BREAKING: The Toronto Blue Jays
Hurt, by Johnny Cash, by Nine Inch Nails, by JAYSLAM
The ideal game plan for the coming week was to do a few posts building on the optimism for the coming season. I was hoping that this post could be fairly light and that I could bask in the glow of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk being awesome, and maybe chat about MLB Prospect Pipeline’s Top 30 Jays Prospects list, which I still might do at some point. Then I guess someone in the clubhouse pissed off a vengeful Greek god, because all of a sudden, several key Blue Jays players went down with an injury, once again reminding me that hope is an illusion designed to hurt me specifically, and it must be strangled and repressed at all costs.
Injuries are bound to happen at Spring Training, and the Jays are far from the only team to have key players get hurt to start the year. I think what makes this so painful for Jays fans is the tonal whiplash. We’re right off the heels of one of the most feel-good offseasons in Blue Jays history, and now two of the three biggest signings of the offseason are hurt, with one of them suffering a pretty devastating blow. Even if most of these injuries end up being minor (please god, I’m begging you), it’s a far cry from the good vibes that have persisted through most of spring training.
With that said, let’s not be doomers about it, because in all but one of these cases, we don’t have any proof that these injuries are serious. As much as we possibly can, let’s try to stay relatively levelheaded. We’ll take a look at each of the injuries currently afflicting the team, as well as what they mean for the players and the team.
Before that though! Because I didn’t end up doing a news dump, I need to plug stuff!
In Case You Missed it
We finished up the spring training preview with the starting pitchers, who were divided into two posts. Part 1 talks about starting rotation locks (hopefully it ages well) while Part 2 talks about players likely to start in the minor leagues. Also! I released a post talking about the rule changes coming to minor league baseball.
“But Stefan,” you’re probably saying. “You handsome genius,” you’re also probably saying. “I didn’t get that post emailed to me!” That means you don’t have a paid subscription to Jayslam! While free subscriptions are highly appreciated, paid subscriptions get you access to exclusive posts such as the post on rule changes, as well as the comments section.
Now that we’ve got the preamble out of the way, we can be on our way. I’ll provide the musical accompaniment.
KIRBY (YATES): NIGHTMARE IN DREAM LAND
By far the most devastating injury was inflicted upon the now-former presumptive Blue Jays closer, Kirby Yates. On Monday afternoon, the Jays announced that Yates would miss “multiple weeks” after being diagnosed with a right flexor strain. This was a bit of a downer in and of itself, but not even a full day later, Ross Atkins announced that he likely needs his second Tommy John Surgery (he had previously missed his 2006 and 2007 college seasons). This would rule him out for the duration of his one year, $5.5 million deal with the Jays, and he’s likely not going to appear in an MLB game for any team until midway through the 2022 season at the earliest.
This is absolutely devastating for Yates, and it’s hard not to feel bad for him. 2020 was already a lost season for him in which he only managed 4 ⅓ terrible innings before being shut down with an injury. He had hoped to re-establish himself as one of the best relievers in MLB, but now I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that he might struggle to have an MLB career. Yates will be an injury-prone 35-year-old reliever whose last good season was in 2019. Don’t get me wrong, he was elite that year, but healthy relievers are volatile enough. To come back two years after barely playing and still be an elite reliever might be too much to ask. He may have to settle for a minor league deal whenever he does come back. At least he’s getting paid this year?
As for how this affects the Blue Jays, it’s probably less than you’d think. They sure would’ve liked Yates to be an elite arm out of the pen, but the Jays realized that this was a high-risk, high-reward partnership, as Ken Rosenthal’s article for The Athletic reports. Yates’ physicals had raised red flags that had lowered his price tag by a few million dollars.
On that note, the Jays didn’t spend a whole lot of money on him when you compare him to the Brad Hand (one year, $10.5 million) and Liam Hendriks (three years, $54 million (!!!)) deals. They’re also blessed with a bullpen that doesn’t look that bad, depth-wise.
Replace Anthony Kay with A.J. Cole, and I’m pretty sure this will be the opening day bullpen, as things stand. A back three of Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, and Tyler Chatwood (who has looked great in spring training, for what it’s worth) are still probably going to win you a fair bit of ball games, as this article from FanGraphs also concludes.
So it’s certainly awful news for Kirby Yates, and it’s not optimal for the Jays. But in terms of the team, I think they’ll be fine. And who knows, if they liked him enough to sign him this off-season, they might give Yates a shot after he recovers, albeit probably for even less money.
NATE PEARSON
To quote me in the previous edition of The Scold:
“As of right now, we don’t have an exact timeline as to when we might expect Pearson back. My (extremely non-informed) understanding is that it’s possible to play through a Grade 1 groin strain, but probably not worth risking further injury. So all signs would seem to point to Pearson coming back relatively soon.
However, seeing that Pearson still has to ramp up from spring training, any interruption to his schedule would likely put him behind schedule for opening day. The Jays especially want to play it safe with Pearson, who has pitched a grand total of 112⅓ innings throughout the last three seasons in the majors and minors. There was likely to be some sort of limitation placed on Pearson due to his injury history anyways, so this may be more so a matter of that playing time being limited earlier in the season rather than later. I’m inclined to believe that the later in the season Pearson can stay in the rotation the better, so let‘s just fixate on the silver lining for now.”
Quoting myself will always feel a bit egomaniacal, but at least I didn’t quote the park where I made a truly ghoulish comparison to Aaron Sanchez.
Not a ton has changed with regards to Pearson’s situation since last I wrote this. He had a setback, but all that’s really done is confirm that he won’t be ready for opening day, which shouldn’t come as a surprise anyways. He’s throwing a bullpen session soon, and the Jays hope he’ll be back in the rotation at some point in April.
ROBBIE RAY
I definitely feel that this was the most bullshit of all these injuries. Especially after the Yates and Springer injuries, reading that Ray bruised his elbow by slipping and falling on some stairs while carrying his kid (thankfully it sounds like the child is fine, by all accounts) makes one come to the conclusion that someone out there is actively trying to overwhelm Jays fans with psychic damage.
It’s a flukey injury, and thankfully, it doesn’t seem to be serious. Right now, Ray, who’s looked great in spring training, is slated to miss his next spring start, but the Jays expect him to be ready for the opening series in New York. I am on my knees, begging whatever deity will listen to spare my boy Robbie’s elbow, because he looked due for a serious comeback.
This is what the Jays’ rotation looks like with Pearson out and Ray still in, according to Fangraphs’ Roster Resource page.
If Ray is healthy, this is hard to argue with. On the other hand, if Ray misses time (god forbid), that opens up a spot start for the likes of Trent Thornton, Tommy Milone, Anthony Kay, or T.J. Zeuch. Steven Matz would probably become the Number 2 behind Ryu (not that the order of the rotation necessarily means anything), with Tanner Roark, Ross Stripling and one of the assorted starters above slotting in behind them in some order.
There’s always the possibility that the Jays just get out there and trade for a pitcher (and I say trade because the free agent options out there aren’t much of an improvement on Thornton, Milone, Kay, or Hatch), but at this point, I’ll believe it when I see it.
THOMAS HATCH
My least favourite thing in baseball is watching pitchers mess up their elbows while pitching and having to trudge off the mound towards a potentially uncertain future. Seeing the Ramón Ortiz injury live has scarred me in that respect.
So it really sucked to see Thomas Hatch go through something similar during his March 17 appearance.
Thankfully, it sounds like there’s no damage to Hatch’s UCL, and the Jays hope that he won’t have to miss significant time. He’s out with “right elbow inflammation” right now, which is still always a worrisome condition, but hopefully he’s not kept out of action for very long. As Hatch was unlikely to break camp with the Jays in the first place, they can take their time to get him back to one hundred per cent.
GEORGE SPRINGER, TAKE MY OBLIQUE
Ugh. I’ll just let Ben explain.
This is just about the last thing anybody wanted to hear a week before opening day. Granted, the Jays don’t seem to expect him to be out for very long, and he may even be back for the beginning of the regular season. This is a much sunnier picture than the one painted by this article from Harvard Medical School, which says that recovery from a Grade 2 strain could take 8 to 10 weeks. The Blue Jays being out their star player for an extended period would be bad. Potentially missing out on him for around two months would be unfathomably shitty. I’m going to default to the Jays’ prognosis here though, if only because the Jays’ medical staff are probably the people most qualified to assess what Springer’s situation is. And apparently he’s already able to play baseball through it! We shall see and hope for the best.
As to how much a Springer absence affects the Jays’ lineup, it’s obviously by a fair margin. No lineup in baseball wouldn’t be hurt by removing a Springer-caliber player from it. However, with regards to the Jays, taking George Springer out of a lineup that would then include some combination of Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Cavan Biggio, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernández, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Randal Grichuk, Rowdy Tellez, Danny Jansen, and Alejandro Kirk still leaves a pretty fucking good lineup. Obviously, there would be value lost both offensively and defensively by having George Springer replaced as your everyday centerfielder by probably Randal Grichuk, but I think it’s safe to assume that the Jays would hold their own.
As for taking Springer’s spot on the 26-man, I would assume that Jonathan Davis would slide into a backup outfielder role. Josh Palacios has also put together a solid spring training campaign though, so it might also be an in for him. For as much as I’m a Davis fan though, I would really, really really like George Springer to be ready for the start of the season with no negative repercussions, please and thank you. If he needs an oblique transplant or whatever, sign me up, I’m ready.
Loved this. Poor Jays :(