Series Preview: Seattle Mariners (41-38) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (40-36)
This preview was written before the Jays traded Joe Panik and minor leaguer Andrew McInvale for Adam Cimber and Corey Dickerson. A post focused on that trade will be coming out later today,
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BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (9) 19 plate appearances, .373/.474/1.000, 16 total bases, 7 Weighted Runs Created, 0.13 WPA, 0.49 WPA/LI
It’s not exactly a bad feeling to make a habit of saying “yeah, anybody could’ve deserved it, but Vladdy was just too good” every week.
Also, George Springer plays for the Toronto Blue Jays.
Honourable Mentions: Teoscar Hernández, George Springer
Pitcher: Alek Manoah (3) 6 innings, 24 batters faced, 4 hits, 0 earned runs, 6 strikeouts, 2 walks, 2.15 FIP, 67 Game Score v2, 0.25 WPA, 0.18 WPA/LI
At least Alek Manoah got some variety of karmic revenge against the Orioles, dominating them not one week after Baltimore took issue with Manoah’s (clearly unintentional) hitting of Maikel Franco. He dropped his appeal of the resulting suspension but did so at such a time that he will not actually have to miss a turn in the rotation.
Anthony Kay and Ross Stripling also had nice outings while the bullpen had a few standout performers in Anthony Castro, Jordan Romano, and Tim Mayza. Hyun Jin Ryu also had an excellent start, taking a 12-0 lead into the seventh inning. In the seventh, he started getting knocked around, with Pat Tabler speculating that he may have been tinkering with his changeup.
Ryu only struck out three batters, which obviously isn’t a whole lot, but that was enough to pass Byung Hyun Kim for second place all-time among Korean Major League Baseball pitchers.
I assumed that the most strikeouts by a Korean pitcher would be Chan Ho Park, the first-ever Korean to play in Major League Baseball, paving the way for Ryu, Byung Hyun Kim, Kwang Hyun Kim, Shin-Soo Choo, Ji Man Choi, Seung Hwan Oh, Hyun Soo Kim, and the legendary Dae Sung Koo, among others.
A dependable mainstay of the Los Angeles Dodgers teams of the late 90s and early 2000s, Park promptly became awful the second he signed with the Texas Rangers. Despite that, he kicked around MLB until 2010, after which he left for NPB’s Orix Buffaloes in Japan, before finishing up his career with the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles in his home country.
I was right about assuming he was the Korean strikeout king. What I was wrong in assuming was that Ryu was even close to catching up with Park.
Never underestimate the sheer power of career longevity.
Honourable Mentions: Anthony Kay, Hyun Jin Ryu
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 9
Marcus Semien- 4
Bo Bichette- 4
Joe Panik- 2
Randal Grichuk- 2
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
Teoscar Hernández- 1
George Springer- 1
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 6
Hyun Jin Ryu- 5
Steven Matz- 4
Alek Manoah- 3
Ross Stripling- 3
Julian Merryweather- 2
Anthony Castro- 1
Ryan Borucki- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Tuesday, June 29 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Chris Flexen vs. Robbie Ray
Flexen: 13 starts, 74 ⅓ innings, 3.87 ERA/3.81 FIP/4.20 xFIP, 16.6 K%, 4.7 BB%, .268 xBA Against, 42.8 HardHit%
Ray: 14 starts, 80 ⅔ innings, 3.35 ERA/4.31 FIP/3.15 xFIP, 31 K%, 6.3 BB%, .244 xBA Against, 48.3 HardHit%
Wednesday, June 30 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Justus Sheffield vs. Steven Matz (presumptive)
Sheffield: 13 starts, 68 innings, 5.69 ERA/5.50 FIP/4.80 xFIP, 17.2 K%, 9.2 BB%, .291 xBA Against, 42.7 HardHit%
Matz: 13 starts, 69 ⅔ innings, 4.26 ERA/3.79 FIP/3.68 xFIP, 24.8 K%, 7.0 BB%, .239 xBA Against, 39.3 HardHit%
Thursday, July 1 (1 p.m. EST/11 a.m. MST): Yusei Kikuchi vs. Hyun Jin Ryu
Kikuchi: 14 starts, 86 ⅓ innings, 3.34 ERA/4.32 FIP/3.47 xFIP, 25.5 K%, 8.8 BB%, .241 xBA Against, 41.3 HardHit%
Ryu: 15 starts, 89 ⅔ innings, 3.41 ERA/3.92 FIP/3.86 xFIP, 20.0 K%, 5.3 BB%, .257 xBA Against, 38.7 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 35-44
Run differential: -43 (321 Runs, 364 Runs Allowed)
Last 10 games: 7-3
Surprising no one, the Seattle Mariners are a bizarre team. They don’t do anything particularly well, and their run differential has been fairly poor. And yet, here they are at third place in the AL West with a winning record, coming into Buffalo riding a nice little wave.
Despite poor seasons thus far from Marco Gonzales and Justus Sheffield, the rotation has overcome it somewhat thanks to solid seasons from Chris Flexen in his return from Korea, Justin Dunn, rookie Logan Gilbert, and Yusei Kikuchi, who has seemingly finally put things together after a couple seasons of good peripherals but bad ERAs.
The bullpen has seen an excellent performance on the year from former Jay Kendall Graveman and Mets castoff Paul Sewald. J.T. Chargois, Anthony Misiewicz, and Drew Steckenrider have all been solid, as has comeback story Héctor Santiago, who has found himself in a truly bizarre situation, as he has become the first pitcher ejected under the new substance rule for what he and manager Scott Servais has insisted was merely rosin. Those relievers have made up for some erratic and/or bad seasons from the likes of Keynan Middleton, Rafael Montero, Robert Dugger, and Will Vest.
As for the offence, they, uh, don’t have much. Kyle Lewis and Kyle Seager have both underperformed while Dylan Moore has been straight-up bad. Rookie Jarred Kelenic was terrible in his brief sojourn in the big leagues, and the likes of Tom Murphy, Luis Torrens, Jake Bauers, and Taylor Trammell haven’t done much of anything. J.P. Crawford has been legitimately good, certainly hitting better than during his time with the Phillies, but most of his value comes from his excellent defence.
The Mariners’ best hitters have been designated hitter Ty France and outfielder Mitch Haniger (who missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 with an injury that I quite frankly do not have the stomach to discuss). They and Crawford are the only qualified hitters on the Mariners with wRC+ over 110, though outfielder Jake Fraley has been terrific in more limited playing time. With that said, for the Jays to have success against Seattle, they’ll need to minimize the damage from Crawford, France, Haniger, and Fraley while jumping on the Mariners’ solid but beatable starting pitching. There’s no reason to believe that the surging Blue Jays wouldn’t be able to do just that. Unless the game is close in extra innings, in which case boy oh boy, I hope Adam Cimber goes through the intake process quickly.
Best Players Thus Far:
Yusei Kikuchi, Starting Pitcher, 3.34 ERA/3.47 xFIP, 25.5 K%, 8.8 BB%
J.P. Crawford, Shortstop, .281/.340/.399, 110 wRC+
Kendall Graveman, Relief Pitcher, 1.19 ERA/3.25 xFIP, 25.9 K%, 4.9 BB%
Ty France, Designated Hitter/Second Base, .257/.348/.414, 117 wRC+
Mitch Haniger, Right Field, .255/.300/.490, 118 wRC+
Key Under-Performers:
Taylor Trammell, Centre Field/Left Field, .168/.265/.378, 83 wRC+
Dylan Moore, Second Base/Outfield, .190/.289/.368, 88 wRC+
Marco Gonzales, Starting Pitcher, 5.10 ERA/4.75 xFIP, 20.8 K%, 8.9 BB%