Same As It Ever Was (Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles (40-89) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (68-61))
This month of August is proving to be a study in the different ways that the Toronto Blue Jays can play the exact same game. After the brief offensive anomaly on Thursday when the Jays scored seven off the Chicago White Sox, Toronto only managed six runs total in three games against the Detroit Tigers. That’s one less than they had scored in their previous series against the Tigers at the Rogers Centre. This time, they actually won two of three instead of dropping two of three! With an even more lethargic offence! Baseball is so, so stupid!
Before this last Tigers series, the last series the Jays won was way back earlier this month, during that magical four-game home set against the Boston Red Sox. The last time the Jays won consecutive ballgames was during that same series, amidst a five-game win streak against both the Red Sox and the Cleveland Guardians. Since that Boston series, the Jays’ playoff chances have grown increasingly remote.
Being 5.5 games out of a playoff spot at the end of August isn’t necessarily a death sentence, but it’s certainly sub-optimal. As we’ve mentioned before in this very publication, with so many teams ahead of them, and none of them in an apparent free fall that I’ve noticed, the Jays are getting closer and closer to the point where not winning a series drags them closer to meaningless September baseball. And with the feebly triumphant series against their erstwhile Great Lakes rivals now behind them getting back in the habit of winning some more damn series just got a little bit easier, with the Baltimore Orioles coming to Toronto.
And as bad as I said the Washington Nationals were earlier in the month (before they promptly broke the Jays over their knee, Bane style), the Orioles have the worst win-loss record in baseball, and they’re even more terrible than when the Jays last faced them after fully throwing in the towel. Yes, even worse than the Arizona Diamondbacks. In fact, Baltimore is recently coming off a 19-game losing streak, two longer than the Diamondbacks’ 17-game streak earlier this season. Seeing as how we’re getting into September, I daresay the Jays NEED to at least win this series. Please Blue Jays, this series translates into an extended bout of batting practice. I am on my knees begging you all to beat Keegan Akin and Matt Harvey into the ground.
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TRANSACTION NEWS
I honestly completely forgot Carl Edwards Jr. was on the team. Nor do I know when we started calling him C.J. Edwards. Anyways, this makes sense. The Jays have a lot more reliever depth at this point (regardless of what one thinks of some of these options), they’re only really doing Edwards a disservice by holding onto him past the September postseason roster deadline without giving him a shot at catching on with another team.
In injury news, Jarrod Dyson replaced Santiago Espinal on the active roster after Espinal went down with a hip injury on Saturday (kill me). Kevin Smith looks likely to take the bulk of the innings at third base for the foreseeable future, with Espinal and Cavan Biggio out for a while, by the looks of it. The glove will be missed, but seeing what Smith can bring to the table isn’t a bad thing, to be sure.
Per the r/FOMoves subreddit (which we’re just going to assume is trustworthy), both Anthony Kay and speedy outfielder Mallex Smith have been placed on the Buffalo Bisons’ IL. This all but eliminates their chances of being one of the Jays’ two September call-ups, which isn’t to say either of them getting called up was especially likely in the first place. Those spots seem destined to go to George Springer and Danny Jansen, assuming they’re ready for September 1.
BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Bo Bichette (7) 14 plate appearances, .462/.500/.769, 10 total bases, 4 Weighted Runs Created, 0.18 Win Probability Added, 0.25 WPA/LI
For as much trouble as the Jays had scoring runs, they did get some pretty good individual performances from the likes of Bo, Corey Dickerson, Alejandro Kirk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and, thankfully, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Also having a memorable series was Kevin Smith, who got on base a bit and blasted his first big league home run.
Honourable Mentions: Corey Dickerson, Kevin Smith
Pitcher: José Berríos (2) 7 innings, 28 batters faced, 6 hits, 0 earned runs, 11 strikeouts, 0 walks, 0.02 FIP, 0.37 Win Probability Added, 0.24 WPA/LI
José Berríos got things back on track after a few subpar-at-best starts, silencing some of the more annoying segments of the fandom from screeching, full-throated, about the Jays’ decision to add at the deadline at the cost of Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. And telling the worst sections of the fanbase to fuck off is never a bad idea. Never ever1.
Big ups to Steven Matz and Alek Manoah, who both looked excellent. Same to Jordan Romano, who shut the Tigers down in two crucial innings of relief on Saturday.
Honourable Mentions: Alek Manoah, Steven Matz
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 11
Bo Bichette- 7
George Springer- 7 (10-day IL)
Marcus Semien- 6
Teoscar Hernández- 3
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- 2
Joe Panik- 2 (now on the Miami Marlins)
Randal Grichuk- 2
Santiago Espinal- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1 (10-day IL)
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 12
Hyun Jin Ryu- 8
Alek Manoah- 6
Ross Stripling- 4 (10-day IL)
Steven Matz- 4
José Berríos- 2
Julian Merryweather- 2 (60-day IL)
Trevor Richards- 1
Anthony Kay- 1 (Triple-A)
Anthony Castro- 1 (10-day IL)
Ryan Borucki- 1 (Triple-A)
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Monday, August 30 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Chris Ellis vs. Robbie Ray
Tuesday, August 31 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Keegan Akin vs. Hyun Jin Ryu
Wednesday, September 1 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Matt Harvey vs. Steven Matz
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 44-85
Run differential: -231 (531 runs scored, 762 runs allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 3-6
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 12-31
Last 10 games: 2-8
Oh lordy, are the Orioles bad. Good God.
As well as taking the easy out and shortening this section this time around, because there just isn’t much to talk about besides “oh my god, what the fuck, how is Matt Harvey your second-best starter, how is Keegan Akin your Number 3, Jesus Christ, my eyes are burning”, I’m foregoing the usual “under-performers” section. Because at this point, I don’t think anybody is playing badly on the Orioles that you could reasonably point to and say “yeah, that dude’s not playing up to the standard expected of him”.
The Orioles have jettisoned the likes of Maikel Franco and committed playing time to the likes of Ramón Urías (whose results have been surprisingly very good), Jorge Mateo, Kelvin Gutiérrez, and second base prospect Jahmai Jones. Cedric Mullins is a superstar, and Ryan Mountcastle and Trey Mancini have been plus hitters (while also being defensive voids), but the other contributors have all been league average at the absolute best.
As for the rotation, John Means has been the rock atop the rotation, and even Harvey has been largely fine since his last start against the Jays (3.53 ERA in eight starts), while Keegan Akin is still kicking around, despite an ERA that begins with a 7. Jorge López has been relegated to the bullpen and Dean Kremer is off in Norfolk. With Bruce Zimmermann on the 60-Day IL, the O’s have divvied up starts to the likes of Spenser Watkins, Thomas Eshelman, and Alexander Wells.
The bullpen has subtracted César Valdez (cowards) and has had Paul Fry fall off a cliff, but Tyler Wells, Cole Sulser, Tanner Scott, and Dillon Tate are still solid, though not terrific, in the bullpen. Easy to be pretty good when every game is low leverage by the fifth inning, I guess.
But hey, Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodríguez look sick. Gotta have something.
Best Players:
Cedric Mullins, Center Field, .307/.369/.532, 145 wRC+
John Means, Starting Pitcher, 3.46 ERA/4.37 xFIP, 22.9 K%, 4.2 BB%
Ramón Urías, Utility Infield, .277/.359/.427, 120 wRC+
Ryan Mountcastle, First Base, .266/.312/.495, 116 wRC+
Austin Hays, Outfield, .247/.295/.431, 97 wRC+
Now to take a big drink of coffee and check up on how my Mets fans are doing-