Series Preview: Atlanta (12-12) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (11-12)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer are Toronto Blue Jays.
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BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3) 8 plate appearances, .429/.500/1.714, 505 wRC+, 0.37 WPA
What is there even left today at this point? Sometimes, all you need is some tune-up at-bats against fringe-MLB guys like Max Scherzer to get you back on track.
Honourable Mentions: Cavan Biggio, Alejandro Kirk
Pitcher: Anthony Castro (1) 1 ⅓ innings, 5 batters faced, 0 hits, 0 earned runs, 2 strikeouts, 1 walk, 4.59 xFIP, 0.19 WPA
I feel like I could have given this to any pitcher from game 1 not named Trent Thornton, Tommy Milone, or Joel Payamps. Anthony Castro and Tim Mayza held the Nationals in check while it wasn’t yet clear that Vladdy was singlehandedly winning the game for the Blue Jays. Tyler Chatwood came in when the Nationals made it close in the seventh and responded by striking out Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber (admittedly not the hardest feats, but still). And Rafael Dolis pitched another solid inning to secure the win. I went back and forth between Castro and Chatwood, but in the end, I went with the former Detroit Tiger, who continues to prove himself as a high-leverage relief option and who continues to prompt two questions. First: Why did the Tigers let him go? Two: How the fuck did we pass him through waivers???
Honourable Mentions: Tyler Chatwood, Tim Mayza
ROSTER/INJURY UPDATES
George Springer, who plays for the Toronto Blue Jays, made his debut with the team on Wednesday. He went 0-for-4, hitting a couple of balls well and hard, but unfortunately right at the Washington Nationals’ defenders.
Hyun Jin Ryu is going on the 10-day IL with a right glute strain, which he suffered in his start last Sunday against the Rays. Ryu had originally said that he didn’t think he needed an IL stint. The Jays felt differently, but it’s not especially worrying at this point (if maybe a fair bit frustrating) as it just gives the impression of being a Dodgers-Esque load management IL stint more so than anything else. He’s eligible to come off of the IL during the series against the Athletics, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s exactly when he gets back. However, given that we’re talking about injuries and the 2021 Toronto Blue Jays, I reserve the right to take that back at any moment.
Also, no rush, but if Nate Pearson and Ross Stripling could get back to throwing baseballs for the Major League team sooner rather than later, well golly would that sure ever help matters.
Rowdy Tellez getting optioned came as a bit of a surprise, as the big first baseman had begun slowly but surely figuring it out at the plate after an atrocious hitless streak to start the season. With George Springer and Teoscar Hernández coming off the IL, Randal Grichuk still hitting well enough to justify starting every day, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. not moving back to third base anytime soon, the DH spot is going to be occupied for a good long while. Rowdy was probably going to be squeezed out of some playing time, at least until Springer and Téo are healthy enough to play the field every day. The fact that four of the next seven starting pitchers the Jays are scheduled to face are lefties may have something to do with it, too.
Still a little weird to see Rowdy get sent down while the likes of Jonathan Davis, who is only seeing time as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner at this point, stay up.
UPDATE: Teocar Hernández is back, Davis has indeed been sent down, and Tanner Roark has been DFA’d.
Travis Bergen was called up to provide even more bullpen depth for the 11-man Blue Jays bullpen, their fourth lefty option after Ryan Borucki, Tim Mayza, and Tommy Milone. He pitched a clean inning of garbage time on Wednesday.
While the minor league assignments probably warrant their own post, it’s worth mentioning that Nate Pearson has been activated from the IL, and will eventually travel with the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons to their temporary home in Trenton, New Jersey, the Bat Dog Capital of the World. Knowing the state of the Blue Jays’ rotation right now, this doesn’t strike me as a “you’re healthy, but we don’t think you’re good enough for the Majors, so rot in Trenton motherfucker” kind of move. It strikes me more as a “you’re probably still not one hundred percent, so have yourself a few games against the Worcester Red Sox and Rochester Red Wings to finish rounding into shape. And then hurry back to Dunedin, please, this thing is one bad, short Robbie Ray start away from blowing up in our faces” kind of move.
Also, and I repeat, this will probably have to wait for its own post for me to do it justice, but HELLO Alek Manoah!
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Friday, April 30 (7:30 p.m. EST/5:30 p.m. MST): Drew Smyly vs. Robbie Ray
Smyly: Three starts, 15 innings, 7.20 ERA/5.36 xERA/4.69 xFIP, 23.8 K%, 4.8 BB%, .261 xBA Against, 57.8 HardHit%
Ray: Three starts, 16 innings, 2.81 ERA/4.83 xERA/4.85 xFIP, 21.7 K%, 13 BB%, .260 xBA Against, 40 HardHit%
Saturday, May 1 (7:30 p.m. EST/5:30 p.m. MST): Charlie Morton vs. the Blue Jays Bullpen
Morton: Five starts, 28 ⅓ innings, 4.76 ERA/3.46 xERA/3.31 xFIP, 28 K%, 8.5 BB%, .235 xBA Against, 38.4 HardHit%
Sunday, April 25 (1 p.m. EST /11 a.m. MST): Ian Anderson vs. Who Even Fucking Knows, Man
Anderson: Five starts, 29 innings, 2.48 ERA/4.09 xERA/3.03 xFIP, 26.5 K%, 10.3 BB%, .259 xBA Against, 40.5 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 12-12
Run differential: +4 (114 runs scored, 110 runs allowed)
Last 10 Games: 6-4
Atlanta wasn’t at their most convincing at the start of a season in which they expected to compete in the division, opening it up with four straight losses. Since then, they’ve righted the ship, going 12-8 with the offence being carried in large part by first baseman Freddie Freeman and, of course, the phenomenal Ronald Acuña Jr., who has been without a doubt one of the best players in the season so far. Their performances, as well as that of breakout candidate Austin Riley and PABLO FUCKING SANDOVAL, OF ALL PEOPLE, have gone a big way to offsetting the slow starts suffered by Ozzie Albies, Travis d’Arnaud, Cristian Pache (who has ended up being sent down), and especially Marcell Ozuna, one of the best hitters in the league in 2020, but one who is only managing a meagre 66 wRC+ to start the year.
While the starting rotation is missing its two best pitchers (Max Fried and Mike Soroka) to injury, Atlanta’s gotten good contributions from offseason signing Charlie Morton, and rookies Ian Anderson and Huascar Ynoa. Their bullpen, on the other hand, has been kind of weak, aside from a solid back end of Will Smith, A.J. Minter, and Tyler Matzek. Luke Jackson has outpitched some bad peripherals, while Nate Jones has kept the damage to a 3.72 ERA while striking very few people out, and walking a Robbie Ray-Esque 7.45 batters per nine innings. Josh Tomlin, a pitcher I could have sworn had retired, has been similarly bad, but with the ERA to match it.
Atlanta figures to be neck and neck with the Mets the entire year, and they’ll hope to jump on a Blue Jays team whose pitching staff, while extremely effective throughout the season so far, is being held together with sticky-tack and bubblegum at the moment.