Everybody Exhale (Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays (35-35) vs. Miami Marlins (31-40))
It feels strange to say this, but what a crucial mid-June 2-1 series win over the 2021 Baltimore Orioles.
I think part of the urgency comes from the fact that on top of the four-game skid the Jays had been on entering the series, the first game hit the absolute zenith for demoralization. Robbie Ray looked good, despite a leadoff home run to Cedric Mullins, but the shitty Orioles kept working high pitch counts, fouling off a ridiculous amount of pitches, knocking Ray out in the fifth inning. As for the offence, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. lofted a game-tying solo home run in the top of the fifth, but the Jays were unable to figure out Tom Eshelman until the same inning, at which point the Orioles’ relief corps of Tyler Wells, Tanner Scott, Hunter Harvey, and Paul Fry dominated a limp Jays lineup.
Trent Thornton held the fort for a bit after Ray got knocked out, but the Orioles blew the doors down against Patrick Murphy and Jeremy Beasley to win 7-1. It was gutting. Not even a week ago, we were talking about the Jays as a team that would be in the thick of the playoff hunt. Now, the last two games had shown a team seemingly incapable of doing anything but rolling over two-seam fastballs from the likes of Michael King and Tom Goddamn Eshelman.
Any two-game stretch is not enough to judge a team’s offensive production off of, no matter which six-game losing streak or which month during which it takes place. But it sure as fuck didn’t feel good to watch. The next two games felt like a must-win if only to bust out of a tailspin and prove that this team could build some modicum of positive momentum. And you know what? They did!
Game 2 looked similarly shitty to Game 2, with the Jays losing 6-2 going into the seventh, as both Alek Manoah and long reliever Anthony Kay got knocked around, with Manoah’s command issues irking the Orioles bench and getting him ejected after a hit-by-pitch to Maikel Franco, which seems, uh, premature at best on the umpire’s part.
Update: What in the Absolute Goddamn Fuck.
The Jays scratched a run apiece off of Tanner Scott and Hunter Harvey before turning Paul Fry and Tyler Wells into piñatas to strike for six in the ninth. Final score: Blue Jays 10 - Orioles 7.
Trey Mancini hit a first-inning solo shot, but that would be the only blemish on the night of Hyun Jin Ryu, as he twirled seven innings of one-run ball. It was a nice bounceback for Ryu, who had been scuffling in his last few starts.
I’m also pretty sure this was Ryu’s first start with the Jays in the dark blue alternates. This is key to it all, bet all the money on it1. Do it, coward2.
Besides the first inning, the lineups’ inability to put together any meaningful offensive threat against Matt Harvey gave me Tom Eshelman flashbacks, but they managed to draw blood in the fifth, stringing together four runs to take a 4-1 lead. In the eighth, the Jays struck for a couple more runs off of César Valdez, but a couple of home runs from Pedro Severino and Trey Mancini drew the score close at 6-4. Reese McGuire, who had been spraying hits all day, smacked a ground ball single to drive in Grichuk for a much-needed insurance run, and that’s where the score would stand.
Tyler Chatwood surrendering an unsightly four-pitch leadoff walk to Anthony Santander, but nothing else as the Jays won the game 7-4, and won their first series since the beginning of the month, the two-game sweep against Miami. I’m hoping that bodes well for this coming set.
With George Springer set to finally return from the IL, hopefully for good, and with at least some modicum of bullpen help on the way in the form of Mets cast-off Jacob Barnes and Team Canada closer and Sportsnet analyst John Axford (presumably to a minor league deal), there is still reason to be optimistic in this Toronto Blue Jays team. It just might be a battle for a lot of the time until the Jays can acquire, oh I dunno, let’s say, Richard Rodríguez, Kendall Graveman, and Ian Kennedy? That would do just fine, I think.
First things first though, as the Jays head back to the accursed state of Florida, for the first time since moving to Buffalo, for a two-game road series against the Miami Marlins. Before getting into that, humour me as I plead for engagement. If you like what Jayslam is doing, please consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or an enemy! I’m happy with either, really.
Likewise, if you’ve been enjoying Jayslam, want to see more of it, or want to support its continued existence, consider getting a paid subscription! Paid ones get you access to exclusive posts such as my season previews (which are not looking so good), as well as to the comments section.
BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (1) 10 plate appearances, .400/.400/.900, 1 home run, 9 total bases, 3 Weighted Runs Created, 0.13 WPA/LI
Reese McGuire made an excellent case for himself with a four-hit effort on Sunday. In fact, a lot of Jays looked good, with Vladdy continuing to Vlad, Marcus Semien yanking a few home runs, and Teoscar Hernández showing some dad strength with a terrific game on Sunday in his first game coming back from the paternity list. In the end, I went with Gurriel, who gets on the board with an excellent showing, performing steadily in all three games and entertaining off the field with… Whatever the hell he was doing in the dugout. It was entertaining, whatever it was.
Honourable Mentions: Reese McGuire, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Pitcher: Hyun Jin Ryu (5) 7 innings, 24 batters faced, 3 hits, 1 earned run, 4 strikeouts, 1 walk, 4.31 FIP, 69 Same Score v2, 0.26. WPA/LI
Ryu rebounded from a string of subpar starts with a one-run effort against Baltimore, the ultimate cure for any pitching slump. Robbie Ray looked good, but the Orioles’ tenacity (and the resulting high pitch count) doomed him to come out in the fifth. Jordan Romano pitched an excellent couple innings of shutout relief on Saturday, while Trent Thornton’s terrific long relief on Friday nearly got him an honourable mention, despite getting blown up a bit on Sunday.
Honourable Mentions: Robbie Ray, Jordan Romano
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 7
Marcus Semien- 4
Bo Bichette- 4
Joe Panik- 2
Randal Grichuk- 2
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
Teoscar Hernández- 1
George Springer- 1
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 6
Hyun Jin Ryu- 5
Steven Matz- 4
Ross Stripling- 2
Alek Manoah- 2
Julian Merryweather- 2
Anthony Castro- 1
Ryan Borucki- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Tuesday, June 22 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Ross Stripling vs. Sandy Alcántara
Stripling: 11 games (10 starts), 54 ⅓ innings, 4.64 ERA/4.42 FIP/4.20 xFIP, 25.0 K%, 6.9 BB%, .249 xBA Against, 42.9 HardHit%
Alcántara: 15 starts, 93 ⅓ innings, 3.09 ERA/3.35 FIP/3.65 xFIP, 23.3 K%, 6.7 BB%, .215 xBA Against, 36.8 HardHit%
Wednesday, June 23 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): TBA vs. Trevor Rogers
TBA:
Rogers: 14 starts, 81 ⅔ innings, 1.87 ERA/2.51 FIP/3.40 xFIP, 29.7 K%, 8.1 BB%, .205 xBA Against, 37.2 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 38-33
Run differential: +18 (281 Runs Scored, 263 Runs Allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 0-2
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 7-10
Last 10 games: 5-5
It’s a little hard to reconcile the fact that the Marlins are mired at the bottom of the NL East, three games behind fourth place. The Pythagorean record says it all: This is a team that’s playing well enough to compete with the New York Mets for the division lead (albeit a division that has been an utter shitshow) and is instead behind not only the Mets, but the Phillies, Atlanta, and Nationals as well. Not optimal! And kind of confusing!
The Marlins offence hasn’t been great, per se, leaning on an excellent season from Starling Marté and some solid production from the likes of Jazz Chisholm, Miguel Rojas, and Jesús Aguilar, who give the added benefit of making this Marlins team one of the most exciting in baseball. Even Jorge Alfaro, a catcher much more well-regarded for his defence, has been a slightly above-average hitter, a big improvement by his standards.
After that core though, the Marlins mostly employ middling platoon options in Adam Duvall and the injured pair of Corey Dickerson and Garrett Cooper. Brian Anderson has been underwhelming when healthy (and he hasn’t been that healthy), and while Jon Berti has hit better since last we checked, a motley crew of Magneuris Sierra, outfield prospect Jesús Sánchez, the injured José Devers, and the demoted pair of Isan Díaz and Lewis Brinson haven’t done much of anything.
The big strength of this Marlins team is the starting rotation, with the three-headed dragon of Trevor Rogers, Sandy Alcántara, and Pablo López proving formidable, with the left-handed rookie Rogers pitching the best of them all. Fellow rookie Cody Poteet has been solid if not spectacular behind them, and recent call-up Zach Thompson has pitched well in a handful of starts. And this is all with both Elieser Hernández and Sixto Sánchez hurt!
The Marlins bullpen has led the Majors in FIP, despite Old Friend Anthony Bass disappointing. Richard Bleier, Yimi García, Dylan Floro, Ross Detwiler, John Curtiss, and Anthony Bender have all been solid-to-great, while Adam Cimber has gotten some good luck, and Canadian Legend Zach Pop getting burned by some bad fortune, getting saddled with a 6.00 ERA despite a 4.21 FIP and 3.90 xFIP.
The Jays shouldn’t look at the Marlins’ record and think they’ll be a pushover because they really won’t be. Toronto will have to do their damndest to get to Rogers, Alcántara, and the bullpen while limiting the damage from their middling but sometimes dangerous offence. Seems like a pretty good series for Springer to crush the 20 home runs he would’ve hit had he played the full season, in my honest opinion.
Best Players Thus Far:
Trevor Rogers, Starting Pitcher, 1.87 ERA/3.41 xFIP, 29.7 K%, 8.1 BB%
Pablo López, Starting Pitcher, 2.86 ERA/3.50 xFIP, 25.0 K%, 6.2 BB%
Sandy Alcántara, Starting Pitcher, 3.09 ERA/3.65 xFIP, 23.3 K%, 6.7 BB%
Starling Marté, Center Field, .318/.422/.504, 161 wRC+
Miguel Rojas, Shortstop, .259/.335/.411, 113 wRC+
Key Under-Performers:
Anthony Bass, Relief Pitcher, 4.56 ERA/4.83 xFIP, 20.4 K%, 9.3 BB%
Jon Berti, Super Utility, .222/.327/.335, 93 wRC+
Magneuris Sierra, Outfield, .237/.308/.268, 60 wRC+
Stefan Salegio is not a licensed financial advisor.
Really, don’t listen to anything he says.