The 2021 Blue Jays Trade Deadline Extravaganza
The Vibes. They are good.
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THE NEW BLUE JAYS
Joakim Soria
Leading off with the big one, are we?
First of all, those Diamondbacks jerseys rule. Come at me. Or don’t, I don’t know if that’s a hot take anymore. Whatever.
Second of all, the Jays traded for 37-year-old relief pitcher Joakim Soria from the Arizona Diamondbacks for two players to be named later. No word yet on who’s coming off the 40-man to make room for him.
Soria is a good low-key addition for the Jays, who have done a great job upgrading their bullpen. His 4.30 ERA isn’t awe-inspiring, but it belies solid strikeout, walk, and hard contact rates. He throws a four-seamer almost 60 per cent of the time, and while it does get hit around a bit, he compliments it by mixing in a slider, changeup, and occasional curveball. Not much more to say about it. It’s good! Everything’s good!
This is also cool!
José Berríos
After a fairly dispiriting day in which the Jays missed out on Joey Gallo, the Blue Jays just went out and did the damn thing, trading for 27-year-old starting pitcher José Berríos from the Minnesota Twins for prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson.
It’s certainly a high prospect cost, but we’ll get to that in a bit. For now, the main question is: Does José Berríos clearly and unequivocally help the Jays contend in 2021 and 2022. And that answer is a suitably unequivocal “YES. FUCK YES.”
To be sure, Berríos isn’t exactly a true ace, and a cursory glance to the ol’ Baseball Savant page might stir up questions of why the Jays gave up such a haul for a year and a half of him. But the thing is: He may not be Max Scherzer or whoever, but he’s still certainly really good.
Berríos strikes out an above-average amount of batters while nicely limiting both walks and hard contact. He features hard fastballs (a four-seamer and a sinker) that both average at around 94 mph and that he’ll use 25-30 per cent of the time each. He’ll also feature a low-80s curve that hitters have trouble squaring up, and a changeup.
Again, does this add up to an ace? No, not necessarily. But he doesn’t have to be an ace. He’s an entirely dependable starting pitcher who averages over six innings per start while providing an ERA of around 3.75. Which lest I remind you, is really, really good. After Hyun Jin Ryu and Robbie Ray, Berríos pretty clearly becomes their third-best starter. And he’s around for another year! Maybe more if the Jays extend him! Which they should!
Good vibes in Jaysville. Unless you’re a prospect hugger. On that note:
SO LONG. GOODBYE. I’LL SEE YOU WHEN I SEE YOU.
Austin Martin
Okay, man, so here’s the thing.
I think everyone, certainly me, was really excited when Austin Martin fell to the Jays in last year’s draft. Some called him the best hitter in the draft, after all. The hype was justified in being unreal. Rosterbation about a lineup that included Vladdy, Bo, Springer, Hernández, etc. has been Jays fans’ favourite hobby for the last year.
And he’s had a good year in Double-A, slashing .281/.424/.383. If that gets replicated in the Major Leagues, that’s a really good batter.
But again, and I’m not just saying this because I’m emotionally distancing myself to justify the trade, here’s the thing though…
Take his slugging percentage. Subtract his batting average. That’s an ISO of .102. He has not been hitting for any power whatsoever this season.
In his midseason Top 50 Prospect list, The Athletic’s Keith Law has more in his blurb on Martin:
“Martin’s swing has become a bit more inside-out this year than it was in college, possibly because of a hand injury he sustained on a slide in mid-May, but he’s still getting on base at a high clip — .409 so far on the season in Double A, .428 since the start of June — just without power. He’s been splitting time between shortstop and center field, with the latter the more likely position of the two, especially as his throwing hasn’t been great when he has to move to his right at short. He hasn’t had an extra-base hit in a month, which is almost certainly a result of that inside-out approach, but he’s doing all the other things he’s supposed to be doing, and has a strong leadoff profile once he gets back to his usual swing.”
Well, clearly the Jays were a little more concerned than Law. At least to the extent where he wasn’t untouchable. Also worth noting is that he doesn’t have a clear position, which has always been a talking point with Martin.
None of this is to say that this isn’t an overpay. I’m still inclined to say it is, but that’s pretty standard for trades. Nor is it to say that Martin won’t be good, or even great. We could look at him in five years and think “damn, fuck, that would have been nice to have”. But the fact of the matter is that nobody in the last year has had a better chance to evaluate Austin Martin than the Toronto Blue Jays. And not to defer to authority, but if they’ve decided that he’s worth moving for Berríos, I think there’s reason to consider that they may, in fact, know what they’re talking about.
Especially since we got José Berríos out of itLET’S FUCKING GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Simeon Woods Richardson
As part of the return from 2019’s Marcus Stroman trade, starting pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson is another highly regarded prospect sent to the Twins in the Berríos trade. But one cursory look at his stats gives a pretty good indication of why the Jays were okay with letting him go.
The ERA vs FIP would seem to indicate that Woods Richardson is getting unlucky, but there are still worrying signs. He’s going less than five innings per start, and while his strikeout rate has crept up, his walk rate has almost doubled. Baseball America recently dropped him off their Top 100 list, and he didn’t figure on Law’s list at all.
To be fair to SWR, he’s had his season interrupted twice, pitching for Team USA at both the Americas Olympic Qualifier in June and the currently ongoing Tokyo Olympics. It’s possible (likely?) he never had a chance to get into a real groove. Regardless, what I said above for Martin still applies.
Tyler Chatwood
Yeah, that seems about right.
An indirect casualty of the trades for Berríos and Soria, Tyler Chatwood is the one getting the axe. He looked like a really solid addition for about a month there, but just completely lost the handle at some point, walking the field and getting blown up with alarming frequency. The Blue Jays were right in at least trying to get him right and back to where he was, but this seems to be an admission that it just wasn’t happening.
So What Now?
As much as it may feel like a bigger deficit sometimes, and as much as it sucks to see the Yankees greatly improving, the Red Sox and A’s marginally improving and the Rays… Doing whatever the fuck the Rays do, the Jays are only 4.5 games out of a wild card spot. They owed it to this young, potential-laden team to take a shot at the playoffs this year while still keeping an eye to the future. And it’s safe to say they accomplished just that.
Trading for Berríos obviously greatly improves the rotation while Soria gives a boost to the relief corps. But it also provides a pathway for shifting one of Ross Stripling or Steven Matz to move to the bullpen. And you could make a solid case for either. Stripling has more experience in the role of long reliever, but he’s also been solid as a starting pitcher for a while now. Matz has struggled more often, but he also has experience coming out of the pen, albeit not as much. My money is on Matz getting shifted, but I could see them going either way.
By my count, this is what the Jays’ full-strength pitching staff looks like, give or take a guy.
High-leverage:
Jordan Romano
Brad Hand
Ideally mid-leverage, but can be situationally used in high-leverage:
Adam Cimber
Trevor Richards
Joakim Soria
Mid-leverage
Ryan Borucki
Rafael Dolis
Tim Mayza
Long relief:
Steven Matz/Ross Stripling
Next guys up:
Tayler Saucedo
Anthony Castro
Nate Pearson (???)
Kirby Snead
Trent Thornton
John Axford
That’s straight-up solid. That is a far cry from what we were looking at just a month ago. Mission accomplished.
The one area where I feel the Jays could have improved but didn’t is the offence. Joey Gallo would have looked really good, but dwelling on that aside, there were other options out there that would have helped take some of the pressure off of Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Randal Grichuk. It wasn’t the most pressing need, but it would have been nice to see an upgrade. Trade for José Ramírez in the offseason. Do it. Please.
Despite what some weirdos will say while whinging about giving up Martin and Woods Richardson, the Jays are still extremely well-positioned to be dominant in the coming years. As for the rest of the season, the plan seems clear: Have a great last two months, make the playoffs, and see what happens from there. Playoffs are a shitshow, and flags fly forever. You just never know.