Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays (17-16) vs. Atlanta (17-17)
Definitely making a point of writing a shorter preview this time because of another post I’ve been writing for Jayslam, and not because thinking of Nate Pearson’s start on Sunday fills me with Lovecraftian existential dread, noooooo, not at all.
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BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Cavan Biggio (1) 11 plate appearances, .250/.455/.625, 197 wRC+, 0.07 Win Probability Added
I’m deferring to the narrative here, and I could’ve easily given it to Marcus Semien again, but I decided to give it to Biggio, whose bat appears to be heating up, his home run on Saturday being one such example of this.
Honourable Mentions: Marcus Semien, Danny Jansen
Pitcher: Steven Matz (3) 5 innings, 23 batters faced, 8 hits, 3 earned runs, 4 strikeouts, 0 walks, 4.10 FIP, 42 Game Score v2, 0.02 Win Probability Added
Honourable Mentions: Tyler Chatwood, Jordan Romano
Best Bird Standings
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3
Marcus Semien- 2
Bo Bichette- 2
Randal Grichuk- 2
Cavan Biggio- 1
George Springer- 1
Pitchers:
Steven Matz- 3
Robbie Ray- 3
Julian Merryweather- 2
Anthony Castro- 1
Ryan Borucki- 1
Hyun Jin Ryu- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Tuesday, May 11 (7:20 p.m. EST/5:20 p.m. MST): Robbie Ray vs. Bryse Wilson
Ray: Five starts, 23 ⅔ innings, 3.14 ERA/4.58 xERA/3.86 xFIP, 25 K%, 7.8 BB%, .268 xBA Against, 48.7 HardHit%
Wilson: Three starts, 12 innings, 6.75 ERA/4.61 xERA/5.97 xFIP, 10.7 K%, 8.9 BB%, .236 xBA Against, 42.2 HardHit%
Wednesday, May 12 (7:20 p.m. EST/5:20 p.m. MST): Hyun Jin Ryu vs. Max Fried
Ryu: Six starts, 32 ⅔ innings, 3.31 ERA/3.35 xERA/3.12 xFIP, 24.2 K%, 3 BB%, .245 xBA Against, 31.3 HardHit%
Fried: Four starts, 16 innings, 8.44 ERA/5.68 xERA/3.82 xFIP, 24.1 K%, 7.2 BB%, .297 xBA Against, 40.7 HardHit%
Thursday, May 13 (12:20 p.m. EST/10:20 a.m. MST): Ross Stripling vs. Charlie Morton
Stripling: Four starts, 16⅓ innings, 6.61 ERA/5.19 xERA/4.88 xFIP, 21.5 K%, 8.9 BB%, .269 xBA Against, 41.8 HardHit%
Morton: Seven starts, 34⅓ innings, 4.98 ERA/3.86 xERA/3.58 xFIP, 26.5 K%, 9.3 BB%, .237 xBA Against, 36.2 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 16-18
Run differential: -12 (159 runs scored, 171 runs allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 3-0 for the Jays
Record since the last series vs. the Blue Jays: 5-1
Last 10 games: 5-5
When last we saw Atlanta, they were getting swept at the hands of the Jays, whose bats came alive in Dunedin. Since then, Atlanta has responded with a sweep of the fifth-place Washington Nationals, and a series win against the Philadelphia Phillies. Their only loss over that stretch was a 12-2 thumping at the hands of the Phillies in which Charlie Morton only went two-thirds of an inning and gave up six unearned runs.
Their offence this season has, of course, been spearheaded by Ronald Acuña Jr., who has had to carry a lot of the weight laid on him by Freddie Freeman’s slower start to the season, a nasty injury to Travis d’Arnaud suffered in the series against the Jays, and an atrocious early season for Marcell Ozuna. Thankfully for Atlanta, Acuña hasn’t been the only bat working, as Austin Riley has had a great start to the season, Ozzie Albies has been steady, and the likes of now-injured outfielder Guillermo Heredia, pinch-hitter extraordinaire Pablo Sandoval, and of all people, rookie pitcher Huascar Ynoa, who has two home runs on the year, including a grand slam against the Nationals.
Speaking of pitchers, Calgary-born Mike Soroka remains on the IL, Max Fried has been hurt and bad to start the year, and Drew Smyly has looked terrible, losing whatever devil magic the Giants had worked on him in 2020. On the other hand, Charlie Morton has been solid ever, even if the ERA doesn’t show it. Ian Anderson and Ynoa, both of whom the Jays will thankfully miss in this series, have been their strongest starting pitchers. Despite the best efforts of a solid back end of Will Smith, A.J. Minter, and Tyler Matzek, the bullpen hasn’t been great, with Luke Jackson’s 1.38 ERA belying some shitty peripherals. Nate Jones has looked absolutely terrible despite his 3.48 ERA, striking out only 14 percent of hitters while walking a horrifying 20 percent (a number that, for the record, Robbie Ray has never equalled).
It’s still very, very early, but it’s looking like it’s gonna be a dogfight in the NL East. Atlanta’s going to need to fire all cylinders if they want to overtake the Mets and put some distance between themselves and the Phillies. Shame then, about their upcoming sweep at the hands of the Jays (don’t @ me). You hate to see it.
Best Players Thus Far:
Ronald Acuña Jr., Right Field, .305/.404/.636, 175 wRC+
Huascar Ynoa, Starting Pitcher, 2.23 ERA/4.34 xERA, 28.4 K%, 5.8 BB%
Ian Anderson, Starting Pitcher, 3.46 ERA/4.55 xERA, 26.4 K%, 10.4 BB%
Ozzie Albies, Second Base, .229/.311/.475, 111 wRC+
Austin Riley, Third Base, .290/.398/.402, 123 wRC+
Key Under-Performers:
Freddie Freeman, First Base, .217/.352/.467, 117 wRC+
Marcell Ozuna, Left Field, .201/.277/.313, 66 wRC+
Max Fried, Starting Pitcher, 8.44 ERA/5.66 xERA, 24.1 K%, 7.2 BB%