Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays (44-40) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (51-36)
Over that stretch from the Jays’ first series in Baltimore against the Orioles up to the most recent series in Baltimore against the Orioles, Toronto has gone 11-6 against the Orioles, Marlins, Orioles again, Mariners, Rays, and Orioles yet again. There have still been some frustrating losses, but I don’t think anyone could argue that the record itself has been more or less as good as could be reasonably expected, give or take a win.
All that’s left now before a well-deserved All-Star break is a three-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays in St. Petersburg, Florida, the Jays’ first time back in Pinellas County since getting swept in four games by the Rays in Dunedin in late May. God help us all.
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BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Bo Bichette (5) 9 plate appearances, .500/.556/.875, 7 total bases, 3 Weighted Runs Created, 0.18 WPA, 0.24 WPA/LI
Bo’s defensive shortcomings were certainly exposed during the shortened series against the Orioles, but he made up for it by mashing the shit out of the ball. For quick salivary aid, check out his stats over the first 159 games of his career.
Another fun fact: There is a sabermetric stat developed by Bill James called Power-Speed Number (PSN) that measures a player’s ability to both hit home runs and steal bases. I like this stat, and not just because I like power-speed guys in general. Guys who have power obviously provide value through that avenue, but if they’re getting the opportunity to steal a lot of bases, that means they’re getting on base. It also means they likely have the speed to help them out in other situations, such as beating out infield singles.
That’s admittedly extrapolation on my part. It’s not an all-encompassing stat like Weighted Runs Created Plus, which is probably still the best overall measure of offensive value (nobody should argue that Bo is a better hitter than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. because of his PSN), but it’s still very neat.
Anyways, here are the 2021 MLB leaders in PSN, as of July 8:
Honourable Mentions: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Pitcher: Hyun Jin Ryu (6) 5 innings, 21 batters faced, 5 hits, 1 earned run, 7 strikeouts, 1 walk, 1.57 FIP, 60 Game Score v2, 0.17 WPA, 0.08 WPA/LI
After a string of disappointing starts, Hyun Jin Ryu finally put it together against the Orioles, getting more strikeouts than innings pitched for the first time since his May 28 start against Cleveland, in which he was buffeted by a near-biblical storm.
Does his sudden success have something to do with his preferred catcher Danny Jansen returning from the IL? Seems like more correlation than causation to me, but maybe!
With Steven Matz pitching well until the fifth when he promptly got blown up, the honourable mentions go to relievers. Jays relief pitchers not named Trent Thornton pitched well this series for a change. Trevor Richards looked great in his Blue Jays debut, and Jacob Barnes joins him in the honourable mentions as he continues to exceed expectations.
Honourable Mentions: Trevor Richards, Jacob Barnes
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 9
Bo Bichette- 5
Marcus Semien- 5
George Springer- 2
Joe Panik- 2 (now on the Miami Marlins)
Randal Grichuk- 2
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
Teoscar Hernández- 1
Pitchers:
Hyun Jin Ryu- 6
Robbie Ray- 6
Alek Manoah- 4
Steven Matz- 4
Ross Stripling- 3
Julian Merryweather- 2 (60-day IL)
Anthony Kay- 1
Anthony Castro- 1 (sent down to Triple-A)
Ryan Borucki- 1 (10-day IL)
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Friday, July 9 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Alek Manoah vs. Shane McClanahan
Manoah: Seven starts, 36 ⅔ innings, 2.70 ERA/4.44 FIP/4.03 xFIP, 29.1 K%, 8.1 BB%, .188 xBA Against, 33 HardHit%
McClanahan: 12 starts, 56 innings, 4.18 ERA/3.87 FIP/3.17 xFIP, 28.3 K%, 7.7 BB%, .237 BA Against/.233 xBA Against, 39.6 HardHit%
Saturday, July 9 (1 p.m. EST/11 a.m. MST): Ross Stripling vs. Ryan Yarbrough
Stripling: 14 games (13 starts), 4.06 ERA/4.47 FIP/4.29 xFIP, 24.5 K%, 7.0 BB%, .236 BA Against/.239 xBA Against, 40.6 HardHit%
Yarbrough: 17 games (12 starts), 4.34 ERA/4.25 FIP/4.21 xFIP, 19.6 K%, 3.9 BB%, .256 BA Against/.259 xBA Against, 27 HardHit%.
Sunday, July 10 (1 p.m. EST/11 a.m. MST): Robbie Ray vs. Rich Hill
Ray: 16 starts, 3.36 ERA/4.21 FIP/3.23 xFIP, 31.1 K%, 6.3 BB%, .226 BA Against/.240 xBA Against, 48.5 HardHit%.
Hill: 17 starts, 3.65 ERA/4.52 FIP/4.39 xFIP, 24.4 K%, 8.9 BB%, .210 BA Against/.243 xBA Against, 36.6 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 51-36
Run differential: +78 (427 Runs, 349 Runs Allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 5-4
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 3-0
Last 10 games: 5-5
Side note, but you can’t tell me that those throwback Devil Rays jerseys from the picture above don’t look way better than the Rays’ standard uniforms.
The Rays have carried on Rays-ing throughout this 2021 season, trading blows with the Boston Red Sox atop the AL East. They suffered a significant blow in the form of an elbow injury to Tyler Glasnow that will keep him out until the latter stages of the season. While their other starting pitchers (Rich Hill, Ryan Yarbrough, Shane McClanahan, Michael Wacha, Josh Fleming, and occasionally Luis Patiño) have done well in his absence, the Rays could use him back and healthy. They’ve gone 8-11 since he was placed on the IL (as opposed to 43-25 before).
The Rays have had the third-best relief corps in baseball in both FIP and xFIP. Collin McHugh, Diego Castillo, Andrew Kittredge, Pete Fairbanks, Jeffrey Springs, the injured Ryan Thompson, and trade acquisitions Matt Wisler and J.P. Feyereisen (who was acquired from Milwaukee in the trade that sent Willy Adames and now-Blue Jay Trevor Richards to the Brewers.
Tampa Bay has pulled their usual antics with regards to the offence, using platoons and a generally fluid lineup to wring good seasons out of Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, and Ji-Man Choi. Of particular note is catcher Mike Zunino, who rode the Three True Outcomes all the way to an All-Star Game nod.
The Rays have nonetheless been about average in MLB in terms of overall production (101 wRC+), and you can point to a few culprits with regards to why. Yandy Díaz’s lowered contact rate over the past couple of years has coincided with a drastic collapse of his power numbers, leaving him a slightly above league average hitter. Randy Arozarena has been fine, but not the prodigious force of nature we saw in the 2020 postseason, while Kevin Kiermaier has been abysmal with the bat.
Help may be on the way in the form of baseball’s Number One Prospect, 20-year-old shortstop Wander Franco. I’m no prospect evaluator, but for an idea of how highly regarded this kid is, I will defer to these excerpts from Eric Longenhagen’s overview of the Rays’ system:
“Last year Franco became the first 80 FV prospect of the Future Value era at FanGraphs, the best prospect on the planet, and the best I’ve evaluated during my tenure here at the site. Recall Franco’s statistical track record, which is better than [Vladimir Guerrero Jr.]’s was at the same age and levels.”
“Franco’s short levers and lightning-quick wrists make it nearly impossible to beat him with velocity, especially on the inner half. He is also especially adept at spoiling well-located back-foot breaking balls, and if you miss with one and catch even part of the zone, he can drop the bat head and yank it out to his pull side. Work away from him and he’ll extend his arms and pepper the opposite field gap with line drives, then use his speed to turn lots of those into doubles. He has impressive raw juice in BP, which he shows off because he makes such consistent contact […] And yet he’s still slugging like a physically mature Quad-A hitter. How about the TrackMan data? Franco’s exit velos and hard hit rate (which are on The Board) are both above the big league average, which is ridiculous for a teenager who’s playing against competition four and a half years older than he is.”
“Franco has been the best player his age on the planet since he was 14 years old. He looks like, and has performed like, a generational talent and annual MVP contender.”
What the shit. The Rays are aggravating enough without generational superstars, and they just… Find one to slot in? Fuck me, man.
In his first 13 games at the big league level, Franco has yet to light the world on fire, but given the fact that he’s only 20 years old, I think he can be forgiven. It’s not like the Jays don’t also have recent experience with an extremely young highly-touted prospect not quite lighting the world on fire for a while upon getting called up.
Best Players Thus Far:
Mike Zunino, Catcher, .193/.279/.519, 118 wRC+
Tyler Glasnow (10-day IL), Starting Pitcher, 2.66 ERA/2.70 xFIP, 36.2 K%, 7.9 BB%
Joey Wendle, Third Base, .276/.338/.457, 119 wRC+
Brandon Lowe, Second Base, .206/.314/.440, 110 wRC+
Austin Meadows, Designated Hitter/Left Field, .243/.335/.485, 126 wRC+
Key Under-Performers:
Mike Brosseau, Utility Infield, .182/.265/.322, 67 wRC+
Kevin Kiermaier, Center Field, .239/.292/.335, 77 wRC+
Yandy Díaz, First Base/Third Base, .248/.371/.328, 106 wRC+