Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays (30-27) vs. Chicago White Sox (36-23)
Downside: The Houston Astros are a really, really good baseball team.
Upside 1: Despite losing two of three games, the Toronto Blue Jays, who may also, in fact, be a good baseball team, generally hung in there throughout the series against the Houston Astros, who are a really, really good baseball team.
Upside 2: The Toronto Blue Jays no longer have to play regular season baseball games against the Houston Astros.
Downside 2: The Toronto Blue Jays now have to play three games against the Chicago White Sox. Who are very, very good.
Now the Jays pack their bags and leave for Chicago, where theyβll play a three-game series against another one of the best teams in baseball, this one inexplicably helmed by Tony La Russa. Before getting into it, humour me as I plead for engagement. If you like what Jayslam is doing, please consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or an enemy! Iβm happy with either, really.
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BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Joe Panik (2) 11 plate appearances, .364/.364/.727, 3 Weighted Runs Created, 0.01 WPA/LI
Huh.
I, uh, canβt say I had Joe Panik pegged for multiple Best Bird awards this year.
I could have gone with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. too, but I went with Panik, as he had a more consistently good series as opposed to Vladdyβs one great game. Teoscar HernΓ‘ndez also had a solid series and was the only Blue Jay who got multiple hits off of Zack Greinke.
Honourable Mentions: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Teoscar HernΓ‘ndez
Pitcher: Ross Stripling (1) 5 innings, 21 batters faced, 7 hits, 1 earned run, 4 strikeouts, 1 walk, 2.74 FIP, 54 Game Score v2, 0.14 WPA/LI
With Hyun Jin Ryu and Steven Matz faltering this series, itβs time to finally give Ross Stripling and his mechanical tweaks their due.
Honourable Mentions: Trent Thornton, Anthony Castro
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 6
Bo Bichette- 3
Marcus Semien- 3
Joe Panik- 2
Randal Grichuk- 2
Teoscar HernΓ‘ndez- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
George Springer- 1
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 5
Hyun Jin Ryu- 4
Steven Matz- 4
Julian Merryweather- 2
Ross Stripling- 1
Alek Manoah- 1
Anthony Castro- 1
Ryan Borucki- 1
Tuesday, June 8 (8 p.m. EST/6 p.m. MST):Β Robbie Ray vs. Carlos RodΓ³n
Ray: 10 starts, 58 innings, 3.57 ERA/4.72 FIP/3.34 xFIP, 29 K%, 6.3 BB%, .247 xBA Against, 48.4 HardHit%
RodΓ³n: Nine starts, 54 β innings, 1.98 ERA/2.63 FIP/2.67 xFIP, 37.2 K%, 6.0 BB%, .182 xBA Against, 39.7 HardHit%
Wednesday, June 9 (8 p.m. EST/6 p.m. MST): Alek Manoah vs. Lance Lynn
Manoah: Two starts, 9 β innings, 3.86 ERA/6.67 FIP/4.53 xFIP, 30 K%, 12.5 BB%, .217 xBA Against, 36.4 HardHit%
Lynn: Ten starts, 58 β innings, 1.38 ERA/3.01 FIP/4.03 xFIP, 26.8 K%, 7.2 BB%, .191 xBA Against, 38.2 HardHit%
Thursday, June 10 (8 p.m. EST/6 p.m. MST): Hyun Jin Ryu vs. Dallas Keuchel
Ryu: Eleven starts, 64 innings, 3.23 ERA/3.44 FIP/3.55 xFIP, 22.8 K%, 4.2 BB%, .245 xBA Against, 36.5 HardHit%
Keuchel: Twelve starts, 65 β innings, 4.25 ERA/4.88 FIP/4.26 xFIP, 12.0 K%, 6.9 BB%, .313 xBA Against, 37.7 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 39-20
Run differential: +85 (291 Runs Scored, 206 Runs Allowed)
Last 10 games: 7-3
Despite long-term injuries to young stars Eloy JimΓ©nez and Luis Robert as well as the continued employment of a racist serial drunk driver as their manager, the White Sox have continued to truck along as one of the best teams in the American League, proving both that depth is important, and that managers just do not matter all that much.
The White Sox, sandwiched between the Astros and Blue Jays at second place in the MAjors in terms of wRC+, see the Astros lineupβs Altuve-Correa-Bregman-Γlvarez-Lesser Gurriel-Tucker Top 6 and raise it Tim Anderson-Adam Eaton (hmm)-YoΓ‘n Moncada-Reigning AL MVP JosΓ© Abreu-YermΓn Mercedes-Yasmani Grandal. Never a good contact hitter, Grandalβs season especially is worth underlining on account of being utterly fascinating. Despite his .153 batting average, Grandal has been a well above average hitter, based on an enormous walk rate and ability to hit for power. Throw on a pretty bad strikeout rate, and you have yourself a nightmare scenario if youβre super averse to the three true outcomes.
Cuban Catcher Finds Trick to 4+ WAR Season With A Sub-.200 Batting Average! Boomers HATE Him!
YoΓ‘n Moncada has bounced back very nicely from a bad 2020, spearheading the offence along with Grandal and JosΓ© Abreu (you could even make a case for utilityman Jake Lamb, who has hit nicely since having his contract purchased). About a month ago, I would have included rookie sensation YermΓn Mercedes among that group, but since posting a 210 wRC+ in April, he has fallen off hard since then, with a 64 wRC+ for May and June combined. Not a great sign for someone whose value comes entirely from his bat.
Whether this is regression to the mean for a guy who was kind of a nobody just a few months ago, whether pitchers are starting to adjust to him, or whether itβs just a slump is yet to be seen. And I hope itβs just a slump because YermΓn is a ton of fun and I love spiting Tony La Russa! But hopefully, he can hold off on the bounce-back until after facing the Jays.
Despite Dallas Keuchel regressing and Lucas Giolito getting off to a slow start this year, Chicagoβs starting pitchers have been a Top 10 rotation, led by Lance Lynn and the resurgent Carlos RodΓ³n, who pitched the second of approximately 12 billion no-hitters so far this season. Dylan Cease has also put together a nice season, and Giolito has been rounding back into form. If that wasnβt enough, the White Sox bullpen has been the best in the American League according to FIP, and the best in baseball according to xFIP. Liam Hendriks has been every bit as brilliant as expected, striking out 42.6 per cent of hitters while only walking 3.2 per cent. Before getting hurt, Michael Kopech has been an excellent swingman after sitting out 2020.
Defying his name, Aaron Bummer has been solid, as has JosΓ© Ruiz, while flame-throwing rookie Garret Crochet has been electric. Codi Heuer and Matt Foster both sport ugly 6+ ERAs, but their considerably lower xFIPs suggest that theyβre getting burned by some bad luck. Evan Marshall is the only White Sox reliever who has been bad, per se, but with the rest of the pitching doing as well as it is, I doubt that Chicago is sweating it much.
In spite of La Russa (I donβt like him, folks), the White Sox are a top contender in the American League (it helps that theyβre the only team in their division that isnβt bad). In my opinion, they and the Jays are the most entertaining teams in the AL as well. Now if only they could be dogshit for this one series, that would be excellent, please and thank you.
Best Players Thus Far:
YoΓ‘n Moncada, Third Base, .294/.424/.431, 149 wRC+
Lance Lynn, Starting Pitcher, 1.23 ERA/4.08 xFIP, 26.8 K%, 7.2 BB%,
Carlos RodΓ³n, Starting Pitcher, 1.98 ERA/2.67 xFIP, 37.2 K%, 6.0 BB%
Tim Anderson, Shortstop, .291/.335/.432, 116 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 4.9 BB%
Yasmani Grandal, Catcher, .153/.392/.414, 136 wRC+, 25.8 K%, 28.3 BB%
Key Under-Performers:
Evan Marshall, Relief Pitcher, 6.23 ERA/4.62 xFIP, 20.0 K%, 7.8 BB%
Dallas Keuchel, Starting Pitcher, 4.25 ERA/4.26 xFIP, 12.0 K%, 6.9 BB%
Andrew Vaughn, Left Field, .228/.313/.393, 100 wRC+