Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays (43-39) vs. Baltimore Orioles (27-57)
Update: This preview was written before the Jays traded Rowdy Tellez to the Milwaukee Brewers for relief pitcher Trevor Richards and minor league pitcher Bowden Francis. A post focused on that trade will be coming out tomorrow.
Another week, another series win ever so slightly undermined by an annoying loss that is somehow related to the bullpen. Between the fact that the Jays still pulled off a series win over the Tampa Bay Rays, and the fact that the Yankees have been terrible, it’s hard not to be feeling some good vibes right now.
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BEST BIRDS
Hitter: George Springer (2) 12 plate appearances, .200/.300/.800, 10 total bases, 3 Weighted Runs Created, 0.18 WPA, 0.13 WPA/LI
I’m a little terrified to give George Springer the Best Bird this time around. Not because I could make an equal, or an even better, case that Vladdy deserves it yet again, but more so because the last time I gave it to him, he didn’t play for another month afterwards. Regardless, here I go, tempting fate once again.
Santiago Espinal may have won it had he played a little more, but he’ll at least get the honourable mention off the back of his first career home run.
Honourable Mentions: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Santiago Espinal
Pitcher: Alek Manoah (4) 7 innings, 25 batters faced, 3 hits, 0 earned runs, 10 strikeouts, 1 walk, 0.73 FIP, 84 Game Score v2, 0.18 WPA, 0.37 WPA/LI
I can’t say enough good things about the job Alek Manoah’s done with the Blue Jays, with whom he’s already surpassed the number of innings he pitched in the minors. While he’s not been perfect, he’s been better than anybody could’ve reasonably expected, holding hitters to a 29.1 K%, .187 batting average, and 1.01 WHIP, each of which is good for Top 20 in baseball since his debut on May 27. He’s had his struggles with command, to be sure, but the strange thing is that, seemingly through sheer willpower on Manoah’s part, they haven’t manifested in an especially high walk rate (8.1 BB%). Friday was his best start of the season thus far, as he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning and generally made the scuffling Rays look foolish.
Bonus points for his Instagram stories, which have basically become a combination of Hyun Jin Ryu love-fest and Korean BBQ food porn. Click that link quick, I have no idea how long Instagram stories last.
Shout-out to the other starters, Robbie Ray and Ross Stripling, both of whom were great once again, as well as new Blue Jay Adam Cimber, who’s looking good out of the bullpen already.
Honourable Mentions: Robbie Ray, Ross Stripling
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 9
Marcus Semien- 5
Bo Bichette- 4
George Springer- 2
Joe Panik- 2 (now on the Miami Marlins)
Randal Grichuk- 2
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
Teoscar Hernández- 1
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 6
Hyun Jin Ryu- 5
Alek Manoah- 4
Steven Matz- 4
Ross Stripling- 3
Julian Merryweather- 2 (60-day IL)
Anthony Kay- 1
Anthony Castro- 1 (sent down to Triple-A)
Ryan Borucki- 1 (10-day IL)
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Tuesday, July 6 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Steven Matz vs. Spenser Watkins
Matz: 14 starts, 72 ⅓ innings, 4.60 ERA/3.88 FIP/3.67 xFIP, 24.8 K%, 6.7 BB%, .247 xBA Against, 40.3 HardHit%
Watkins: One game (zero starts), one inning, 0.00 ERA/3.16 FIP/6.70 xFIP, 0.0 K% 0.0 BB%, .131 xBA Against, 0 HardHit%
Wednesday, July 7 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Hyun Jin Ryu vs. Matt Harvey
Ryu: 16 starts, 93 ⅔ innings, 3.65 ERA/4.19 FIP/3.99 xFIP, 19.4 K%, 5.5 BB%, .263 xBA Against, 40.9 HardHit%
Harvey: 17 starts, 72 ⅓ innings, 7.34 ERA/4.83 FIP/4.80 xFIP, 16.8 K%, 7.2 BB%, .295 xBA Against, 39.1 HardHit%
Thursday, July 8 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Alek Manoah vs. Keegan Akin
Manoah: Seven starts, 36 ⅔ innings, 2.70 ERA/4.44 FIP/4.03 xFIP, 29.1 K%, 8.1 BB%, .188 xBA Against, 33 HardHit%
Akin: Eleven games (seven starts), 41 innings, 7.46 ERA/5.33 FIP/4.81 xFIP, 20.4 K%, 8.6 BB%, 45.5 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 31-53
Run differential: -114 (346 Runs, 460 Runs Allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 2-5
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 3-3
Last 10 games: 4-6
It is very, very hard to find things to say about a team that the Jays will be facing for the third time in three weeks. Especially a team as bad as the Orioles (original statement, I know). I guess they designated knuckleballer Mickey Jannis for assignment, the cowards.
In all seriousness, the Orioles came out of their last series defeat to the Blue Jays quite well, sweeping the Houston Astros, the best team in the American League, in three games. Then, they promptly got swept by the Angels. Because baseball is very dumb.
Rookie Ryan Mountcastle is beginning to rebound, and Cedric Mullins continues to surge, becoming the best center fielder in the American League with Mike Trout and Byron Buxton out with injuries. On the other hand, Freddy Galvis will be out with a quad injury for at least a month, past the trade deadline. Not great news for a guy who’s on the Orioles for the explicit purpose of being traded.
The starting rotation continues to be the Orioles’ gaping wound of a weak spot, as opposed to their offence and bullpen, who are merely bad. With John Means out (and the effects of the ban on sticky stuff yet to be seen for him), and with Bruce Zimmermann joining him on the IL, the heavy lifting has been left to Matt Harvey, Jorge López, and Keegan Akin (who has the most Australian name ever despite being from Michigan). It’s gone about as well as you’d expect. The Orioles have been the worst in the Major Leagues in both ERA and FIP. Mullins, Mancini, Mountcastle, and Austin Hays have all been solid hitters, and the bullpen, with a back end of Paul Fry, Tanner Scott, Cole Sulser, and César Valdez, has been deceptively solid. But they can only do so much when Baltimore’s starters are being left out to die every day.
Best Players Thus Far:
Cedric Mullins, Center Field, .318/.345/.547, 154 wRC+
John Means, Starting Pitcher (10-day IL), 2.28 ERA/3.98 xFIP, 25.7 K%, 4.9 BB%
Freddy Galvis, Shortstop (10-day IL) .249/.306/.414, 97 wRC+
Paul Fry, Relief Pitcher, 3.77 ERA/3.08 xFIP, 31.6 K%, 12 BB%
Tanner Scott, Relief Pitcher, 2.73 ERA/3.83 xFIP, 32.9 K%, 17.8 BB%
Key Under-Performers:
Anthony Santander, Right Field, .236/.280/.385, 81 wRC+
Maikel Franco, Third Base, .221/.265/.376, 75 wRC+
Matt Harvey, Starting Pitcher, 7.34 ERA/4.80 xFIP, 16.8 K%, 7.2 BB%