Series Preview: Washington Nationals (8-11) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (10-11)
Despite the psychological warfare that Tropicana Field continues to wage on our brains making every series feel like a crushing three-game sweep, the Toronto Blue Jays managed to eke out a series victory against the Tampa Bay Rays. Has the positive momentum that I mentioned in the previous post finally been built up? Uh, debatable? It’s a lot of the same for the Jays, despite the generally better results in recent games. The offence is still wanting, but the pitching has been terrific, just as we all predicted.
The defence has been a major area of concern though, with both Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio struggling to get comfortable on the left side of the infield, which may in the future lead to a disconcerting conversation about which positions, exactly, are going to be their long-term homes. Until then though, I will continue to attribute this to somehow being the state of Florida’s fault.
To the Jays’ credit, the third game, a tightrope walk that they won 1-0, contained no defensive errors whatsoever. This isn’t exactly an accomplishment in and of itself, but it sure as fuck feels nice to see after the Jays committed six errors in the first two games of the series. Could this relatively clean defensive performance be because Marcus Semien and Santiago Espinal had replaced Bichette and Biggio at shortstop and third base respectively? I’m sure I wouldn’t know!
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BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Marcus Semien (1) 12 plate appearances, .364/.417/.636 197 wRC+, 0.142 WPA
There wasn’t really a clear contender for best hitter this series. Neither Vladimir Guerrero Jr. nor Bo Bichette got especially great results. Randal Grichuk hit a pair of home runs, but went hitless otherwise, leading to a very high wRC+, but not enough sustained production to settle on him. Ditto Cavan Biggio, who has nonetheless started to show some signs of life with the bat. Santiago Espinal was a tempting underdog pick, as he drove in the only run of game 3, but it didn’t feel right giving it to a guy who only played in one game, great as he did look in that one game. Rowdy Tellez played in one more game than Espinal and continues to look better and better with the bat, but in the end, I settled on Semien, who had a hit in each game of the series, including a three-run homer off Tyler Glasnow in game 1.
Honourable Mentions: Randal Grichuk, Rowdy Tellez
Pitcher: Robbie Ray (1) 6 innings, 25 batters faced, 6 hits, 3 earned runs, 9 strikeouts, 0 walks(!!!), 2.70 xFIP, 51 Game Score v2, -0.08 WPA
There were a lot of ways I could’ve gone with this one. Steven Matz turned in yet another solid start on Friday. If I wanted to get cute, I could’ve given it to Rafael Dolis, David Phelps, Tyler Chatwood, or Ryan Borucki, all of whom pitched some excellent high-leverage innings. That’s to say nothing of Hyun Jin Ryu, who had been shutting out the Rays through 3 ⅔ before succumbing to the dreaded (and thankfully minor, by all accounts) mild ass strain.
While Robbie Ray might not have had a flawless stat line (thanks to home runs from Mike Zunino and Mike Brosseau), he absolutely showed the form that the Jays were hoping for when they re-signed him. He looked absolutely electric, touching 98 mph with his fastball and keeping his command under check for the first time this season, walking absolutely nobody. If we can get more of this variation of Robbie Ray as opposed to the one who started in Kansas City, I am one hundred percent down.
Honourable Mentions: Rafael Dolis, Hyun Jin Ryu
ROSTER/INJURY UPDATES
On Friday night, Nate Pearson pitched in a rehab game against the Miami Marlins’ alternate site team.
That stat line is obviously not pretty, but honestly, as long as we have some semblance of proof that he’s making progress, whatever. With the Jays’ pitching depth, there’s no real reason to get picky.
Before the start of the series on Friday, Tanner Roark was placed on Family Medical Emergency Leave, which isn’t good to hear. As of the time of writing, he has yet to be reinstated. Hopefully, everything’s all good on his end.
At the same time, Anthony Kay was optioned, and in his and Roark’s places, up came left-handed reliever and Robbie Ray trade piece Travis Bergen as well as Tyler Chatwood, who was reinstated from the 10-Day IL, making two solid appearances in the series.
Bergen’s first 2021 MLB stint wouldn’t last especially long. He and outfielder Josh Palacios were both sent down on Saturday, replaced by both Ty Tice and Jordan Romano, who was also reinstated from the 10-day IL. Romano’s sole appearance in the series on Saturday was… Less solid. He didn’t show much command at all, walking the first two batters he faced and conceding the lead on a fielder’s choice before turning things over to Ryan Borucki. His fastball, which averaged at around 96 mph in 2020, maxed out at 94 on Saturday. Not optimal! That’ll be something to keep an eye on, unfortunately.
Confirmation that George Springer is indeed a baseball player playing for the Toronto Blue Jays sure would be nice! And given that his return has been teased since early April, and his return has been rumoured to be today, so could this be the day that we finally get to see George Springer in a Blue Jays uni-oh, for fuck’s sake.
Big sigh. I’m glad they’re waiting until he’s one hundred percent healthy, but it still sucks. Wednesday maybe. Or Friday. Soon, please, for the love of god, I’m dying over here.
There’s still no confirmation of when Teoscar Hernández might return from the COVID IL, but I can’t imagine he’ll be far behind. We may even see him this coming weekend. Trust my medical expertise! I have a journalism degree and I almost failed an entry-level Biology course!
In minor league depth signing news, my favourite kind of news (I’m only mostly joking), the Jays have signed veteran infielders Christian Colón and Dilson Herrera to minor league contracts. Colón was originally drafted out of Puerto Rico in 2010, the fourth overall pick that year. He was called up to the Royals in June 2014, splitting that season and the next between Triple-A Omaha and the Royals, where he slashed .303/.361/.382 with a 108 wRC+ in 64 games and 168 plate appearances in 2014-15. In the 2015 World Series, Colón had one at-bat as a pinch-hitter in Game 5 after not having made a plate appearance for four weeks. Nevertheless, in his first World Series at-bat drove in Jarrod Dyson with a single on what became the Series-winning run, the only time in MLB history that this has happened.
In fact, this is a common misconception. The 2015 postseason actually ended after the Top of the 8th in Game 6 of the ALCS. We’ll let Colón have this, but the important thing to remember is that the 2015 World Series did not actually happen.
Colón was never able to eke out a starting job for himself in KC, as he was blocked at various points in his career by the likes of Alcides Escobar, Whit Merrifield, and Adalberto Mondesí. A good glove wasn’t able to save his spot on the team long-term bad 2016 (.231/.294/.293, 59 wRC+ in 54 games) before being DFA’d in May 2017. Since his time with the Royals, Colón has bounced around to various organizations, appearing in very short stints with the Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds. For his career, he’s been a zero-power batting average merchant, slashing .249/.312/.310 with a 71 wRC+ over 161 MLB games. He has a solid glove though, with 6 Defensive Runs Saved and a 6.7 UZR over his career at second base, his best defensive position, though he was originally drafted as a shortstop, where he’s played the most innings of professional ball. He can also fill in at third and has spent a little bit of time at first base and in left field. He had originally signed with the independent Kansas City Monarchs of the American Association but was allowed by them to pursue an opportunity with the Jays.
Second baseman Dilson Herrera was signed in 2010 by the Pittsburgh Pirates as a teenager out of Colombia. He hit well in both the Pirates’ and Mets’ systems, resulting in a call-up to the Mets in August 2014 (becoming the first Met ever to start the season in single-A and make it to the Majors by the end of the season) and coming in at 109th on the Fangraphs Top 200 Prospects list in 2015.
As for his actual play, Herrera didn’t do much with the bat in his 2014 and 2015 stints with the Mets, slashing .215/.308/.383 with a 96 wRC+ in 49 games. His greatest moment of notoriety came on June 14, 2015, during a game against Atlanta in which Herrera, who had hit a home run that day, was seen wearing rally cups with the bottom of the cups cut out on his ears during the bottom half of the sixth inning. It’s a look!
In August 2016, Herrera was traded to the Reds for now-retired Jays legend Jay Bruce. He wouldn’t return to the big leagues until July 2018, and after electing free agency, would bounce around, going back to the Mets’ system, and then to the Orioles, who called him up for three games in 2020. After an offseason spent playing for the Caimanes de Barranquilla in the Colombian league and the Caribbean Series, Herrera had signed with the Olmecas de Tabasco of the Mexican Baseball League before being signed away by the Blue Jays.
A career .199/.290/.386 hitter (88 wRC+) in 105 MLB games, Herrera has some power but doesn’t hit enough to be a starter. He’s an okay defender, with his biggest selling point being his versatility, as he can play every infield position but shortstop, and he can fill in at left field if need be.
Colón and Herrera are clearly depth options and are likely bound for Triple-A alongside the likes of fellow depth guys Breyvic Valera and Richard Ureña. A lot will have to go wrong for them to see time with the Jays, but there’s no such thing as a bad minor league signing, and these are handy guys for the team to have at its disposal if need be.
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Tuesday, April 27 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Max Scherzer vs. Trent Thornton (presumptive)
Scherzer: Four starts, 25 innings, 1.80 ERA/2.99 xERA/3.28 xFIP, 35.9 K%, 4.3 BB%, .206 xBA Against, 29.6 HardHit%
Thornton: Six games (one start), 9 ⅔ innings, 1.86 ERA/4.05 xERA/4.39 xFIP, 15.8 K%, 7.9 BB%, .265 xBA Against, 44.8 HardHit%
Wednesday, April 28 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Erick Fedde vs. Steven Matz
Fedde: Four starts, 16 ⅓ innings, 5.51 ERA/4.37 xERA/4.14 xFIP, 24.3 K%, 10.8 BB%, .268 xBA Against, 38.3 HardHit%
Matz: Four starts, 23 ⅓ innings, 2.31 ERA/3.27 xERA/3.60 xFIP, 27.2 K%, 8.7 BB%, .228 xBA Against, 36.2 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 7-12
Run differential: -24 (62 Runs, 86 Runs Allowed)
Last 10 games: 5-5
When I did my season preview, those of you with paid subscriptions (*cough*) and access to the one-shot podcast I did (*COUGH*) may remember that I strongly considered the possibility that the Washington Nationals could finish in fifth in the NL East, behind even the Miami Marlins.
Behold: A prophet am I.
Granted, we’re working with a 19-game sample size and standings are absolutely useless until June, at the absolute earliest. But my entirely defensible point is that the Nationals, despite only being two seasons removed from winning the World Series, are bad.
Obviously, any lineup fronted by Trea Turner as well as Juan Soto, the best pure hitter in baseball, is going to score at least a handful of runs, it’s just a matter of who’s hitting behind them. Backups and bench bats Josh Harrison, Alex Avila, Ryan Zimmerman, and 33-year-old rookie Yadiel Hernández have been pleasant surprises thus far, but the two big signings of the off-season that were supposed to be comeback candidates, Kyle Schwarber and Josh Bell, have both been horrendous. And when the other hitters filling out the regular lineup (Starlin Castro, Yan Gomes, Andrew Stevenson and Víctor Robles) aren’t contributing much offence, that’s just not going to cut it. Put that all together, and you get a team wRC+ of 82. Good for 28th in MLB.
Oh, also, Soto is hurt. He won’t play the Jays. Good news all around in DC.
Stephen Strasburg is also on the IL, as is tradition, and he is joined by new acquisition Jon Lester, who has been out due to COVID-19 protocol since early April. In their absence, Max Scherzer has continued building on an excellent career, while Erick Fedde has a poor ERA, but okay peripherals. Joe Ross, on the other hand, hasn’t looked great, and Patrick Corbin has looked atrocious. With a 4.73 xFIP, good for 28th in the league, their bullpen hasn’t exactly helped matters either. The only bright spots in the back end of the pen have been Kyle Finnegan, former Blue Jay Daniel Hudson, and the newly-signed Brad Hand, who has outperformed his peripherals to a 0.00 ERA in six innings.
The Nationals clearly feel that they’re a better team than this, or else they wouldn't have thought they could compete with the Mets and Atlanta with just the acquisitions of Lester, Bell, and Schwarber. Even I could’ve told them that wasn’t going to cut it, and they’re proving me of all people right. It’s obviously too early in the season to make a definitive statement on anyone’s season, but if the Nationals want to prove that they can hang with their rivals, let alone compete for a playoff spot, a good result against the Jays would go at least a little bit towards accomplishing that.
Great commentary!!