Series Preview: Boston Red Sox (64-46) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (57-49)
Oh good, I was just saying it’s about time to dispel the idea that the Boston Red Sox are better than the Toronto Blue Jays. Just in time for laundry day, too!
Before we get into the upcoming four-game, three-day series against the Boston Red Sox, humour me as I plead for engagement. If you like what Jayslam is doing, please consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or an enemy! I’m happy with either.
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BEST BIRDS
Hitter: George Springer (6) 19 plate appearances, .444/.421/.829, 16 total bases, 6 Weighted Runs Created, 0.10 Win Probability Added, 0.25 WPA/LI
George Springer, who just about singlehandedly put the final nail in the coffin of the Cleveland Guardians’ meagre playoff hopes, is a Toronto Blue Jay. And he’s earned more than just the recurring joke at this point.
Since the All-Star break, George Springer has the fourth-best fWAR in baseball (1.4) behind only Bryce Harper, Starling Marté, and Juan Soto. If that’s been enough, he’s been the best hitter in baseball over that same span, with a 232 wRC+.
If you prefer advanced sabermetrics, of the six Best Birds I’ve awarded for the second half, four of them have gone to George Springer. He’s already passed Marcus Semien and moved into a second-place tie with Bo Bichette. Utterly ridiculous.
Speaking of Bo, he and Teoscar were the next best choices, with Bo providing practically all the offence on Thursday.
Fun fact, this tweet led to me learning that Lionel Messi won’t be returning to Barcelona.
Honourable Mentions: Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernández
Pitcher: Hyun Jin Ryu (8) 7 innings, 28 batters faced, 7 hits, 2 earned runs, 0 walks, 0.88 FIP, 0.19 Win Probability Added, 0.16 WPA/LI
While the offence sputtered out and the bullpen looked questionable at times, the starting pitching helped carry the Jays through the series, thanks to scoreless starts from Steven Matz and Ross Stripling, making solid arguments for staying in the five-man rotation once the Jays come down from six starters, as well as Robbie Ray, though he ended up having to battle subpar stuff in an off day for him.
Despite giving up two runs though, Hyun Jin Ryu, who requested the start on Tuesday (on regular rest as opposed to the extra day he prefers) to be in line to start a game against Boston, was the best of the starters. Every single one of his pitches was working to perfection, and by the time Cleveland got a couple off him, it was far too little far too late.
Honourable Mentions: Steven Matz, Ross Stripling
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 11
George Springer- 6
Bo Bichette- 6
Marcus Semien- 5
Joe Panik- 2 (now on the Miami Marlins)
Randal Grichuk- 2
Santiago Espinal- 1
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
Teoscar Hernández- 1
Pitchers:
Hyun Jin Ryu- 8
Robbie Ray- 8
Alek Manoah- 5
Ross Stripling- 4
Steven Matz- 4
Julian Merryweather- 2 (60-day IL)
Trevor Richards- 1
Anthony Kay- 1
Anthony Castro- 1 (10-day IL)
Ryan Borucki- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Friday, August 6 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Nathan Eovaldi vs. Alek Manoah
Eovaldi: 21 games, 121 ⅓ innings, 3.71 ERA/2.65 FIP/3.58 xFIP, 23.6 K%, 4.3 BB%, .255 BA Against/.245 xBA Against, 34.8 HardHit%
Manoah: 9 games, 47 ⅓ innings, 2.47 ERA/3.99 FIP/4.06 xFIP, 29.2 K%, 8.3 BB%, .174 BA Against/.186 xBA Against, 34.5 HardHit%
Saturday, August 7 (3 p.m. EST/1 p.m. MST): Nick Pivetta vs. José Berríos
Pivetta: 21 games, 112 ⅓ innings, 4.57 ERA/4.31 FIP/4.38 xFIP, 26.3 K%, 10.2 BB%, .232 BA Against/.221 xBA Against, 39.7 HardHit%
Berríos: 21 games, 127 ⅔ innings, 3.31 ERA/3.54 FIP/3.62 xFIP, 25.8 K%, 6.4 BB%, .212 BA Against/.237 xBA Against, 36.9 HardHit%
Saturday, August 7 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Tanner Houck vs. Robbie Ray
Houck: Six games (four starts), 22 innings, 2.45 ERA/1.71 FIP/2.42 xFIP, 33.7 K%, 5.6 BB%, .226 BA Against/.216 xBA Against, 42.6 HardHit%
Ray: 21 games, 124 ⅓ innings, 3.04 ERA/3.94 FIP/3.41 xFIP, 30.5% K%, 6.7% BB%, .217 BA Against/.227 xBA Against, 44.9 HardHit%
Sunday, August 8 (1 p.m. EST/11 a.m. MST): Garrett Richards vs. Hyun Jin Ryu:
Richards: 21 games, 105 ⅓ innings, 5.21 ERA/5.13 FIP/4.86 xFIP, 17.6 K%, 9.8 BB%, .298 BA Against/.293 xBA Against, 50.7 HardHit%
Ryu: 21 games, 123 innings, 3.22 ERA/3.62 FIP/3.91 xFIP, 20.4 K%, 5.0 BB%, .241 BA Against/.253 xBA Against, 39.9 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 59-51
Run differential: +42 (537 Runs, 495 Runs Allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 9-6
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 1-5
Last 10 games: 3-7
When last these teams met, the Jays entered Fenway Park 9.5 games behind the division-leading Red Sox. Now, the Blue Jays only find themselves five games behind Boston, who are now a second-place team.
Are the Boston Red Sox… Actually frauds???
I’ve said as much multiple times whenever I’ve had to talk about the Red Sox, and I’ve looked like a fool basically every time. But for the first time maybe all year, with their last series against the Blue Jays this regular season coming up (thank Christ) it’s looking like Boston may have hit a wall. To be blunt, they’ve finally looked more and more like the same team that, before the regular season, just didn’t seem to look all that great. And I’ve said that before and looked the fool just about every time, but I really think I’m onto something here!
It’s not like the Red Sox were a flawless juggernaut either, even when they did look really good. Yeah, their offence is dangerous, but there was a notable lack of production coming from the catcher position (though Christian Vázquez has a vice grip on the starting job) first base (where Bobby Dalbec has been just awful all year) and centre field (Jarren Duran has struggled in his first taste of MLB action). You’re not getting rid of Vázquez, and if they still feel that Duran is ready, then he needs a longer look. But first base was an obvious area for improvement.
However, while Anthony Rizzo would have been a perfect addition, Rizzo was instead dealt to the division-rival Yankees, and instead opted to sign Kyle Schwarber, a left-fielder who has played a grand total of one game at first base in the Major Leagues. That’s assuming the Red Sox decide to use him there instead of the current platoon of Dalbec and Franchy Cordero, which, uh, at this point, knowing what those two provide offensively, they might be forced to take the defensive hit and do.
Save for Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodríguez (whose peripherals are far better than his 5.33 ERA would indicate), and a handful of starts from Tanner Houck, the rest of the Red Sox starting rotation, Martín Pérez, Garrett Richards, and Nick Pivetta have all been very, very bad. Opting against adding a much-needed starting pitcher at the deadline, instead of getting marginal bullpen upgrades in Hansel Robles, Austin Davis, and Yacksel Ríos, the Red Sox have put all their eggs in the “hope Chris Sale can come back and pick up where he left off” basket. If he’s anything less than great, and him being immediately great is a lot to ask, given how long he’s been out, the Red Sox may be in trouble, even considering the cushion they’ve built up.
Best Players Thus Far:
Rafael Devers, Third Base, .286/.356/.569, 144 wRC+
Xander Bogaerts, Shortstop, .307/.375/.516, 139 wRC+
Enrique Hernández, Super Utility, .253/.333/.471, 116 wRC+
Nathan Eovaldi, Starting Pitcher, 3.71 ERA/3.58 xFIP, 23.6 K%, 4.3 BB%
J.D. Martinez, Designated Hitter, .284/.351/.528, 134 wRC+
Under-Performers:
Garrett Richards, Starting Pitcher, 4.99 ERA/4.77 xFIP, 17.6 K%, 9.9 BB%
Bobby Dalbec, First Base, .213/.258/.390, 71 wRC+
Marwin González, Super Utility, .203/.281/.291, 58 wRC+