Series Preview- Fuck Stuart Sternberg Edition: Toronto Blue Jays (8-10) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (10-9)
(Plus: Jeremy Beasley Hype-Posting)
No series recap today either, though I could almost copy and paste what I said last week: The offence is still inconsistent (though it’s also coming around? Maybe?), and the pitching has been solid, though the series in Boston leaves a better taste in the mouth than the Kansas City series, if only because it was a two-game split, despite Hyun Jin Ryu not having his best stuff in the first game.
With their road trip nearly at an end, the Jays return to Pinellas County for a three-game series at Tropicana Field, home of the Tampa Bay Rays. If you’re a fan of an AL East team, the second half of that sentence should’ve filled you with palpable, Lovecraftian dread.
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Now it’s time to award the Best Bird awards, one of which had a few good options to choose from, while the other didn’t provide a lot of compelling options.
BEST BIRDS
Hitter:Bo Bichette (2) 9 plate appearances, .500/.556/.875, 300 wRC+, 0.16 WPA
Despite his continued defensive struggles, I chose Bo over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. because of his slightly greater offensive production, as well as his home run in the first game, which is a cute story in and of itself.
Honourable mentions: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Randal Grichuk
Pitcher: Ryan Borucki (1) 2 innings, 7 batters faced, 1 hit, 2 strikeouts, 1 walk, 3.46 xFIP, 0.17 WPA
This was Hyun Jin Ryu’s series to take, but he didn’t have his good stuff on Tuesday and got knocked around by the potent Red Sox offence. I ended up giving it to Borucki, who got the Jays through two late innings on Wednesday, with the highlights being strikeouts of Christian Vázquez and Bobby Dalbec in the sixth, and an inning-ending double play from Alex Verdugo in the seventh.
Honourable mentions: Trent Thornton, Anthony Castro
ROSTER/INJURY UPDATES
Back when he was in the Angels’ system, Beasley was included in the team’s Fangraphs 2019 Prospect list in the “other prospects of note” section, where Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel wrote the following about him.
Beasley has the best long-term prognosis as a potential fifth starter. His splitter is plus, the rest of his stuff average.
In his ⅓ innings pitched at the big league level last year, Beasley got knocked around by, of all teams, the Colorado Rockies. But he only cost some cash, and the Jays have had good luck so far this year with DFA acquisitions originally from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Pitching depth! You love to see it!
On the other hand, Thomas Hatch being moved to the 60-day IL is clearly not good. Not much more to say about it other than it sucks and I hope he comes back strong as soon as is healthily possible.
In better injury-related news: Reinforcements appear to be (finally) underway!
Assuming he’s getting four days off between starts, that would put him in line to start on Monday, May 3, that being the first game of a road series against the Oakland Athletics. Don’t necessarily trust my prognosis, because I am the furthest thing from a doctor, but we do seem to be getting closer and closer to seeing Nate Pearson take the mound once again.
GEORGE, TAKE MY QUAD, PLEASE.
Bullpen help is on its way, as Tyler Chatwood and Jordan Romano are both expected to be back at some point during the Rays series. Teoscar Hernández should get back to baseball activities soon, so he might be ready for the homestand against the Nationals. Ditto George Springer. Ross Stripling is throwing off a mound, but Julian Merryweather is going to be shut down for a few weeks as he recovers from an oblique injury. David Phelps also made his return to the mound on Wednesday, pitching a shaky but ultimately harmless ⅔ of an inning on Wednesday.
Some of it is taking longer than we’d like, but slowly but surely, help is on the way.
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
I’d like to point out that I included Anthony Kay as a presumptive starter for the last series and he didn’t even make an appearance. My powers of deduction are truly beyond comprehension.
Friday, April 23 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Steven Matz vs. Tyler Glasnow
Matz: Three starts, 18 ⅓ innings, 1.47 ERA/2.53 xERA/3.59 xFIP, 26.5 K%, 8.8 BB%, .215 xBA Against, 37.2 HardHit%
Glasnow: Four starts, 24 ⅔ innings, 0.73 ERA/1.25 xERA/2.36 xFIP, 40 K%, 7.8 BB%, .138 xBA Against, 34 HardHit%
Saturday, April 24 (6 p.m. EST/4 p.m. MST): Robbie Ray vs. Ryan Yarbrough (presumptive)
Ray: Two starts, 10 innings, 1.80 ERA/4.97 xERA/6.15 xFIP, 13.6 K%, 20.5 BB%, .254 xBA Against, 34.5 HardHit%
Yarbrough: Four games (three starts), 21 ⅔ innings, 5.40 ERA/4.56 xERA/4.37 xFIP, 15.8 K%, 4.2 BB%, .312 xBA Against, 23 HardHit%
Sunday, April 25 (1 p.m./11 a.m.): Hyun Jin Ryu vs. Josh Fleming (presumptive)
Ryu: Four starts, 24 innings, 3.00 ERA/3.24 xERA/3.25 xFIP, 21.9 K%, 2.1 BB%, .250 xBA Against, 28.8 HardHit%
Fleming: Two starts,10 ⅓ innings, 0.87 ERA/2.84 xERA/4.17 xFIP, 12.8 K%, 5.1 BB%, .215 xBA Against, 25.8 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 9-10
Run differential: -4 (94 runs scored, 98 runs allowed)
Last 10 Games: 6-4
After making it to the World Series in 2020 with their typical brand of ingenious small-market innovation and/or austerity-induced, statistically-informed dumpster diving induced by one of the worst asshole owners in baseball, the Rays suffered some key losses to their pitching in Blake Snell and Charlie Morton. This left Tyler Glasnow as the staff ace of a rotation that includes Ryan Yarbrough, Josh Fleming, and new acquisitions Chris Archer (who is currently injured), Michael Wacha, and Rich Hill.
The offence is unchanged, aside from trading for former top catching prospect Francisco Mejía. Austin Meadows, Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe and Kevin Kiermaier are the most recognizable names in a typically Rays-esque offence that has largely delivered, with utility infielder Joey Wendle (185 wRC+) being the team’s best hitter through April 23, as we all predicted.
The rotation has felt the losses of Snell and Morton though. Archer, Hill, Wacha, and Yarbrough have all been some combination of mediocre, hurt, or terrible thus far. The one big shining light in the rotation has been the hard-throwing Glasnow, who has turned himself into one of the best pitchers in baseball in April, largely off the back of his unfortunately named “slutter” pitch.
The Rays’ pitching staff has also been ravaged by injuries, with Archer, Oliver Drake, Pete Fairbanks, Collin McHugh, Cody Reed and Chaz Roe out until later this year. Yonny Chirinos, Jalen Beeks, Colin Poche and Nick Anderson (one of the best relievers in baseball in 2020) have been ruled out for the year.
It’s safe to say that the Rays’ bullpen is feeling their absence as well. Diego Castillo has been typically excellent, but their reliever corps as a whole, usually one of the best in baseball, has been one of the worst this year, with a 5.40 ERA (26th in MLB), and a 4.48 xFIP (24th). So while they’re still right in the hunt for the division (especially with the garbage Yankees stumbling out of the gate. Also it’s still fucking April), the Rays are treading water at the moment. However, since an embarrassing four-game display against the Texas Rangers, they’ve picked things up, sweeping the hapless Yankees and taking two of three from the Kansas City Royals.
The Jays, on the other hand, will once again seek to build any sort of positive momentum that they can, as they wait for George Springer and Teoscar Hernández to come back from the IL. They’ll hope to do just that by winning their first series against a non-Yankee team, but the Rays won’t make it easy for them, with Glasnow starting game one and Tropicana Field continuing to be the baseball equivalent of the Overlook Hotel.
Loved this! Great job on the recap as always.