Series Preview: Boston Red Sox (56-38) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (48-42)
(Plus: A Brief Ode to Joel Payamps)
With the sweep of the Texas Rangers at the hands of your Toronto Blue Jays now completed, the entire state of Texas will now undergo the process of being repatriated by Mexico. Sorry Texans, I don’t write the law.
With the Blue Jays reacting to the news that IT’S COMING HOME by thoroughly and completely decimating the Rangers, next in line are the division-leading Boston Red Sox, who just came off an utterly bizarre series with the Yankees. Before we get into that series, humour me as I plead for engagement. If you like what Jayslam is doing, please consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or an enemy! I’m happy with either.
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A BRIEF ODE TO JOEL PAYAMPS
On Friday, the Jays activated left-handed reliever Ryan Borucki from the 60-Day IL, providing another degree of much-needed relief to the bullpen (as did the fact that only four innings of work were needed from the relief corps over the whole series.
The reciprocal move was, unfortunately, designating Joel Payamps for assignment. It was a puzzling move for some fans whose sole barometer of pitching performance is ERA. Which isn’t to besmirch Payamps’ performance. Beyond his 2.70 ERA, Payamps certainly got the job done, and some analytics, mainly his ability to limit solid contact, seemed to indicate that it was at least partly for real.
However, there were some downsides to Payamps. There’s a reason he was rarely used in high leverage beyond “Charlie Montoyo Bad”. He doesn’t strike out many guys out at all, and he walks a bit more hitters than average. He doesn’t have an out pitch and didn’t ever really show the right profile to be pressed into high-leverage service except in an emergency. He’s not gonna be a 2.70 ERA pitcher forever. My opinion is that he’s probably closer to his 4.21 FIP or 5.04 xFIP.
For posterity’s sake, Payamps’ xERA stat is at a stellar 2.62. My suspicion is that it’s overemphasizing his ability to induce soft contact and not taking into his account his low strikeout ability and his poor walk rate.
Payamps had been optioned to Triple-A, where he had been knocked around for four innings, which isn’t exactly an encouraging sign. Some might still say that he deserves a 40-man spot over the likes of Tyler Chatwood, Rafael Dolis, or Jacob Barnes. The fact of the matter is that the Jays have more money invested in Chatwood and Dolis. Erratic and/or bad as they’ve been, those two have also flashed way more potential than Payamps. Until they absolutely have to make a move regarding them, the Jays are probably going to keep working on Chatwood and Dolis.
Barnes is a bit more on the bubble, also being a strictly low-leverage reliever who’s struggled recently for the Jays. While Barnes’ ERA is uglier, he also strikes way more people out and walks fewer hitters than Payamps. I think Barnes may be the next reliever cut when more bullpen upgrades are made, but I can see the rationale for keeping him over Payamps.
I’m sure it’s a frustrating situation for Payamps, who had been kicked around the waiver wire in the previous offseason and looked to have established himself in the Jays’ relief corps for a while. He will soon likely find himself with a new organization, as I think he’s at least superficially played himself into a roster spot on another team in need of bullpen depth.
BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (11) 10 plate appearances, .333/.400/1.333, 12 total bases, 4 Weighted Runs Created, 0.06 Win Probability Added, 0.50 WPA/LI
Throw a dart at a printout of the position players on the active roster and you’ll probably hit a player worthy of Best Bird. While I once again went with Guerrero off the strength of his three dingers, you could make the argument that it was a coin flip between Vladdy and Teoscar Hernández, who had an extremely aesthetically pleasing blast off of Jordan Lyles on Friday.
Honourable Mentions: Teoscar Hernández, Randal Grichuk
Pitcher: Robbie Ray (8) 7 innings, 26 batters faced, 4 hits, 0 earned runs, 8 strikeouts, 2 walks, 1.67 FIP, 76 Game Score v2, 0.22 Win Probability Added, 0.28 WPA/LI
All three Jays starters looked excellent this weekend, shutting out the Rangers through a collective 19 innings. I once again could have flipped a coin between Hyun Jin Ryu, who pitched the team’s first complete game of the year (albeit in seven innings) and Robbie Ray, the first player in team history to start and get the win in consecutive games, which I think is neat. I went with Ray, but I could look back at this later and think that Ryu deserved it more. Kudos also to Steven Matz, who had a great scoreless five innings on Sunday.
Honourable Mentions: Hyun Jin Ryu, Steven Matz
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 11
Bo Bichette- 5
Marcus Semien- 5
George Springer- 2
Joe Panik- 2 (now on the Miami Marlins)
Randal Grichuk- 2
Santiago Espinal- 1
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
Teoscar Hernández- 1
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 8
Hyun Jin Ryu- 6
Alek Manoah- 4
Steven Matz- 4
Ross Stripling- 3
Julian Merryweather- 2 (60-day IL)
Anthony Kay- 1
Anthony Castro- 1 (sent down to Triple-A)
Ryan Borucki- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Monday, July 19 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Nick Pivetta vs. Ross Stripling
Pivetta: 18 games, 96 ⅓ innings, 4.30 ERA/4.18 FIP/4.32 xFIP, 27.8 K%, 10.8 BB%, .219 BA Against/.213 xBA Against, 40.1 HardHit%
Stripling: 15 games (14 starts), 74 ⅔ innings, 4.34 ERA/4.87 FIP/4.35 xFIP, 24.8 K%, 7.3 BB%, .238 BA Against/.236 xBA Against, 40.1 HardHit%
Tuesday, July 20 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Garrett Richards vs. Alek Manoah
Richards: 18 games, 91 ⅔ innings, 4.91 ERA/4.71 FIP/4.85 xFIP, 17.4 K%, 10.2 BB%, .298 BA Against/.290 xBA Against, 51.2 HardHit%
Manoah: Eight games, 40 ⅓ innings, 2.90 ERA/4.26 FIP/3.99 xFIP, 31.0 K%, 8.9 BB%, .188 BA Average/.184 xBA Against, 34 HardHit%
Wednesday, July 21 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Tanner Houck vs. Robbie Ray
Houck: Four games (two starts), 13 ⅓ innings, 3.38 ERA/2.35 FIP/2.84 xFIP, 26.8 K%, 3.6 BB%, .278 BA Average/.215 xBA Average, 38.5 HardHit%
Ray: 18 games, 107 ⅔ innings, 2.93 ERA/3.80 FIP/3.18 xFIP, 31.9 K%, 6.3 BB%, .213 BA Against/.220 xBA Against, 47 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 52-42
Run differential: +51 (470 Runs, 419 Runs Allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 5-4
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 16-11
Last 10 games: 4-6
For those of you wondering where I'm currently at in the “are the Red Sox actually good” debate, know that I have oscillated back to “they’re all frauds”. Is that unfounded? Maybe. Do I still choose to believe that regardless? Absolutely.
Regardless of my own skepticism of how good they actually are (mostly because I’m not sure how this rotation has been Top 10 in baseball), the Red Sox have thus far succeeded in being solid, if not quite great, at every aspect of the game. A lot of their production has been buoyed by a handful of key performers: Their offence continues to be spearheaded by Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and J.D. Martinez, as the likes of Alex Verdugo and Christian Vázquez underperform. All-Star starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi has been terrific, while Eduardo Rodríguez has been punished by bad luck by the look of it, as his bad ERA doesn’t match up with his analytics and peripherals. Nick Pivetta and Martín Pérez have been inexplicably okay, while Garrett Richards has been letting hitters get on base like it’s going out of style. I would say that the bullpen is the aspect of this team that is most likely to bottom out on Boston, but Chris Sale coming back at some point in the coming weeks should be a boost, in theory.
The back end of the bullpen has an excellent core of Matt Barnes, Adam Ottavino, Garrett Whitlock, and Josh Taylor, but other relievers haven’t been as inspiring. Hirokazu Sawamura strikes out a lot of batters, but that’s about all he does, as his low ERA may be more so a product of batted ball luck. Ditto Darwinzon Hernández to a lesser extent, while the now-injured Matt Andriese has just been bad.
With the Rays nipping at their heels and the Blue Jays and (maybe?) Yankees looming behind them the Red Sox are going to have to prove that they can hang, if only via Alex Cora’s devil magic.
Best Players Thus Far:
Xander Bogaerts, Shortstop, .321/.386/.547, 150 wRC+
Rafael Devers, Third Base, .279/.353/.558, 140 wRC+
Nathan Eovaldi, Starting Pitcher, 3.57 ERA/3.59 xFIP, 23.3 K%, 4.6 BB%
J.D. Martinez, Designated Hitter, .296/.368/.554, 145 wRC+
Matt Barnes, Relief Pitcher, 2.61 ERA/2.12 xFIP, 44.1 K%, 7.7 BB%
Key Under-Performers:
Marwin González, Super Utility, .205/.286/.297, 61 wRC+
Bobby Dalbec, First Base, .216/.259/.400, 74 wRC+
Garrett Richards, Starting Pitcher, 4.91 ERA/4.85 xFIP, 17.4 K%, 10.2 BB%