You're Welcome (Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays)
Your boy’s catching an early flight back to the maelstrom of COVID hell that is Alberta, so this is going to be another short post. Which is fine, because thinking about the Rays for too long is like trying to win a staring match with the deadlights from Stephen King’s It.
Before we get into some news, Best Bird awards, as well as the upcoming three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays, if you like what Jayslam is doing, please consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or an enemy! I’m happy with either.
In the ten Toronto Blue Jays that I’ve been to in person over the course of my life, the Jays have gone 6-4. That includes a 4-2 record at the Rogers Centre and a 2-1 record this year. To ensure that this .600 (at worst!) win rate continues, help finance future cross-country travel, consider getting a paid subscription! Paid ones get you access to exclusive posts such as the podcast portions of my pre-season predictions (which are, as always, not looking so good), as well as to the comments section.
SCOREBOARD WATCHING
The Boston Red Sox grabbed hold of the first wild card spot with a sweep of the Baltimore Orioles. They’ll now have a day off and play a short two-game set against the New York Mets in anticipation of their weekend series against the New York Yankees, which could go a large way towards determining both teams’ fates.
Not that the Yankees needed any help inflicting wounds upon themselves. After beating Cleveland 8-0 on Friday, New York dropped the next two games, with the third and final game of the series featuring the Guardians drubbing Gerrit Cole. Give Robbie his trophy already!
TRANSACTION NEWS
There’s simply no other way to put it: Hyun Jin Ryu has been kind of awful the last few months. In 12 games since the All-Star Break, he’s posted a cringe-inducing 5.61 ERA. He’s still had starts where he’s looked like vintage Ryu- limiting walks, getting soft contact, and dotting the corners of the plate- but the ratio of those games vs. starts where he gets blown out of the water is getting worrying, to say the least. His last two starts against Baltimore and Minnesota have been his worst of the year.
Ryu is a command pitcher, meaning that he relies on his feel to achieve the pinpoint accuracy necessary for his game plan to work. When he doesn’t have the feel working, he loses his command. When he loses his command, two things can happen. The first is that more walks can be given up. This hasn’t been the case with Ryu, who’s walk rates have ben more or less steady. What has happened was that Ryu’s pitches have begun leaking over the plate. Ryu’s stuff is not overpowering. So when Ryu’s pitches land in a very hittable zone, they have a tendency to get tattooed, as his Statcast page indicates.
Ryu’s going on the IL with what’s being described as “neck tightness”. Whether this is a legitimate concern or a cover for a temporary case of “left-arm shittiness” is beyond my knowledge, but whichever of the two it is, hopefully the break gets him back on track. It hasn’t yet been confirmed who’s taking Ryu’s place in the starting rotation, but all signs would seem to point to Ross Stripling, who threw a few innings of long relief after Ryu’s blow-up on Friday.
Reliever Joakim Soria went on the Family Medical Emergency on Sunday, so hopefully everything turns out okay on that front. Replacing Ryu and Soria on the active roster are relievers Tayler Saucedo and Anthony Castro.
BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (13) 12 plate appearances, .556/.667/1.000, 9 total bases, 5 Weighted Runs Created, 0.20 Win Probability Added, 0.30 WPA/LI
Vladdy’s extremely photogenic weekend also came with a true measure of his excellence this season: His clinching of the 2021 Best Bird title for hitters. Who needs an MVP, amirite?
Honourable Mentions: Corey Dickerson, Bo Bichette
Pitcher: José Berríos (3) 6.2 innings, 27 batters faced, 4 hits, 3 earned runs, 6 strikeouts, 4.21 FIP, 0.13 Win Probability Added, 0.04 WPA/LI
Berríos was excellent against his former team, with the decision essentially coming down to him, fellow starter Steven Matz (who was also terrific), and reliever Trevor Richards with an outside shot, as he shut down the Twins in some pretty high leverage spots (though he gets docked points for his awful, awful walkup music, which I hadn’t had the misfortune of hearing until going to the Rogers Centre).
With that said, Hyun Jin Ryu not winning Best Bird this week in fairly disheartening fashion clinched the 2021 Best Bird title for pitchers. It’ll look good on his trophy shelf. Also, memo to Robbie Ray: Invest in a trophy shelf. You’ll be able to afford it soon.
Honourable Mentions: Trevor Richards, Steven Matz
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 13 (clinched)
Bo Bichette- 8
Marcus Semien- 7
George Springer- 7
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- 4
Teoscar Hernández- 3
Joe Panik- 2 (now on the Miami Marlins)
Randal Grichuk- 2
Santiago Espinal- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1 (10-day IL)
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 14 (clinched)
Hyun Jin Ryu- 9
Alek Manoah- 7
Ross Stripling- 4
Steven Matz- 4
José Berríos- 3
Julian Merryweather- 2
Adam Cimber- 1
Trevor Richards- 1
Anthony Kay- 1 (Triple-A)
Anthony Castro- 1
Ryan Borucki- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Monday, September 20 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Robbie Ray vs. Shane Baz (MLB debut)
Tuesday, September 21 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Alek Manoah vs. Drew Rasmussen
Wednesday, September 22 (3 p.m. EST/1 p.m. MST): Ross Stripling (presumptive) vs. Michael Wacha
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 91-59
Run differential: +172 (796 runs scored, 624 runs allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 9-7
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 2-2
Last 10 games: 4-6
Best Players:
Brandon Lowe, Second Base, .235/.333/.494, 128 wRC+
Mike Zunino, Catcher, .209/.296/553, 131 wRC+
Randy Arozarena, Left Field/Right Field, .269/.348/.452, 124 wRC+
Joey Wendle, Third Base, .271/.323/.428, 108 wRC+
Shane McClanahan, Starting Pitcher, 3.51 ERA/3.22 xFIP, 27.9 K%, 7.4 BB%
Underperformers:
Michael Wacha, Starting Pitcher, 5.56 ERA/3.95 xFIP, 22.6 K%, 5.8 BB%
Ryan Yarbrough, Starting Pitcher, 5.30 ERA/457 xFIP, 17.9 K%, 4.2 BB%
Luis Patiño, Starting Pitcher, 4.73 ERA/5.00 xFIP, 22.5 K%, 9.1 BB%