2021 Toronto Blue Jays Spring Training Preview (Part 5A: Locks in the Starting Rotation)
Note: Because of the sheer amount of starting pitchers in camp, I’ve decided to split the starting pitching section of the preview into two parts, with part 5B coming out Monday.
Part 1: The Bullpen
Part 2: The Outfield
Part 3: The Infield
Part 4: Catchers
Starting pitching has been a major point of contention for the Jays, who didn’t make any major upgrades to the rotation after losing Taijuan Walker, Chase Anderson, and Matt Shoemaker to free agency. Instead, they re-signed Robbie Ray, traded for Steven Matz and opted to develop several young pitchers who had excelled in their bullpen in 2020 as starting pitchers, waiting in the wings.
The question of who exactly is going to make the rotation has pretty much been answered, barring the signing of someone like Rick Porcello or Cole Hamels. With that said, there’s going to be plenty of starts to go around, given that the Jays are going to want to handle injury-prone starters Hyun-jin Ryu and Nate Pearson with some degree of caution after the shortened 2020 regular season. There’s also the likelihood that the Jays will be buying starting pitching at the deadline. I mean, first of all, I would certainly fucking hope so, but also, it would likely change the complexion of a starting rotation that has some upside, but also has a whole lot of question marks.
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(CURRENTLY) HEALTHY LOCKS
Hyun-jin Ryu, left-handed, no options (pictured)
Robbie Ray, left-handed, no options
Tanner Roark, right-handed, no options
Steven Matz, left-handed, no options
When he’s not decimating people in dodgeball games on Korean reality shows, it turns out that Hyun-jin Ryu is a very good pitcher. In his first season with the Jays, Ryu started twelve games, pitching 67 innings with a 2.69 ERA, which is backed up by a 3.01 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, and 3.11 Expected ERA.
Toronto’s undisputed ace doesn’t have elite velocity by any stretch of the imagination. His 4-seamer only averages 89.8 mph, but he mixes in a cutter and an elite changeup, throwing each of those pitches about a quarter of the time while mixing in a sinker and a slow curveball. The latter serves as a deceptively lethal put-away pitch. Ryu’s success lies in his ability to induce soft contact, and he’s one of the best in the game at that, as his Statcast metrics indicate. He’s finished in the 93rd, 89th, and 90th percentiles for limiting Hard Hit percentage in 2018, 2019, and 2020, respectively.
Alongside his ability to induce soft contact, Ryu does a great job limiting walks, holding batters to a 4.2 BB% over the last three seasons, and striking out a fair bit of hitters to boot (24.5 K% from 2018-20). He’s turning 34 before the beginning of the regular season, and he’s been injury-prone throughout his North American career, so his health is definitely something the Jays are going to be monitoring. If Ryu can continue being a Top 10 pitcher and stay healthy for the whole season, he should be a bedrock of stability atop a Jays rotation that would seem to be lacking it.
With Nate Pearson looking like he may start the season hurt, Robbie Ray slots in as the Jays’ number two behind Ryu. Knowing this, a cursory look at his stats and analytics prompts some questions.
Boasting a solid fastball/curveball/slider mix and a terrific strikeout rate, Ray was an All-Star with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2017 (2.89 ERA/3.49 xFIP/3.53 SIERA), and remained solid in 2018-19 (4.17 ERA/3.76 xFIP/3.97 SIERA), though his high walk rate (12.1%) was concerning. In 2020, Ray struggled to lock down a consistent delivery and his stat line punished him hard for it. Over his seven games with the Diamondbacks last year, his command was virtually nonexistent, as evidenced by a 20.1% walk rate. He got absolutely crushed to a 49.4% Hard Hit rate, resulting in a 7.84 ERA and a one-way trip to Buffalo to join the Blue Jays, who hoped that the change of scenery (as well as the coaching of Pete Walker) would help Ray turn things around.
The results? Encouraging! Mostly! In 20 ⅔ innings with the Jays, Ray was noticeably sharper, cutting his walk rate down to a merely bad 14.4%. Likewise, his Hard Hit rate went down to a similarly bad, but not absurdly terrible 41.4%, and his peripherals echo that trajectory, with his 6.44 xFIP with Arizona becoming a 4.95 xFIP with Toronto.
Going from monumentally awful to mediocre isn’t the most inspiring trajectory, but the Jays nonetheless saw enough potential for growth to re-sign Ray to a one-year deal. He’s displayed better command in spring training, and Toronto will hope that success carries over to the regular season. If Ray can get close to where he was in 2017 (or even 2018-19) he could be a nice bounce-back story for the Blue Jays.
Speaking of potential bouncebacks, oh BOY, Tanner Roark.
Roark was signed to a two-year deal before the 2020 season with the idea that he would be a veteran innings-eater that wouldn’t light the world on fire but could save the bullpen some work. That, uh, didn’t materialize. Over 11 games in 2020, Roark averaged 4 ⅓ innings per start, much to his chagrin.
To be totally fair to him, that quote is a little bit out of context. And I get it! It’s not fun to be brought on board to do a very specific thing and then be used in a different way that maximizes all your faults. To be similarly fair, but also immeasurably harsher, there were very few games in 2020 where Roark wasn’t self-evidently terrible.
Roark lost anywhere from 1.4 to 3.1 mph on each of his pitches, and it shows. When looking at his pitches’ Run Values on Statcast, one example that jumps out to me is his sinker. It was his best pitch by a wide margin in 2019, but it was absolutely destroyed in 2020, with a 50% Hard Hit rate.
Roark, who’s already never been one of the top 50 per cent of pitchers in terms of strikeout rate, had his walk rate balloon as well (7.1 BB% to 10.5 BB%). For 2021 to be successful for Roark, who’s lost 10 pounds over the winter and has had a good first two starts of spring training, he needs to prove that 2020 is an aberration. Even getting the Ol’ Diesel Engine back to his 2019 performance would be a plus. If this persists in 2021, and he keeps getting knocked out of games early and generally being an innings-eater that doesn’t eat innings, the Jays will have to ask themselves if it’s worth trotting him out once or twice every week. With that said, it’s too hasty to say that a handful of shitty starts in 2020 is who Tanner Roark is now.
Hard as it may be to believe, Steven Matz had an even worse 2020 than Tanner “Dump Truck” Roark. In nine games (six of them starts) with the New York Mets, Matz had an impossibly putrid 9.68 ERA, losing his spot in the rotation to the likes of Seth Lugo. The Mets rotation has been bolstered by the acquisitions of Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, and Joey Lucchesi on top of the likes of Marcus Stroman, David Peterson, and Jacob Fucking deGrom. It’s safe to say they could afford to trade Matz to the Jays for Sean Reid-Foley, Yennsy Díaz, and Josh Winckowski (who was subsequently shipped off to Boston in the Andrew Benintendi three-way trade).
The move was certainly underwhelming to Jays fans hoping for a big starting pitcher signing or trade, especially with Walker, James Paxton, and Jake Odorizzi still free agents at the time. And I won’t say it’s not still underwhelming, but there are reasons to be optimistic. Really!!!
Matz is a hard-throwing lefty who relies on his sinker over half the time while also mixing in a changeup, a curveball, and the occasional slider. Before 2020, he had mostly been a solid starter for the Mets, except for an awful 2017 season. From 2018-19, Matz had a 4.09 ERA, which was backed up by a 4.23 xFIP and a 4.29 SIERA. He got hit pretty hard both of those years, but he also struck out enough batters and limited them to enough walks that he was still a solid 3/4 starter.
2020 was awful for Matz, clearly. But there’s reason to believe that he’s not irreparably damaged. First of all, ERA in general isn’t a very telling stat in a shortened season. It’s prone to dramatic fluctuations based on one awful outing. Looking past Matz’s ERA, his peripherals were shockingly solid (4.15 xFIP/4.05 SIERA), and he had solid strikeout and walk rates. The main difference seems to be that hitters made better contact off of his bread-and-butter sinker compared to the previous two years, as his sinker’s Run Value of nine compared to his previous numbers seems to indicate.
Maybe the Jays and/or Pete Walker saw something in Matz’s approach that they felt they could fix and sprang for him. He’s gotten off to a great start in spring training, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put a nice season together with the Jays.
LIKELY INJURED TO START THE SEASON
Nate Pearson, right-handed, options (pictured)
As reported by The Scold here on JAYSLAM (and/or Hazel Mae, I guess), Nate Pearson is out right now with a minor groin strain, which is looking likely to keep him on the IL to start the season. It’s frustrating and discouraging (especially for Pearson) to see the Jays’ top prospect continue to be fettered by flukey injuries, but I think there’s at least a little bit of an upside to it. To shamelessly quote myself:
“The Jays especially want to play it safe with Pearson, who has pitched a grand total of 112⅓ innings throughout the last three seasons in the majors and minors. There was likely to be some sort of limitation placed on Pearson due to his injury history anyways, so this may be more so a matter of that playing time being limited earlier in the season rather than later. I’m inclined to believe that the later in the season Pearson can stay in the rotation the better, so let‘s just fixate on the silver lining for now.”
In 2020, the 24-year-old Pearson at times looked like the pitcher he’s projected to become, blowing by hitters with a 96-100+ mph fastball while also using a solid four-pitch mix that includes a curveball, a changeup, and a god-killing slider. This is most clearly demonstrated by his big league debut against the Nationals, and his playoff appearance against the Rays, being one of the only worthwhile parts of that godforsaken series.
On the other hand, he definitely went through some growing pains. He didn’t strike out nearly as many batters as you would hope with that stuff, and he walked a ton of batters. And he missed a month of the season with an arm injury. So, some glimpses into the sheer potential that got him 10th place on both Fangraphs and Keith Law’s Top 100 Prospects lists, but also a ton of rawness to work through.
Like I mentioned earlier when I self-indulgently quoted myself, it’s a little unclear as to what role Pearson will play when he comes back from his groin injury. I have to think he’ll be a starter for a solid chunk of the year, but as the Jays plan on limiting his use, it’s also easy to picture him being used later on in the season in either a multi-inning relief role (I will not invoke Aaron Sanchez, I will not invoke Aaron Sanchez, I will not invoke AaronSanchez, IwillnotinvokeAaronSanchezI̶w̶i̵l̸l̷n̶o̸t̸i̸n̸v̶o̷k̴e̶A̶a̵r̴o̵n̷S̶a̵n̴c̴h̷e̴z̷Į̴̡̡͖̼͔̺̰͔̜̻̻̙̞͈͈̯͍̩̯͔̦̺̳̹̳̭̙̯̘̙̭̟̪̲̜̜̪͙͍̟͉̩̳̟̂̐̌̃̈́̊̄́́̏̊̆͑̈́̀͂̇̍̂̏̃̒́̆̏̇̏̆͛́̋̀͜͜͜͝͝ͅw̸̧̢̡̢̧͖̗̖̩̰̭͉̘̹͙̰̤̥̦͖̗̺͕̞̮̹͇̬̱̹̘͚̟̠̼̻͍͔̣̪̝͈͍̟̮̰̹̣͈̖̦̱͖̭̌̏̇̊̀́̓͂̿̍̈́̓̏͘͜͝i̵̡̢̡̢̨̢̢̢̨̛̲̤̼̞͇̙̯̼͍̯̫̬̘̣̪̪̟̦̜̹̭͙̲͎̘̦̘̙̪͎̦̲̘̝̘͙̦̰͎̼̽̂͑͌̐́͛́̆ͅͅͅļ̴̢̧̨̛̪̬̳͚̳̣̦̼͉͚͈̹͓͓̰̝͓͕͚̣̝̪̱̰̣͖̩̟͙̬̦̬̬̖͖͉̺͔͓͖͇̩̟̤̦̓̇̔̆͒̐͆̋̏̓̾̈́̔͛́͊͐͌̓̒̃̈́́̿̃̂͌͗̏̉̈́̉͂́͐̆̈́̓͋́̍̿͑̕̚͘͜͜͝͠͠͠͝ͅͅl̶̡̡̡̨̧̛̤̲̪̭̲͕̜̯͎̠̝̺̤͕̯̯̱̖͇̦͖͓̺͉̰̞̣̱̯̮̭̪͕̺̥̯͍̙̘̪̱͎͚̰̹̋̎̿̄̑̍͛͋̈̓̕͜n̶̛̳̫̰̘̽͋͂̈́͋̇͂̏͐̆̈̄̌̒̋̈́͆̒͗̈́͂̇͆̓̀̿̽̓̾̈́̔̇̓̔̎̿̚̚͝͠͝õ̵̬̩̊͗̎́͊͗́̉̋̌̐̇̆́̓̀͑͒̾́̉̇̋̓͐̾̐̈́̄̂̌͂̿̈́̇̒̅͘̕͘̚͠͝͝͝͝t̸̢̢̧̡̯͈̱̪̩͖̭̮̬̬͈͓̙͈̩͎̼͕̘̠̮̲̱͕͙̥͙̓͐̓̈́̑̀̌̈́̂̿̋̄̌͒̿̂̒̈͂̄̿̂̃̏̃̈́͑̽̏̇̿͋͌̈̕͠͝ỉ̶̧̼͚͉͓̱͎̫̙̺͎͈̱̼̲͍̻̳̲̭͔̓̾̄̓̽͛̏͛͛̚ņ̷̢̨̢̮̘̱͍̺̼̜͓͇̦̰͙̮̖̝̳͙̣̤̦̲̥̭̫̪͚̻̮̜͎̟̜͎̖̞̤̒̅̆́̂̐́̉̆́͋̔̒͆̓̀̈́̍̔̊̽̇̑̿̑͑̔̊͆̈́͗̊͊͆̉͛̚̕̚̚͘͠͠ͅv̴̡̝̻̞͈͈̰͇͔̤̥͙̰͇̥̻̪̬̠̮̗̟̫͉̣̗͙͈͎̻̿͆̄ͅͅͅo̴̧̧̨̨̡̢͔̮̖͔̞͔̘̭̙̻̹̹̮̮̝̼̺̻̹͈̜̥̬̣͉̬̹̫͎̞̥̻͓̲̱̣͎̭͈̼̜̥̦̖̱̰͑̾̽̈̀̾̌̂̇̅̀̒̾̂́̾̏̅͊̓̄͘͘͜͠͝k̵̡̧̡̧̦̖̟̱͎̭̦͕̣̹̟̪̘͇͕͔̻͍̹͍͒́͛͜͜e̷̥̗̻̲̝̪̹̋̊́͗̎̉̊̐͑̓͗͒̂͑͗̾̾̒̾͋̀͑̌͒̀̈́̾̌̚͝͠͠͝͠A̶̢̨̢̛̛̺͖͕̼͈̲͓̝̞̯͔̣̫̻̘̻̲͕̬̗̳͔͐̾̂͆͌̂̌͒̏̎̓̈̂̇̅̏̿̈́͜͝͠ͅͅa̶̡̡̨̡̛̗̪̼͎̱̪͚̰̲̤̻͉̞̼̻̠̗̦̼͕̣̹̮̪͎̱͕̩̜̹͉͉̣͉͓͙͖̙͙̪̗̦̹̱̲̘̱͓̦̦̓́͊̏̐̂̊͐̎͒͛̈́͛̌̃̓͂͆́̀̽̈̔̒̅̀͛̈́̽̏̊̾́͆̎͂̆̀̃͐͊̓̋͘̕̕̕̚̚͝͝ͅͅͅr̶̨̧̡̢̮̮͎̩͔̦̼̤͇̫͎͇͕̫͈̭͚͇͉̦̪̬̥͔̼̗̼͍̭̣̺̤̙̻͈̘̘̥̪̦͔̳̼̠̓͌̍̓̾̂̈́̚͘͜͝ơ̶̡̨̧̡̧̛̭̖̘͉͓̳͈̞̹̖̙͚̣̮̦̮̥̭̫̩̭̱̘̲͔̮̜̬̤̫͎̳̦̭̮̪͈̝̭͋̽̈́͛͒͛͑̀̓̊̊̎̍̓̄͌͒͐̃͆͒̄̑̓̂͛̊̎́̄͌͗̈̀̀̽́͂͑̀̍̊̀͘͘͜͝͝ͅͅņ̴̜̺̜̲͈̼̠̻̠̦͕̩̟̂̊̅̃͑̓͂̑͒̃̊̏̽́̈̎̍̐̎̄͊̌͑̃̆̿͛̊̔̀̿͋̾̈͒̐̂̅͊͗̈́̐̕̚̚͘͘͝͠S̶̛̼̥̣͕͊̌́̽̾̍͂͜a̴͉̗̰͇͙̖͇̘̬̗̜̖͇̫͐́͒̈́̀̃̔̀̍̆͋̋͌̊̿͘͠n̴͍̘̝̹̬̟͊͝c̸̡̛̫̟̫̮̠͍̮̙̯̖̆̂͒̀̉̋̇̈̑͂͐̊̈́͂́̊̉̿͂͌̃̋̍́͒̑̂͌̆͛̍͛̊́͊͂̌̓̃͌̆́͆̾̄͐̀͘̚̚͝͝͝͝͠͝h̴̩̟͔͉̎̍͌͘é̸̙̣̬̗̘́͂̇̊̾́̿̈̓̑͋͊͘͝z̷̡̧̬̱͉̼͙͓͍͚͓͍̟͉̹̀̂͜͜ͅͅͅ) , or piggybacking off of, say, Robbie Ray or Steven Matz.
S T O N K MASTER IN-CHIEF
Ross Stripling, right-handed, options (pictured)
In the bullpen preview, I wrote the following on Stripling:
“Ross Stripling is an interesting one. A podcaster, S T O N K expert, and part-time swingman who was never able to eke out a permanent spot in the Dodgers’ rotation through no real fault of his own. After all, you try smoothly inserting yourself into a 5-man group that also has to include some combination of Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Yu Darvish, Julio Urías, Dustin May, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill and Alex Wood. 2020 was definitely a down year though, and a midseason trade to the Jays didn’t alleviate that. However, the Jays do expect him to contribute to the big league team and seem to be assuming that his 2020 was an outlier in an otherwise fine career. This is probably the right way to look at it, too. Beyond being an easy guy to root for, I’d certainly weigh the 212 ⅔ innings he pitched from 2018-19 (3.22 ERA/3.44 FIP/3.24 xFIP) over the 49 ⅓ in 2020 (5.84 ERA/6.15 FIP/4.95 xFIP).
Technically, Stripling is currently competing with the likes of Tanner Roark and Steven Matz for two spots in the starting rotation, but I have a hard time seeing the Jays going with him there, if only because Stripling has a lot more experience out of the bullpen as a long reliever. However, I think we may see him start some games if only to give the likes of Hyun-jin Ryu and Nate Pearson an additional day off. And if Roark, Matz, or Robbie Ray falter, don’t be shocked to see Stripling assume a more solidified role in the starting 5.”
Obviously, the situation has changed since then. Stripling is all but guaranteed to start the season in the starting rotation with Pearson hurt. Whether he holds on to it or is moved back to a swingman/spot starter role is up to his performance, and if he can get closer to his pre-2020 numbers.
Humorous and insightful! a good read.