Series Preview: Houston Astros (31-25) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (29-25)
Never a dull moment, eh?
The Jays’ first series of the season at Sahlen Field in Buffalo went about as well as you could reasonably expect. On Tuesday, the Blue Jays got the better of Sandy Alcántara thanks to a 3-run bomb off the bat of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto only had to ride another excellent Robbie Ray start, and a Lourdes Gurriel Jr. solo hot, to boot, to overcome a shaky ninth from Jordan Romano in which he walked the bases loaded, and won the first game 5-1.
Game 2 on Wednesday featured an Alek Manoah start, though it didn’t go as smoothly as the young pitcher’s debut, as he gave up three home runs to Corey Dickerson, Jazz Chisholm, and Jesús Aguilar and couldn’t make it out of the fourth. Aside from Randal Grichuk, who hit a pair of solo home runs, the Jays were unable to figure out Pablo López and his ridiculous changeup.
The Blue Jays went into the ninth down 5-3 with Reese McGuire leading off and a strong opposing reliever in Yimi García on the mound. McGuire poked a ball into centre for a single, and Marcus Semien followed up with another base hit. Bo Bichette, who had a rough game at the plate until this point, ripped a high pitch into right field for a game-tying triple.
Radiating fear under his stodgy mask, Marlins manager Don Mattingly intentionally walked Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Teoscar Hernández to bring up Grichuk who promptly grounded into a forceout. One double play away from the fucking extra inning rule, Joe Panik lofted a very professional sacrifice fly into center field, more than deep enough to score Vladdy and give the Jays the 6-5 victory, and a two-game sweep of the Marlins.
The Jays will now welcome the Houston Astros for a three-game series against the only Major League Baseball team in Texas, and a damn good one at that. Before getting into it, humour me as I plead for engagement. If you like what Jayslam is doing, please consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or an enemy! I’m happy with either, really.
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BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (6) 9 plate appearances, .625/.667/1.375, 5 Weighted Runs Created, 0.22 WPA/LI
Ho-hum, just another series where Vladimir Guerrero Jr. curb stomps pitchers with the greatest of ease. It’s basically routine at this point.
Just kidding, it’s still unbelievably hype. While Vladdy was an easy pick, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Marcus Semien, and Randal Grichuk all had a very solid series, with Grichuk just missing out on an honourable mention dspite being the only Jay to figure out Pablo López.
Honourable Mentions: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Marcus Semien
Pitcher: Robbie Ray (5) 6 innings, 24 batters faced, 6 hits, 2 earned runs, 9 strikeouts, 2 walks, 1.13 FIP, 65 Game Score v2, 0.09 WPA/LI
Robbie Ray turned in yet another solid start, despite walking a couple guys (though while I’m a Robbie Ray believer, I’ll still happily take any start where he walks less than three guys). He also didn’t give up a home run, his first time evading the dinger since his second start of the season.
The bullpen was also terrific, minus some shaky, albeit relatively harmless appearances from Jordan Romano, Trent Thornton, and Anthony Castro. Rafael Dolis struck out the side in his appearance, while Tim Mayza pitched in both games, and did so extremely well. I’d be remiss not to mention Joel Payamps, who pitched two innings of relief and kept the Jays in the game after Alek Manoah’s early exit.
Honourable Mentions: Rafael Dolis, Tim Mayza
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 6
Bo Bichette- 3
Marcus Semien- 3
Randal Grichuk- 2
Joe Panik- 1
Teoscar Hernández- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
George Springer- 1
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 5
Hyun Jin Ryu- 4
Steven Matz- 4
Julian Merryweather- 2
Alek Manoah- 1
Anthony Castro- 1
Ryan Borucki- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Friday, June 4 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Zack Greinke vs. Hyun Jin Ryu
Greinke: Twelve starts, 73 ⅔ innings, 3.67 ERA/3.83 FIP/4.02 xFIP, 19.4 K%, 5.1 BB%, .250 xBA Against, 29.4 HardHit%
Ryu: Ten starts, 58 ⅓ innings, 2.62 ERA/2.89 FIP/3.07 xFIP, 25 K%, 3.4 BB%, .242 xBA Against, 34.3 HardHit%
Saturday, June 5 (3 p.m. EST/1 p.m. MST): José Urquidy vs. Ross Stripling
Urquidy: Nine starts, 50 ⅔ innings, 3.02 ERA/3.67 FIP/4.38 xFIP, 21.1 K%, 5.0 BB%, .229 xBA Against, 32.9 HardHit%
Stripling: Eight games (seven starts), 37 innings, 5.11 ERA/4.81 FIP/4.24 xFIP, 24.4 K%, 6.9 BB%, .258 xBA Against, 43.1 HardHit%
Sunday, June 5 (1 p.m. EST/11 a.m. MST): Luis García vs. Steven Matz
García: Eleven games (nine starts), 53 innings, 2.72 ERA/3.96 FIP/4.12 xFIP, 28.2 K%, 8.0 BB%, .210 xBA Against, 39.1 HardHit%
Matz: Eleven starts, 59 ⅔ innings, 4.22 ERA/3.47 FIP/3.42 xFIP, 25.2 K%, 5.9 BB%, .246 xBA Against, 39.8 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 34-22
Run differential: +58 (292 Runs Scored, 234 Runs Allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 2-1
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 13-9
Last 10 games: 5-5
According to wRC+, the Houston Astros have been the best offensive team in baseball this year, and it’s easy to see why when you go down their lineup.
Even with Michael Brantley out with an injury, Myles Straw being bad, Martín Maldonado hitting like a pitcher, and whatever the fuck a Chas McCormick is hitting seventh, Altuve-Correa-Bregman-Álvarez-The Lesser Gurriel Brother-Tucker is a downright terrifying Top 6.
Jake Odorizzi’s season and Lance McCullers’ injury aside, the Astros have a nice rotation, to the point where Cristian Javier, who has put together a nice season of his own, has been shifted to the bullpen. Granted, it was for Jake Odorizzi, who has been very, very bad, but still. Wily veteran and baseball treasure Zack Greinke has been solid, rookie Luis García has been excellent, José Urquidy has continued to be quietly solid, while Framber Valdez, a sleeper Cy Young candidate of mine at the beginning of the year before his injury, has turned in a couple of excellent starts in his return from the IL.
Shame about their bullpen though. Ryan Pressly and Brooks Raley have been excellent, and Brandon Bielak has been fine, but that’s as far as it goes. Joe Smith and the now-demoted Andre Scrubb have been terrible, and the likes of Ryne Stanek, and the injured Bryan Abreu and Kent Emanuel have been ERA merchants. If the Jays can keep pace with Houston’s offense, a feat they are absolutely capable of, this is a relief corps that can be punished. Mind you, I could say the same thing the other way around, so, uh, we’ll see?
Best Players Thus Far:
Alex Bregman, Third Base, .289/.381/.437, 135 wRC+
Carlos Correa, Shortstop, .274/.361/.458, 133 wRC+
Kyle Tucker, Right Field, .256/.323/.487, 126 wRC+
José Altuve, Second Base, .296/.365/.457, 133 wRC+
Luis García, Starting Pitcher, 2.89 ERA/4.12 xFIP, 28.2 K%, 8.0 BB%
Key Under-Performers:
Jake Odorizzi, Starting Pitcher, 7.16 ERA/4.56 xFIP, 23.6 K%, 9.7 BB%
Martín Maldonado, Catcher, .156/.240/.259, 48 wRC+
Myles Straw, Center Field, .230/.299/.273, 70 wRC+