What were YOU doing when you were putting off writing this post?
I was watching Blue Jays Legend Wilmer Font toss a perfect nine-innings of a ten-inning game for the SSG Landers against my favourite Korean team, the NC Dinos.
Yes, that Wilmer Font. What a world.
Anyways, we’re back on our prolific spring training prognosis series, spanning the previous post in the series (for the position player conversation, click here) through to, uh, just this other one. Barring *njur*es, the bullpen is much more defined and formed than in previous years. Jordan Romano suffered a mild ankle sprain walking his dog, but all signs point to him being ready to step in as closer on opening day. Free agent signing Yimi García should slot in behind him alongside the returning cast of Tim Mayza, Adam Cimber, and Trevor Richards. With the starting rotation full, swingman Ross Stripling returns to the bullpen for now, and veteran journeyman David Phelps has earned himself a spot as well. With all the expanded roster spots likely going to fortify the bullpen, that leaves three spots to fill with four guys.
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Inj*ry Notes
Nate Pearson suffered the latest in what’s been a carousel of setbacks over the last few years for the big 25-year-old flamethrower, getting struck down by an unnamed illness that may prevent him from making the Opening Day roster. Meanwhile, lefthanded reliever Ryan Borucki is dealing with a hamstring injury that will necessitate an MRI.
With no space in the starting rotation and nothing left to prove in Triple-A, Pearson looked to open the season with the Blue Jays as a multi-inning reliever, a role he has excelled at thus far in an incredibly young MLB career (2.54 ERA in 14 1/3 relief innings), to build up an innings count. While his first appearance has almost certainly been delayed, that would seem to still be the plan. He’ll likely step back into that role once he’s healthy and maybe gets some innings of fake baseball under his belt. And not a moment to soon.
Ryan Borucki had a rough 2021 season, in which he once again displayed an inability to get right-handed hitters out. He also left his sinker and slider out over the plate much more that he would’ve liked leading to, yes, a lowering walk rate, but also to a jump in hard hit rates and a drop in strikeouts, with batters squaring up the ball before Borucki could cut them down.
While he didn’t do himself much favours. Borucki still had the inside track on the job of being the top or only lefty in the Jays’ bullpen not named Tim Mayza. Not only have Andrew Vasquez and Tayler Saucedo not distinguished themselves from him over their brief careers, but he’s also out of options, meaning that Toronto would risk losing him on waivers if they cut him, thus meaning that he’s likely to get some run in the bullpen until he proves that he can’t. Hamstring injuries are no joke though, and he won’t get the chance to secure his spot in the relief corps until the Jays judge him to be good and ready.
Andrew Vasquez
Here’s what I said about Vasquez when he was first acquired in mid-March.
We can’t really glean too, too much from all of Andrew Vasquez’s six and two-thirds innings in MLB, but last season’s Triple-A numbers are a bit more telling. Among Triple-A pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, Vasquez’s strikeout rate of 38.0% ranked fourth overall in 2021. On the other hand, his walk rate (11.5%) is well on the higher side, though he did hold opposing hitters to a .158 batting average.
You might look at the high strikeout and low walks and presume that Vasquez is some sort of somewhat effectively wild flamethrower, but you would be incorrect. In his short major league stints, he’s actually used breaking pitches the mast majority of the time. According to Baseball Savant, for 26 of his 27 pitches with the Dodgers, Vasquez employed a sharp low-80s curveball (though Fangraphs disagrees, labelling the pitch a slider). He’ll mix in a soft sinker that lives in the low 90s and has occasionally mixed in a changeup.
You try thinking of something original to say about a quadruple-A lefty specialists with less than seven MLB innings under their belt.
Vasquez was signed to a Major League deal, but he also has options, meaning that he can be sent down by the Blue Jays at no risk of another team snatching him up. With Borucki likely injured though, Vasquez only needs to be better than Tayler Saucedo to get his shot. If he doesn’t right out the gate though, he’ll start the year in Triple-A.
Julian Merryweather
Ah, Julian Merryweather. How your April 2021 will haunt my nightmares.
Much has been said about the incomprehensibly 30-year old Merryweather’s few games of brilliance early last season, particularly on Opening Day when he broke Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres with the full strength of his arsenal. What is more so mumbled and danced around is how not-spectacular he looked when he came back from injury in September, with a 7.27 ERA in 8 2/3 innings. However, the potential to establish himself as a higher-end piece in a big league bullpen is clearly visible for all to see, even if time and an unfortunate injury history are working against him. His high-90s fastball has looked electric in spring training, and his slider has always looked sharp. They, along with his curveball and changeup, have looked unhittable at times. But while walks haven’t been an enormous concern when his command slips, he’s tended to leave both of them where hitters can drive them hard, which negates their nastiness somewhat.
Barring the unthinkable, Merryweather is honestly a cinch at this point to make the Opening Day roster. What’s more up in the air is if he’ll play well enough to stay on the Blue Jays come May 1. I wouldn’t bet against him, but it’s just up to his various past physical ailments to cooperate.
Tayler Saucedo
28-year old left-hander Tayler Saucedo was a low-key pleasant surprise to come out of last season, putting together a nice 25 2/3 innings. He won’t blow anyone away with velocity (though he does have a high spin rate on his fastballs), but he doesn’t leave any of his five pitches (his main one being a sinker he’s used almost half the time) over the plate much, instead preferring to dot the edges and corners. He’s gotten a surprising amount of chases and whiffs, as well as very little soft contact when hitters are able to put bat on ball.
With Borucki possibly missing Opening Day, Saucedo should be considered the favourite to replace him in the aforementioned role of “top or only lefty in the Jays’ bullpen not named Tim Mayza”, as he’s done better than Andrew Vasquez against tougher competition in spring training. While no one should hope that Borucki’s injury causes him to miss games of course, Saucedo’s a guy who’s very easy to root for and who’s done well enough to earn another shot to prove he can stick around.
Trent Thornton
Oh boy, Trent Thornton.
You may have noticed a trend with a lot of these bullpen candidates, and Thornton is no exception to that rule. He doesn’t have much velocity, but his fastball, cutter, slider, and curveball all have enviable spin rates, and he’s both struck out and walked hitters to about league average rates. When he’s able to get hitters to chase, he’s been downright nasty in short stints. When he can’t get chases though, he’s forced back in the zone with his four-seam fastball. And that’s where he gets in trouble. Opposing hitters tuned up his fastball with a .405 Expected wOBA.
Thornton’s not likely to get another shot as a starting pitcher, so sticking around as a multi-inning reliever is his last, best shot at this point. He has a couple option years remaining, so he has time to figure it out, but for now, he’s making the team on the strength of both a strong spring training and Nate Pearson being out.
Speaking of which, as for the final composition of the Opening Day bullpen, this is what Roster Resource is predicting.
Seems pretty accurate, though if Borucki has to miss time, that opens the door for Saucedo or Vasquez, with Saucedo being the favourite at this point in my estimation. Even with Pearson and Borucki out though, this is a pretty solid group. I wonder how we lined up on Opening Day last ye-*I instantly go into convulsions upon remembering Tyler Chatwood’s Blue Jays tenure, writhing and foaming at the mouth*
Great job!