Thank God For the Stanley Cup (Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays (17-15) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (19-13))
Or: Oh God, Oh Sh*t Oh F*ck Not Here Not the Trop Not Now F*ck F*ck F*ck F*ck F*ck
With a two-game sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees now complete, the Toronto Blue Jays have more or less officially hit their first skid of the year, and boy did it ever feel that way on Tuesday, when Jordan Romano, who did not have his best stuff at all, hung a slider to Aaron Judge, which had me reaching to turn off the laptop as soon as I saw the break.
All that I mentioned before still applies: Assuming that this is the new normal for the Jays would be quite naive, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t meet or exceed their high expectations because of a bad couple of weeks in May. Doesn’t make it fun, though!
Now the Jays head to the Eldritch Horror of Tropicana Field for the first time this season, where they’ll try to end this road trip on a somewhat positive note. Before getting into it, if you like what Jayslam is doing, please consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or an enemy! I’m happy with either.
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TRANSACTION NEWS
No news has been made official as of writing Friday morning, but all signs point to Hyun Jin Ryu returning off the IL to start Saturday against the Rays. After a four-inning rehab start with Buffalo, Ryu will slot in the same spot he had before, bumping Ross Stripling back to the bullpen after an admirable stint in the rotation.
BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Alejandro Kirk (1)
Quietly, Alejandro Kirk has put together a nice month of May thus far, slashing .323/.371/.484 in 35 plate appearances. And while his power metrics are still down even with the bat starting to come around, much has been made of Kirk’s improvements behind the plate. While last year, Kirk’s framing was quite poor, ranking in the 31st percentile, this year, he’s up to the 88th percentile, tenth overall in MLB. Fangraphs not only has him as a top ten framer but thus far one of the best all-around defensive catchers in the game, though the usual caveats about defensive metrics in small sample sizes do apply.
Among catchers with over 150 innings played at the position this season, Kirk ranks third in defensive runs saved with four, behind only James McCann and Ryan Jeffers. Kirk still hasn’t hit for much power this season, and he remains prohibitively slow on the basepaths, but while it’s too early to draw any definitive conclusions one way or the other, an Alejandro Kirk that hits at even 80 percent of his potential while also playing good defence is an exciting proposition indeed.
Honourable Mentions: Bo Bichette, George Springer
Pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi (2)
Did anyone say Steven Matz?
Kikuchi had tough assignments these past couple weeks of: Beat the Yankees not only once, but twice consecutively, and while his offence didn’t pick him up in game two, he did admirably both times. Interestingly enough, his pitch mix changed both days. According to Pitcher List, he used his cutter almost 40 percent of the time in game one, almost as much as his four-seam fastball. In game two in the Bronx, he ditched his cutter entirely, using his slider, which he hadn’t used at all in game one, 31.5 percent of the time, and he used his four-seamer, by far his best pitch, a whopping 59.6 percent of the time.
Am I sure what exactly the plan is with Yusei Kikuchi yet? Aside from using his four-seamer more and being more selective in his use of cutter or slider on any given day, not really. Does he have potential the Jays can work with? Yes, and I would’ve told you that even before these last two starts. None of this is to guarantee future success, but there’s been encouraging signs as of late.
Honourable Mentions: José Berríos, Trevor Richards
Best Bird Standings:
Hitters:
Santiago Espinal- 2
George Springer- 2
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 2
Alejandro Kirk- 1
Bo Bichette- 1
Zack Collins - 1
Danny Jansen- 1
Pitchers:
Alek Manoah- 4
Kevin Gausman- 3
Yusei Kikuchi- 2
Jordan Romano- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Friday, May 13 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST)
Kevin Gausman (2.13 ERA, 0.76 FIP, 31.3 K%, 0.7 BB%, 29.9 HardContact%)
Drew Rasmussen (Presumptive) (2.89 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 23.2 K%, 6.3 BB%, 30.4 HardContact%)
Saturday, May 14 (6 p.m. EST/4 p.m. MST)
Hyun Jin Ryu (Presumptive) (13.50 ERA, 6.20 FIP, 14.3 K%, 5.7 BB%, 34.3 HardContact%)
Ryan Yarbrough (Presumptive) (6.14 ERA, 5.37 FIP, 17.1 K%, 11.4 BB%, 20.6 HardContact%)
Sunday, May 14 (1:30 p.m. EST/11:30 a.m. MST)
Alek Manoah (1.75 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 25.0 K%, 6.4 BB%, 22.1 HardContact%)
Corey Kluber (Presumptive) (4.55 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 21.6 K%, 4.8 BB%, 28.2 HardContact%)
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 16-16 (137 runs scored, 140 allowed)
Last 10 games: 7-3
It’s more of the same with the Tampa Bay Rays: Outperforming projections that aren’t designed to account for their style of putting a team together, getting excellent results from the new young phenom they called up and guys who would have been scrubs on other teams alike, and yet somehow being overshadowed sometimes by their horrible ownership. That said, much as I resent the Rays for patting themselves on the back for what’s essentially working under conditions imposed by a self-imposed limitation, they’ve looked good as usual.
Wander Franco is the big standout as he’s immediately stepped up to become one of the best shortstops potentially in all of baseball. Brandon Lowe, one of a couple other players that could reasonably be considered a “star” on this team, is off to a relatively slow start but has seen some bad BABIP look. First baseman Ji-Man Choi, corner infielder Yandy Díaz, speedy outfielder Manuel Margot, catcher Francisco Mejía, and former Blue Jay/Francisco Liriano trade piece Harold Ramírez have all made excellent use of what time they’ve had to play, as is of course tradition. Fan favourite outfielder Brett Phillips has been so excellent defensively that he’s still posted 0.4 fWAR in 21 games despite being a terrible hitter overall (.158/.226/.263, 53 wRC+).
However, there have been some Rays hitters who haven’t quite lived up to big 2021s. Catcher Mike Zunino’s defence has carried his value, as his slash line has cratered to .138/.197/.292 with a 49 wRC+. Ditto Kevin Kiermaier, who’s had an awful start to the season with the bat. Of the underperformers on this squad though, Randy Arozarena has been perhaps the most surprising, as he’s only slashed .223/.266/.347 with 87 wRC+.
Pitching-wise, Tyler Glasnow will likely miss the whole season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, Luis Patiño has a strained oblique, and top prospect Shane Baz is recovering from arthroscopic elbow surgery. That leaves the Rays with a rotation fronted by the excellent lefty Shane McClanahan, who the Jays will thankfully miss this time around, and Drew Rasmussen, who has looked similarly great. Ryan Yarbrough has looked terrible, which of course means that I’m terrified of what he’ll do to the Jays, and Corey Kluber has been quietly solid behind McClanahan and Rasmussen.
Of course, the Rays could and even likely will throw some reliever into the opener role when they get the urge to fuck around a bit. And that bullpen has, of course, been very good in the early going while being composed of people whose names I’m moderately sure were auto-generated in MLB The Show. Andrew Kittredge, J.P. Feyereisen, and Brooks Raley headline this group that also includes household names like Ryan Thompson, Jason Adam, Matt Wisler, and Collin Poche, players who you have never heard of, and then will absolutely dad-dick the opposition into submission. Fuck this team.
Best (Healthy) Players in the Series:
Wander Franco, Shortstop, .304/.328/.488, 146 wRC+
Manuel Margot, Outfield, .337/.400/.500, 176 wRC+
Yandy Díaz, Third Base/First Base, .263/.391/.358, 141 wRC+
Drew Rasmussen, Starting Pitcher, 2.89 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 23.2 K%, 6.3 BB%, 30.4 HardContact%
Ji-Man Choi, First Base, .283/.306/.472, 169 wRC+