The Reckoning-New York Yankees (89-67) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (87-69)
I don’t usually like dealing in absolutes. I’m a fairly firm believer that any baseball game or series that fans and pundits would describe as “must-win” could be more accurately described as “it would rule to win, but given that there’s like thirty games left, odds are it’s not going to be the death of your playoff chances if you lose.”
Likewise, it’s tough to look at a series and say “this is one that the Jays should win” or “this is one that the Jays should sweep”. While it’s easier to predict a series, winning three or four games is still an incredibly hard thing to do. And you look at this week’s series against the Yankees, in which the Jays are sending an on-and-off Hyun Jin Ryu to the mound on Game 1, New York is countering with Gerrit Cole Game 2, and the Jays are sending Robbie Ray in Game 3, and you see how only taking one out of the three games is entirely reasonable, even for a home series.
Well, piss on reason.
We’ve had a few series this year be described as the biggest of the year, from the home opener in Toronto against Kansas City, the wild sweep of the Oakland Athletics, and the subsequent four-game road sweep of the New York Yankees. But it’s pretty clear that, at least in sheer terms of determining the Jays’ playoff chances and the team having the best chance possible to control their own destiny, this series is the biggest one of the year, by far. And it’s as close to “must-win” as you’re gonna get, to the point where I wouldn’t blame anyone for telling me to stop being so goddamn pedantic and just call it a must-win.
It’s not an easy assignment. The Yankees are running hot, and the Jays have most recently played an overall poor series against the Montreal Expos, and a four-game split against the Twins that they just barely managed to debatably salvage. But it’s a challenge that the young team has to rise to meet. This series could be the deciding factor in whether or not the 2021 Toronto Blue Jays become another storied team in the franchise’s history or a fun team that remains a footnote in another club’s story. I sure fucking know which one of those I’d rather be. Win the damn series, let’s go.
Before we get into some news, Best Bird awards, and the upcoming series against the New York Yankees, if you like what Jayslam is doing, please consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or an enemy! I’m happy with either.
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SCOREBOARD WATCHING
The stupid fucking Boston Red Sox and their stupid fucking plague rat roster didn’t do the Jays any favours, getting swept by the Yankees in Boston like the fraudulent losers they are. Now they’ll get a couple soft series to try to right the ship, as they head down to Baltimore and then to Washington. Lose, ya schmucks!
The Seattle Mariners are still hanging around against all logic and reason, taking two out of three from the Angels. They took the first of their three-game home series against the Oakland A’s, who had just come off a three-game sweep of the Houston Astros.
TRANSACTION NEWS
Third base got a boost, as Santiago Espinal returned from the IL, where he’s been since August 28 with a hip injury. Espy immediately becomes the Jays’ de facto starting third baseman, with his combination of pesky slap-hitting and excellent defence puts him ahead of Breyvic Valera, who’ll step back into a utility role, and Kevin Smith, who’s been optioned back to Triple-A.
Cavan Biggio might disagree with that characterization, given that he’s also getting off the IL, with Ryan Borucki going the other way, to Triple-A. Biggio has been inactive since August 2, and had been having a poor season on both sides of the ball. It’ll be interesting to see how Biggio’s deployed, not just because of his underperformance, but because of how nagging his injury has proven to be.
Joakim Soria was reinstated from the Family Medical Emergency List on Thursday, only to immediately be placed on the COVID IL on Friday. Soria hasn’t played for the Jays since September 15, and he’s only pitched eight total innings in ten games for Toronto. The 7.88 ERA doesn’t paint a pretty picture, but four of his seven earned runs came in one appearance against Oakland, in which he was unable to get an out. If you remove that game from the equation, that ERA deflates to 3.86. It’s a bummer that he’s been unable to play for as much as he has, but there’s little reason to believe he wouldn’t be a useful piece for the Jays down the stretch, though he’s easily far from a high leverage option, having fallen behind not only Romano, Mayza, Cimber and Richards, but also Nate Pearson on the totem pole, at this point.
Kirby Snead has been called up to replace him for the time being. Which, I mean, sure.
Hyun Jin Ryu will soon be called up after what proved to be a short IL stint. He’s in line to get Game 1 against the Yankees and Game 3 against the Orioles. Pretty crucial games for a guy who’s been pretty bad recently. A couple of Ryu starts at the top of his game would go a big way towards clinching a playoff spot.
Right after I posted the last series’ preview, third baseman Jake Lamb was designated for assignment by the Blue Jays. This doesn’t come as a surprise, both for roster configuration reasons and for the fact that Lamb simply did not play well in his short stint with the team, slashing .129/.256/.290 with a 48 wRC+. Given that Lamb wouldn’t have been eligible for the postseason roster (being acquired after the August 31 deadline), and is a worse defender than both Espinal, Breyvic Valera, and Kevin Smith, it’s no surprise that Lamb was the first one on the chopping block with Espinal and Biggio back.
BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Teoscar Hern´andez (4) 16 plate appearances, .313/.313/.813, 13 total bases, 4 Weighted Runs Created, 0.13 Win Probability Added, 0.11 WPA/LI
Pay this man.
Hitter: Marcus Semien, Danny Jansen
Pitcher: Robbie Ray (15) 6 innings, 25 batters faced, 3 hits, 1 earned run, 6 strikeouts, 4 walks, 3.66 FIP, 0.28 Win Probability Added, 0.11 WPA/LI
Words fail to describe the confidence one feels when every fifth game, you can look at your team’s starter and think “oh yeah, I’m like 75 percent sure we’re gonna win today”.
Pitcher: José Berríos, Tim Mayza
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 13 (clinched)
Bo Bichette- 8
Marcus Semien- 7
George Springer- 7
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- 5
Teoscar Hernández- 4
Joe Panik- 2 (now on the Miami Marlins)
Randal Grichuk- 2
Santiago Espinal- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1 (10-day IL)
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 15 (clinched)
Hyun Jin Ryu- 9
Alek Manoah- 8
Ross Stripling- 4
Steven Matz- 4
José Berríos- 3
Julian Merryweather- 2
Adam Cimber- 1
Trevor Richards- 1
Anthony Kay- 1 (Triple-A)
Anthony Castro- 1
Ryan Borucki- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Tuesday, September 28 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Jameson Taillon vs Hyun Jin Ryu
Wednesday, September 29 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Gerrit Cole vs José Berríos
Thursday, September 30 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Corey Kluber vs Robbie Ray
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 83-73
Run differential: +44 (687 runs scored, 643 runs allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 10-6
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 11-5
Last 10 games: 7-3
Instead of politely eating shit and dying, the New York Yankees have, rudely, gone on a tear since the Blue Jays humiliated them at home earlier this month. That includes a 10-3 run since moving Gleyber Torres from shortstop, where he’s been terrible for years, to second base, where he’s been terrible for a smaller sample size. I worry that if you brush aside the gravel in the Yankee Stadium shortstop are, you’ll find a broken seal of blood, previously holding the Yankees in check, that Torres had been protecting.
Link to my still-relevant write-up on the Yankees earlier this month.
Best Players:
Gerritt Cole (Starting Pitcher) 3.08 ERA/2.89 xFIP, 33.9 K%, 5.9 BB%
Aaron Judge (Right Field) .284/.370/.520, 146 wRC+
Joey Gallo (Left Field) .202/.355/.470, 127 wRC+
Giancarlo Stanton (Designated Hitter), .277/.359/.520, 139 wRC+
Jordan Montgomery (Starting Pitcher)
Underperformers:
Gleyber Torres (Shortstop/Second Base) .257/.331/.358, 92 wRC+
Andrew Heaney (Long Relief) 5.83 ERA/4.12 xFIP, 26.9 K%, 7.3 BB%
Gio Urshela (Third Base/Shortstop) .254/.301/.413, 95 wRC+