A Case Study in Treading Water While Elite (Series Preview: Boston Red Sox (7-9) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (10-6))
April baseball is great, because you can have a team be tied for the lead in one of the hardest divisions in the sport. This team can be undefeated in five series against some of the tougher teams in the American League (and also the Oakland Athletics), and may have just come off a near-sweep of the Houston Astros, the best team in the American League over the last fistful of years.
Yet, the near-universal consensus on said team among fans and outside commentators alike is “eh, they’ll be something special when they finally put it together I guess”.
The Jays have been middle of the pack in the early going, merely above average in hitting (110 wRC+, 9th in MLB) solidly average in pitching (3.63 ERA, 17th in MLB), and either abysmal or quite good at defence, depending on who you ask (7 DRS, 9th in MLB and -5.5 UZR, 29th in MLB). They haven’t exactly been elite with regards to their expected stats either, with a .333 Expected Weighted On-Base Average (11th in MLB), hardly what we expected going into the season, and they’ve gotten some favourable pitching luck by the looks of it, with a .340 xwOBA Against (22nd in MLB). The Blue Jays haven’t played like chumps, to be sure, but they have yet to start firing on all cylinders. That should be terrifying for the rest of the league, and not just because drawing any sort of meaningful conclusion from 16 games is basically an exercise in futility.
As has been much discussed, the Blue Jays are going through a meat grinder of an early schedule, having already enjoyed their first and only break in the first 31 days of the season. They won’t get their next off-day until May 9, at which point they’ll start getting more rest days and start facing softer opposition. Quibble if you want with the individual performances of players. Bo Bichette is scuffling, José Berríos’ statline hasn’t yet recovered from his Opening Day catastrophe, and Cavan Biggio looks lost at the plate. However, all… Most of those conundrums figure to resolve themselves in due time. It is, after all, Early (TM).
And on the other hand, Vladdy has been excellent, Matt Chapman has delivered on both sides of the ball, Kevin Gausman has looked like the best pitcher in baseball, Alek Manoah has been awesome, and Zack Collins will not stop ripping dingers to right field. The trajectory of this team is extremely positive. Buy into the Blue Jays as badly as Sportsnet wants you to buy into crypto.
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TRANSACTION NEWS
In lieu of any actual transaction news, have Tyler Heineman doing some slick magic.
…Is what I wanted to say. Unfortunately, the pandemic has other plans.
Cavan Biggio is off to an incredibly weak start to the season (.043/.214/.043, -6 wRC+), and while suffering through COVID symptoms is not an ideal way to be getting time off, the “getting time off” aspect of that equation may prove to be a blessing in disguise. Of course, Biggio’s health is of course the biggest priority, as is ensuring that none of the other Blue Jays have COVID.
Biggio’s absence leaves Gosuke Katoh, who has worked a couple of walks in three plate appearances, as the main infield backup, and he’ll likely be the first in line to fill in at second base if necessary, or first base when Vladdy plays DH. Bradley Zimmer may get more time in right field too, where Biggio has been playing a fair bit after Santiago Espinal usurped him at second.
Bowden Francis was acquired in last year’s deal with the Brewers that also got Trevor Richards in exchange for Rowdy Tellez. Francis is ranked as the 9th best Blue Jays prospect by Fangraphs, as well as 15th by MLB.com.
Brendan Gawlowski and Eric Longenhagen said the following on Francis for Fangraphs:
Francis had statistical success through the mid-minors by relying on plus command of three fringe pitches. Then he added a slider in 2021 and now has four distinct offerings, of which the slider has quickly become the best. It’s also hard, which is important because Francis’ curveball is a low-70s rainbow, averaging about 73 mph, while the slider has been up to 87 and sits a bit below that. He has a power pitcher’s style with soft stuff, but Francis’ feel to pitch is excellent and we think he’s an imminent backend starter.
That’ll (probably) play! If added, Francis figures to step in as a long relief option for an overused Toronto bullpen, especially if the team needs to cover some garbage time innings. Over three starts with Triple-A Buffalo this season, Francis has a 4.11 ERA with a 27 K% and 7.9 BB%. He’s been dinged by home runs (2.93 per 9 innings), but it’s worth mentioning that’s far above his career average in the minors.
BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Santiago Espinal (1) 13 plate appearances, .273/.273/.909, 2 home runs, 3 Weighted Runs Created, 0.37 Win Probability Added, 0.38 WPA/LI
Excuse me, what the fuck??? When did Santiago Espinal, our scrappy little glove-first utility player, become Yuli Gurriel if he was also an excellent second baseman?
For the season, both the (extremely early, sample size-affected) metrics and the eye test would confirm that Espinal has played an excellent second base, and with the bat, he’s slashed a roughly league-average .220/.286/.420 with a 99 wRC+. That may not look excellent, especially compared to his .311/.376/.405, 115 wRC+ 2021. However, that 2021 slash line was boosted by some unsustainable batted ball luck (.344 wOBA/.307 xwOBA, .353 BABIP), and that version of Santi was due for some regression. The 2022 version? Much more encouraging!
The insane thing about Espinal’s 2022 is that it’s the reverse of his 2021, to an extent. His development of doubles power (or as I like to call it, “the thickening”) has led to him making much better contact, driving balls into the left-centre gap. And he’s actually been getting unlucky! His BABIP has floundered to a .243 compared to a .338 career rate, and his xwOBA is an excellent .382 compared to an actual wOBA of .307.
Uh. Quick question: Small Sample Size (TM), obviously, but how are Marcus Semien and Trevor Story doing?
Interesting!!!
Honourable Mentions: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Pitcher: Alek Manoah (3) 6 innings, 25 batters faced, 7 hits, 2 earned runs, 5 strikeouts, 0 walks, 0 home runs, 0.05 Win Probability Added, 0.08 WPA/LI
Oh, Alek Manoah merely threw his third straight quality start in his least-sharp outing of the season? Clearly regression is coming for him.
Honourable Mentions: Yimi García, Trent Thornton
Best Bird Standings:
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 2
Santiago Espinal- 1
Zack Collins - 1
Danny Jansen- 1
Pitchers:
Alek Manoah- 3
Kevin Gausman- 1
Jordan Romano- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
(Stats are from 2021-22)
Monday, April 25, (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST):
Nathan Eovaldi (3.75 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 25.8 K%, 4.6 BB%, 52.4 HardHit%)
José Berríos (3.67 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 25.6 K%, 6.1 BB%, 39.5 HardHit%)
Tuesday, April 26, (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST):
Nick Pivetta (4.91 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 25.7 K%, 10.3 BB%, 41.5 HardHit%)
Kevin Gausman (2.82 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 29.4 K%, 5.1 BB%, 41.3 HardHit%)
Wednesday, April 27, (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST):
Michael Wacha (4.73 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 22.8 K%, 6.5 BB%, 41.8 HardHit%)
Ross Stripling (4.77 ERA, 5.04 FIP, 20.9 K%, 7.2 BB%, 38.2 HardHit%)
Thursday, April 28, (3 p.m. EST/1 p.m. MST):
Garrett Whitlock (1.76 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 28.6 K%, 5.5 BB%, 36.4 HardHit%)
Alek Manoah (3.05 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 27.3 K%, 8.7 BB%, 30.7 HardHit%)
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 7-9 (58 runs scored, 64 runs allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 1-2
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 1-2
Last 10 games: 4-6
Inquisitive minds doing their own research! Love to see it!
Best Players (2021-22 Stats):
Nathan Eovaldi, Starting Pitcher, 3.75 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 25.8 K%, 4.6 BB%, 52.4 HardHit%
Xander Bogaerts, Shortstop, .301/.370/.494, 133 wRC+
Rafael Devers, Third Base, .278/.346/.530, 132 wRC+
Enrique Hernández, Super Utility, .243/.330/.436, 107 wRC+
J.D. Martinez, Designated Hitter/Corner Outfielder, .285/.349/.514, 128 wRC+