Series Preview: Cleveland Guardians (51-51) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (54-48)
Oh yeah. That’s the stuff. More of that, please.
You literally could not have asked for a better first series back in Toronto. The opening win over the Royals was a good start, as it allowed the team’s emotional return to avoid being undercut by its actual on-field performance. It’s going to go down as a historic win in team history. For the Jays to go on and sweep the series, thanks in large parts to excellent performances from their starting pitchers, Alek Manoah and newcomer José Berríos, was just a delicious, perfectly ripe cherry on top.
And to dispatch the Royals and see the nearly equally shitty Future Cleveland Guardians stroll in afterwards? Despite the hole this team kind of dug for itself (even with four straight wins), it’s good times in Jaysville.
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BEST BIRDS
Hitter: George Springer (5) 13 plate appearances, .545/.614/1.364, 15 total bases, 6 Weighted Runs Created, 0.44 Win Probability Added, 0.37 WPA/LI
George Springer, a member of the Toronto Blue Jays, has been on fucking fire lately, and he had his best series yet, crushing the Royals underfoot with two home runs on Saturday.
Did I mention he’s a Blue Jay? Because as always, George Springer Is A Blue Jay.
Honourable Mentions: Bo Bichette, Santiago Espinal
Pitcher: Alek Manoah (5) 7 innings, 24 batters faced, 2 hits, 0 earned runs, 4 strikeouts, 1 walk, 2.44 FIP, 0.35 Win Probability Added, 0.44 WPA/LI
The Jays got some excellent pitching performances this series, with Ross Stripling looking solid on Friday and José Berríos and his disgusting, disgusting curveball looking absolutely excellent on Sunday, minus a few hit-by-pitches. The relief corps also looked solid, holding the Royals to three runs.
The best performance, however, definitely belonged to Alek Manoah. It was the easiest prediction in the world to guess that Manoah would feed off the energy of the excited Toronto fans. He didn’t have his best strikeout stuff, but when you’re limiting hard contact with the sheer movement on the pitches in the way he can, you don’t necessarily need to be striking out 10+ batters every outing.
Honourable Mentions: José Berríos, Ross Stripling
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 11
Bo Bichette- 6
George Springer- 5
Marcus Semien- 5
Joe Panik- 2 (now on the Miami Marlins)
Randal Grichuk- 2
Santiago Espinal- 1
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
Teoscar Hernández- 1
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 8
Hyun Jin Ryu- 7
Alek Manoah- 5
Ross Stripling- 4
Steven Matz- 4
Julian Merryweather- 2 (60-day IL)
Trevor Richards- 1
Anthony Kay- 1
Anthony Castro- 1 (10-day IL)
Ryan Borucki- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Monday, August 2 (3 p.m. EST/1 p.m. MST): Eli Morgan vs. Robbie Ray
Morgan: Seven games, 31 ⅓ innings, 7.47 ERA/6.19 FIP/4.42 xFIP, 24.1 K%, 3.6 BB%, .295 BA Against/.275 xBA Against, 41.2 HardHit%
Ray: 20 games, 118 ⅓ innings, 3.04 ERA/3.96 FIP/3.32 xFIP, 31.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, .215 BA Against/.225 xBA Against, 46.5 HardHit%
Tuesday, August 3 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Zach Plesac vs. Steven Matz
Plesac: 14 games, 80 ⅓ innings, 4.26 ERA/4.84 FIP/4.59 FIP, 15.9 K%, 4.9 BB%, .233 BA Against/.241 xBA Against, 41.4 HardHit%
Matz: 18 games, 90 ⅓ innings, 4.58 ERA/4.01 FIP/3.84 xFIP, 23.1 K%, 6.3 BB%, .275 BA Against/.259 xBA Against, 37.7 HardHit%
Wednesday, August 4 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): J.C. Mejía vs. Hyun Jin Ryu
Mejía: 13 games (10 starts), 45 innings, 7.60 ERA/5.60 FIP/4.38 xFIP, 21.5 K%, 9.5 BB%, .270 BA Against, 46.7 HardHit%
Ryu: 20 games, 116 innings, 3.26 ERA/3.78 FIP/3.93 xFIP, 20.0 K%, 5.3 BB%, .240 BA Against/.257 xBA Against, 40.7 HardHit%
Thursday, August 5 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Triston McKenzie vs. Ross Stripling
McKenzie: 15 games (14 starts), 63 ⅓ innings, 6.11 ERA/5.71 FIP/5.01 xFIP, 28.5 K%, 16.2 BB%, .199 BA Against/.222 xBA Against, 48 HardHit%
Stripling: 18 games (17 starts), 85 ⅓ innings, 4.75 ERA/5.04 FIP/4.43 xFIP, 23.5 K%, 7.2 BB%, .246 BA Against/.246 xBA Against, 42.3 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 48-54
Run differential: -30 (441 Runs scored, 471 Runs allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 1-2
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 23-28
Last 10 games: 4-6
When last we checked on the Cleveland Baseball Team, things were going kind of nice for them. Despite a fairly bad team by all measures except their bullpen (which is still the second-best in baseball according to xFIP, led by James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, Nick Sandlin, Bryan Shaw, Blake Parker, and Cal Quantrill) Cleveland had a good record and was holding on to second place in the AL Central, with a Wild Card spot in spitting distance.
Since then, the only real positive in Cleveland has been the fact that they changed their name to Guardians, a name that seems to be trying its hardest to elicit absolutely nothing in the way of strong feelings, which is already an improvement. Throughout their sell-off at the Deadline, they also acquired Myles Straw, a weak hitter who nonetheless provides value through his glove.
Otherwise, it’s looking rough. Cleveland traded away a chunk of its few above-average hitters, shipping away César Hernández and Jordan Luplow, leaving only the excellent Future Jay José Ramírez, designated hitter Franmil Reyes, and rookie first baseman Bobby Bradley. Otherwise, they’ve gotten minimal production from anybody, with their defensive catchers looking especially horrendous. Roberto Pérez has a 59 wRC+, while Austin Hedges has ridden his defensive ability to a higher fWAR while also putting together a vomit-inducing 26 wRC+. Since last we saw them, the Guardians have been the worst offensive team in the American League not named the Texas Rangers.
The vaunted Cleveland starting pitching factory has stuttered this year. ace Shane Bieber and the dependable Aaron Civale have both landed on the 60-Day IL. Zach Plesac, when not also hurt, has been perfectly mediocre in their stead, while a collection of Triston McKenzie, J.C. Mejía, and Sam Hentges has been horrendous. Like I mentioned in May, this is a team that needs to limit the damage and take whatever lead they can early so they can leave things in the hands of their excellent bullpen. With their offence weakened and their rotation deteriorating in the absence of Bieber and Civale, it’s getting harder and harder for them to execute that game plan.
Best Players:
José Ramírez, Third Base, .253/.344/.518, 128 wRC+
Myles Straw, Centre Field, .261/.337/.333, 94 wRC+
Cal Quantrill, Relief Pitcher, 3.40 ERA/4.82 xFIP, 16.8 K%, 8.3 BB%
Zach Plesac, Starting Pitcher, 4.26 ERA/4.59 xFIP, 15.9 K%, 4.9 BB%
Emmanuel Clase, Relief Pitcher, 1.85 ERA/2.91 xFIP, 25.4 K%, 7.6 BB%
Under-Performers:
J.C. Mejía, Starting Pitcher, 7.60 ERA/4.38 xFIP, 21.5 K%, 9.5 BB%
Triston McKenzie, Starting Pitcher, 6.11 ERA/5.01 xFIP, 28.5 K%, 16.2 BB%
Yu-Cheng Chang, Third Base/First Base, .185/.219/.300, 36 wRC+