Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays (49-46) vs. Boston Red Sox (61-39)
I am this close to posting the JokerJay. The Jayker, if you will. Pray you don’t find out what that is.
The Trade Deadline is coming up this Friday, and given how the Jays have played recently, one could probably be forgiven for wondering whether or not this ream should be buyers or sellers.
Mind you, they shouldn’t wonder this for very long, because they should absolutely be buyers, but it hasn’t really been happy goings for the Toronto Blue Jays the last week, aside from a drubbing of the New York Mets on Saturday. But while a spot in the postseason is in reach (and it still is, regardless of what some might say), the front office would be doing a massive disservice to this team by not providing them with support, even if that support is aimed towards contending in future years as opposed to this year to an equal or superiour extent. To say nothing of the disastrous effect it would have on the all-important vibes among the team and fanbase to effectively give up on this team and sell high on two of their best players in Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray (who can be saddled with a qualifying offer in the offseason anyways, netting us either those players back (which, I mean, yes please!) or draft picks) right before returning to Canada.
Kaitlyn McGrath sums it up better here (paywall), but flipping the switch from buying to selling immediately would be a big mistake. Yes, the front office had already given the indication that this year wasn’t ever meant to be the first year of the serious championship window. No, an Anthopoulos-esque blowing up of the farm system is probably not in order. Yes, avoiding rentals in favour of players that will actually figure into the Blue Jays’ championship contention over the coming years is absolutely the way to go. But no, being overly reactionary and selling anybody not on the books after this season is absolutely bending the stick too far the other way.
Anyways, trade for Joey Gallo, Ian Kennedy, and Kyle Gibson. Do it cowards. DO IT.
Before we get into the upcoming four-game series against the Boston Red Sox, a team that could not fuck the fuck off soon enough, humour me as I plead for engagement. If you like what Jayslam is doing, please consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or an enemy! I’m happy with either.
Likewise, if you’ve been enjoying Jayslam, want to see more of it, or want to support its continued existence, consider getting a paid subscription! Paid ones get you access to exclusive posts such as the podcast portions my pre-season predictions (which are, as always, not looking so good), as well as to the comments section.
BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Bo Bichette (6) 14 plate appearances, .455/.571/.727, 8 total bases, 4 Weighted Runs Created, 0.26 Win Probability Added, 0.33 WPA/LI
Boy, Saturday was fun.
Honourable Mentions: Teoscar Hernández, Marcus Semien
Pitcher: Ross Stripling (4), 5 innings, 18 batters faced, 5 hits, 1 earned run, 6 strikeouts, 0 walks, 0.75 FIP, 0.10 Win Probability Added, 0.12 WPA/LI
Some pretty solid pitching going for the Jays in the past series, with Matz and Stripling (who is currently in line to start the first game in Toronto, unless Alek Manoah comes back healthy soon to shake the rotation order up a bit) looking solid and Ryu only being undone by some unlucky contact. Shame about Borucki completely losing it on Sunday though.
Honourable Mentions: Hyun Jin Ryu, Steven Matz
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 11
Bo Bichette- 6
Marcus Semien- 5
George Springer- 3
Joe Panik- 2 (now on the Miami Marlins)
Randal Grichuk- 2
Santiago Espinal- 1
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
Teoscar Hernández- 1
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 8
Hyun Jin Ryu- 6
Ross Stripling- 4
Alek Manoah- 4 (10-day IL)
Steven Matz- 4
Julian Merryweather- 2 (60-day IL)
Trevor Richards- 1
Anthony Kay- 1
Anthony Castro- 1 (sent down to Triple-A)
Ryan Borucki- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Monday, July 26 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Thomas Hatch vs. Nick Pivetta
Hatch (Triple-A): Eight games, 29 ⅓ innings, 2.15 ERA/4.46 FIP/4.88 xFIP, 24.2 K%, 10.0 BB%, .184 BA Against
Pivetta: 19 games, 103 innings, 4.37 ERA/4.24 FIP/4.39 xFIP, 26.7 K%, 10.5 BB%, .231 BA Against/.218 xBA Against, 40.4 HardHit%
Tuesday, July 27 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Robbie Ray vs. Garrett Richards
Ray: 19 games, 112 ⅓ innings, 3.12 ERA/4.07 FIP/3.28 xFIP, 31.3 K%, 6.2 BB%, .215 BA Against/.222 xBA Against, 46.8 HardHit%
Richards: 19 games, 97 ⅓ innings, 4.99 ERA/4.94 FIP/4.77 xFIP, 17.6 K%, 9.9 BB%, .292 BA Against/.288 xBA Against, 50.6 HardHit%
Wednesday, July 28 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Steven Matz vs. Tanner Houck
Matz: 17 games, 87 innings, 4.34 ERA/4.06 FIP/3.77 xFIP, 23.8 K%, 6.4 BB%, .264 BA Against/.249 xBA Against, 36.3 HardHit%
Houck: Five games (three starts), 18 innings, 2.50 ERA/1.99 FIP/2.56 xFIP, 31.1 K%, 5.4 BB%, .243 BA Against/.214 xBA Against, 36.2 HardHit%
Thursday, July 29 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Hyun Jin Ryu vs. Eduardo Rodríguez
Ryu: 19 games, 110 innings, 3.44 ERA/3.88 FIP/3.97 xFIP, 19.9 K%, 5.6 BB%, .248 BA Against/.260 xBA Against, 41.3 HardHit%
Rodríguez: 19 games, 96 ⅓ innings, 5.23 ERA/3.51 FIP/3.34 xFIP, 27.4 K%, 5.8 BB%, .275 BA Against/.237 xBA Against, 35.5 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 57-43
Run differential: +68 (509 Runs, 441 Runs Allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 7-4
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 3-1
Last 10 games: 6-4
No fucking way man, we just did this last week and everything basically still applies. Please for the love of god, have mercy on me, I’m sick of talking about this fucking team.
Best Players Thus Far:
Rafael Devers, Third Base, .282/.356/.580, 146 wRC+
Xander Bogaerts, Shortstop, .311/.374/.524, 141 wRC+
Nathan Eovaldi, Starting Pitcher, 3.49 ERA/3.58 xFIP, 23.6 K%, 4.3 BB%
J.D. Martinez, Designated Hitter, .302/.373/.565, 149 wRC+
Enrique Hernández, Super Utility, .244/.323/.466, 111 wRC+
Key Under-Performers:
Marwin González (10-day IL), Super Utility, .205/.286/.297, 61 wRC+
Bobby Dalbec, First Base, .218/.259/.397, 73 wRC+
Garrett Richards, Starting Pitcher, 4.99 ERA/4.77 xFIP, 17.6 K%, 9.9 BB%