérez putting together good seasons. Knowing some of their histories and the quality of their opposition, the jury’s probably still out on if this is smoke and mirrors, but it’s as good a sign as any.
Relief pitcher Matt Barnes has been, for my money, their best pitcher, and one of the best relievers in the game. Rule 5 pick Garrett Whitlock has continued to be great, while Adam Ottavino, Josh Taylor, Phillips Valdez, and Hirokazu Sawamura have been solid with various qualities of peripherals, overcoming poor starts to the season for Matt Andriese, Austin Brice, and Darwinzon Hernández en route to a Top 5 bullpen in MLB.
Best Players Thus Far:
Xander Bogaerts, Shortstop, .344/.404/.609, 178 wRC+
J.D. Martinez, Designated Hitter/Outfielder, .342/.420/.605, 180 wRC+
Matt Barnes, Relief Pitcher, 2.66 ERA/1.10 xERA, 49.3 K%, 4.2 BB%
Rafael Devers, Third Base, .278/.354/.583, 153 wRC+
Nick Pivetta, Starting Pitcher, 3.16 ERA/3.97 xERA, 24.4 K%, 12.8 BB%
Key Under-Performers:
Bobby Dalbec, First Base, .211/.262/.395, 79 wRC+
Franchy Cordero, Left Field, .167/.222/.226, 24 wRC+
Christian Vázquez, Catcher, .258/.304/.352, 82 wRC+