On Monday, the Jays played their last Grapefruit League game of the year, meaning that the 26-man active roster (and 5-man taxi squad) will soon be on their way to New York to start the season against the Yankees. As for who will comprise the team, it’s more or less been decided. The remaining uncertainty mostly has to do with the status of George Springer, who has yet to be given the green light to return from a Grade 2 oblique strain.
It’s looking less and less likely that Springer will be available come opening day, which would leave the Jays with two open spots yet to be filled, one in the bullpen, and one wherever the club decides it’s necessary. Let’s take a look at who’s already won the competition for a roster spot to open the season, as well as who’s still hoping to get the call.
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So who’s confirmed or all but confirmed to make the team at this rate?
ROTATION (5)
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Ross Stripling
T.J. Zeuch
Steven Matz
Tanner Roark
BULLPEN (7)
Jordan Romano
Rafael Dolis
Tyler Chatwood
David Phelps
Ryan Borucki
Tim Mayza
Trent Thornton
CATCHERS (2)
Danny Jansen
Alejandro Kirk
INFIELDERS (6)
Bo Bichette
Cavan Biggio
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Marcus Semien
Rowdy Tellez
Joe Panik
OUTFIELDERS (4)
Teoscar Hernández
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Randal Grichuk
Jonathan Davis
Assuming that Springer is hurt to start the season, that’s 24 of 26 spots covered. Of those roster spots, the one that garnered perhaps the most fan and media attention was, bizarrely enough, the backup catcher spot, which was claimed by Alejandro Kirk, beating out Reese McGuire for the job.
It took all my willpower to say “out” instead of “off”. That can’t possibly say anything good about me.
Longtime Jayslam readers may remember the following pontification from my Spring Training Catcher preview.
The competition for the backup catcher job eventually comes down to two factors. First: How badly do the Jays want to hold onto Reese McGuire? He doesn’t have any option years left, so if McGuire looks absolutely terrible in spring training, does that make the Jays more likely to DFA him to make room on the 40-man for one of Joe Panik, A.J. Cole, Francisco Liriano, Tim Mayza, or Tommy Milone?
Second: What do the Jays feel is the best course of action for Alejandro Kirk’s development? Would they like him to be the everyday starting catcher in Triple-A and continue honing his defence there? Or do they feel that his big-league bat justifies him being the backup to Danny Jansen as well as a pinch-hitter and part-time DH, even if that costs him reps behind the plate? Do they feel that he can still develop as a defensive catcher even if he’s only catching about a quarter of the games? Would keeping him in the minors allow them to employ some “creativity” with his service time? We’re probably not going to have a clear idea until the end of March, but it’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out.
Yeah, throw all that shit out the window. There was no way that the Jays could have justified keeping Locomotive Kirk (who slashed .292/.333/.583 in 27 spring training plate appearances) down in favour of Reese McGuire (.158/.360/.316 in 25 plate appearances). By all means, point out that spring training stats mean absolutely nothing, but come on. Kirk’s bat clearly has nothing left to prove against minor leaguers. When the only argument that you can make in favour of keeping McGuire is that it provides more roster flexibility, you might not actually have much of an argument in favour of keeping McGuire.
Kirk will not only be the backup catcher, but will also be a legit pinch-hitting option, and is also likely to be Robbie Ray’s personal catcher once the pitcher gets back from his injury. As for McGuire, things don’t look great, per se, but it’s not completely hopeless. Depending on Springer’s situation, as well as how the Jays feel about having Riley Adams as their main injury replacement, they may still name McGuire to the opening day roster in the hopes of sneaking him through waivers a few days into the season. There are worse fates in the world than having Reese McGuire as your third-string catcher, but it’s not like there aren’t a bunch of veteran free agent catchers who can fill the role of a light-hitting, defensively-minded backup catcher (Tyler Flowers, René Rivera, Jonathan Lucroy, etc.). McGuire’s not useless, despite what some Very Online Jays fans might tell you, but he’s almost certainly not going to get a ton of play on the big league team, as things stand.
Utility infielder Joe Panik made the team, as was pretty much expected since he signed his minor league deal with the Jays, as I predicted in the infield preview. Santiago Espinal had a terrific spring training and will be waiting in the wings while starting every day in Triple-A. Richard Ureña has been reassigned to Triple-A, where he’ll serve as depth.
Breyvic Valera, on the other hand, finds himself in a situation similar to McGuire’s in a lot of respects. He’s out of options and may be carried on the opening day roster if only to sneak him through waivers a few days after the season starts. The main argument he has going for him, besides “Breyvic Valera is a fun name to say”, is his versatility. He’s mostly played second base but has played at least one professional inning at every position save for pitcher and catcher, with this past winter season in Venezuela seeing him mostly play center field for the Bravos de Margarita. Does versatility alone save him from DFA hell? I doubt it, but it’s not impossible. Regardless, his best shot at Major League playing time might come with another team, though he’d be right not to be thrilled about being bounced to his sixth organization in the last three years.
Jonathan Davis is a good story, though! I think I tempted fate by putting him in the “injury call-ups” section of my outfield preview and subsequently saying that he would only get called up in the case of an injury to one of the four main outfielders.
Whoops.
But hey, we like Jonathan Davis! He’s had a great spring, and he’s worked hard to get to this point, having been in the organization since being drafted in 2013. As for how long this stint with the team lasts, that’ll depend on both his play and the status of George Springer. He does have an option year left, so he may still find himself bouncing between the Jays and Triple-A. While he is with the big league team though, he provides good speed and the best outfield glove on a team that will take all the outfield defence he can get. We’ll have to wait and see on the bat, but he still profiles as a useful role player to have to come off of the bench.
Two weeks after I referred to him as the “forgotten man” out of the Blue Jays’ Triple-A starters and said he would have to “out-pitch a whole bunch of guys to get a shot at any significant amount of big-league action”, T.J. Zeuch went ahead and made the team. I like to think that I’m the one that motivated him.
With Robbie Ray out for at least his first scheduled start in New York, Zeuch is apparently the favourite to make a start in his place over Anthony Kay. The timing lined up with him getting knocked around by the Phillies on Monday, so, uh, maybe not the greatest feeling going into it, but we’ll see! He’s added some velocity in spring training, and his high-ground ball tendency may actually play up in Yankee Stadium’s Little League proportions. His complete and utter inability to miss bats is still worrisome though. Of the 47 batters he faced in spring training, he only struck out two of them. He’ll have at least one start to prove that he can be effective, though he’ll probably end up splitting time between the Jays and Buffalo.
As for Kay, it doesn’t look like he made the starting rotation, but he may still make the bullpen. Given that Francisco Liriano didn’t make the team though, it doesn’t look like the Jays want to carry a third lefty on top of Ryan Borucki and Tim Mayza. If Julian Merryweather isn’t ready for the start of the season though, he may still get a shot in the bullpen. If I had to guess though, I would assume they keep stretching him out in minor league spring training.
Speaking of Mayza, he’s another good story coming out of spring training, beating out Liriano (who I definitely thought would get the job) in the competition to be the second lefty out of the pen after Borucki. This will be his first time on a big-league roster since September 2019, when he underwent Tommy John surgery. If he can return to being the Tim Mayza of 2017-18 (29.1% strikeout rate, 3.39 xFIP, 3.07 SIERA), that would be a boon to an already solid Jays bullpen.
Trent Thornton is, at the risk of being repetitive, also a good story! After what ended up being a lost 2020, Ol’ Goggles has returned to the Majors to start the season in a long-relief role, as he’s not stretched out enough to step seamlessly into a starting pitcher’s role yet. Some folks (myself included) think that he’s likely best suited for a relief role anyways, and we’ll see how he handles the job here. If I had to guess, I’d assume that Thornton will probably go back to the Triple-A rotation once Ray and Nate Pearson come back, but he does have all the tools to hack it in relief in the meantime.
The one open spot left in the bullpen (assuming the other open roster spot goes to McGuire or Valera) is still somewhat up in the air. Julian Merryweather is probably the favourite, having thrown a couple innings after returning from a minor injury.
I would imagine the Jays go with Merryweather if he’s near or at 100 per cent, but if he’s not good to go, the Jays will probably go with the likes of Kay or A.J. Cole, who February Me would have been surprised to learn isn’t looking very likely to start the year with the team. He’ll have a solid chance at it if the Jays go with a 9-man bullpen, too.
Anthony Castro, Tommy Milone, and Travis Bergen all put up solid stat lines in spring training as well. While they’re not at all likely to make the rotation or the bullpen, they should figure in the taxi squad, potentially.
If you were to ask me predict the final roster going to New York, this is what I would go with.
ROTATION
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Ross Stripling
T.J. Zeuch
Steven Matz
Tanner Roark
BULLPEN
Jordan Romano
Rafael Dolis
Tyler Chatwood
David Phelps
Ryan Borucki
Tim Mayza
Trent Thornton
Julian Merryweather
CATCHERS
Danny Jansen
Alejandro Kirk
Reese McGuire (to be snuck through waivers after the opening series in favour of another reliever)
INFIELDERS
Bo Bichette
Cavan Biggio
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Marcus Semien
Rowdy Tellez
Joe Panik
OUTFIELDERS
Teoscar Hernández
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Randal Grichuk
Jonathan Davis
I’m fairly confident they’ll go with McGuire and Merryweather, but I could just as easily see them going with an extra reliever instead of a third catcher. Hell, maybe they’ll decide to keep Springer on the active roster and there won’t be room for an extra reliever or third catcher. We’ll just have to wait til Thursday to know for sure.
And for bonus receipts, here’s my prediction for the taxi squad to start the season.
Riley Adams (Catcher)
Santiago Espinal (Utility infielder)
Tommy Milone (Left-handed pitcher)
Travis Bergen (Left-handed pitcher)
A.J. Cole (Right-handed pitcher)
Great read!