Season Preview: Tampa Bay Rays (26-19) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (23-19)
The sooner the Jays get out of Florida, the better, my fucking god.
The Toronto Blue Jays were one hanging Rafael Dolis slider to J.D. Martinez away from taking two of three games from the Red Sox, and it’s probably gonna be another close-fought series coming up as the Rays cross Pinellas County for what’s going to be the last Blue Jays home series in Dunedin. And I can’t stress this enough: Thank fucking goodness.
Before we chat about the upcoming series (I’m taking bets on whether or not there’ll be more Rays or Jays fans, if anybody wants a shot at some money), humour me as I plead for engagement. If you like that JAYSLAM is here, providing fresh Jay-related #content multiple times a week, consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or one who’s not! Whatever!
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BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Marcus Semien (3) 15 plate appearances, .417/.533/.750, 5 Weighted Runs Created, 0.37 WPA/LI
For as emotionally dead as I feel writing this after the third game of the Red Sox series, it’s worth mentioning that the Jays actually hit really well for the series as a whole. Teoscar Hernández, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were all convincing candidates, but in the end, I went with Marcus Semien, the man who leads all Major League second basemen in fWAR at the time of writing.
Honourable Mentions: Teoscar Hernández, Bo Bichette
Pitcher: Hyun Jin Ryu (3) 7 innings, 25 batters faced, 4 hits, 0 earned runs, 0 walks, 1.13 FIP, 80 Game Score v2, 0.38 WPA/IL
All Ryu did on Tuesday was throw his best start yet during his tenure with the Toronto Blue Jays. It’s been a while since the Jays had a pitcher who just feels like a guaranteed win when he’s on the mound (David Price? Roy Halladay???), and watching Ryu fills that void nicely.
Tyler Chatwood (who I swear must be leading the team in Best Bird honourable mentions at this point) and Jordan Romano looked excellent in higher leverage relief stints, while the likes of Trent Thornton, A.J. Cole, and Jeremy Beasley looked good in some decidedly more non-critical innings in Wednesday’s game. As for starters
Honourable Mentions: Tyler Chatwood, Jordan Romano
Best Bird Standings
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 4
Marcus Semien- 3
Bo Bichette- 2
Randal Grichuk- 2
Teoscar Hernández- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
George Springer- 1
Pitchers:
Steven Matz- 4
Hyun Jin Ryu- 3
Robbie Ray- 3
Julian Merryweather- 2
Anthony Castro- 1
Ryan Borucki- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Friday, May 21 (7:30 p.m. EST/5:30 p.m. MST): Tyler Glasnow vs. Anthony Kay
Glasnow: Nine starts, 57 ⅓ innings, 2.35 ERA/2.41 xERA/2.68 xFIP, 38.6 K%, 9.1 BB%, .166 xBA Against, 47 HardHit%
Kay: Four games (three starts), 13 ⅔ innings, 7.24 ERA/3.60 xERA/4.15 xFIP, 25.8 K%, 9.7 BB%, .219 xBA Against, 32.4 HardHit%
Saturday, May 22 (7:30 p.m. EST/5:30 p.m. MST): Shane McClanahan vs. Robbie Ray
McClanahan: Four starts, 17 ⅓ innings, 4.67 ERA/3.45 xERA/3.05 xFIP, 30.6 K%, 6.9 BB%, .230 xBA Against, 48.9 HardHit%
Ray: Seven starts, 40 ⅓ innings, 3.79 ERA/4.11 xERA/3.39 xFIP, 28.9 K%, 6.6 BB%, .247 xBA Against, 48.1 HardHit%
Sunday, May 23 (1 p.m. EST/11 a.m. MST): Josh Fleming vs. Hyun Jin Ryu
Fleming: Seven games (four starts), 34 ⅔ innings, 2.34 ERA/3.71 xERA/4.24 xFIP, 15.6 K%, 8.1 BB%, .243 xBA Against, 35.6 HardHit%
Ryu: Eight starts, 46 ⅔ innings, 2.51 ERA/3.37 xERA/3.04 xFIP, 24.5 K%, 2.7 BB%, .247 xBA Against, 33.6 HardHit%
Monday, May 24 (1 p.m. EST/11 a.m. MST): Ryan Yarbrough vs. Ross Stripling
Yarbrough: Nine games (five starts), 46 ⅔ innings, 4.24 ERA/4.39 xERA/4.30 xFIP, 17.3 K%, 5.0 BB%, .214 xBA Against, 29.7 HardHit%
Stripling: Six starts, 25 innings, 7.20 ERA/6.09 xERA/4.19 xFIP, 24.6 K%, 6.8 BB%, .286 xBA Against, 45.7 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean record: 26-19
Run differential: +38 (217 Runs, 179 Runs Allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 1-2
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 15-8
Last 10 games: 7-3
Since losing their April series against the Jays in Tropicana Field, the Rays have been on a tear. Currently, they’re on a seven-game streak, culminating in a decimation of the Baltimore Orioles.
Continuing their tried-and-true method of "aggravating opponents via low-budget death to a thousand cuts”, the Rays have been a top-10 offence in baseball this year, led by Joey Wendle, rookie phenom Randy Arozarena, surprisingly low-power corner infielder Yandy Díaz, Austin Meadows, and the recently-activated Ji-Man Choi have all been very strong to start the year. On the other hand, Kevin Kiermaier has been typically below-average with the bat (though obviously remaining one of, if not the best, defensive centerfielders in the game), while middle infielders Willy Adames and Brandon Lowe have gotten off to slow starts.
The biggest surprise to start the year has been starting catcher Mike Zunino, he of the 50 wRC+ in 2019-20. In the first two months, Zunino has offset his swing-and-miss approach by crushing the ever-loving shit out of the ball, second place in baseball in Barrels per plate appearance (14%) behind only Byron Buxton, and in the 95th percentile for Expected Slugging. In terms of Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement, the Rays’ catching corps of Mike Zunino and Francisco Mejía (plus minimal contributions from Kevan Smith and Joseph Odom) is the third-best in baseball behind only the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Which, uh, I certainly did not fucking call.
While the Rays’ starting pitching was scuffling and feeling the losses of Blake Snell and Charlie Morton last we checked, it has largely settled into a Top 10 rotation in the big leagues. Yonny Chirinos is out for the year and Chris Archer has yet to prove that he is a carbon-based life form currently playing baseball for the Tampa Bay Rays. Rich Hill, Ryan Yarbrough, Josh Fleming, Shane McClanahan, and the injured Michael Wacha and Luis Patiño have all been at least solid, as has their bullpen, anchored by the likes of Diego Castillo, Ryan Thompson, Andrew Kittredge, Collin McHugh, and whoever the fuck Jeffrey Springs is.
(UPDATE: Shortstop Willy Adames and reliever Trevor Richards have been traded to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for relievers J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen.)
The best pitcher on the Rays, though, is clearly strikeout artist Tyler Glasnow, who has come into his own as a true ace thanks to a high-90s fastball and a disgusting cutter/slider hybrid whose given name of “slutter” never gets less uncomfortable for me to say or write. The Jays got to Glasnow for five runs in April, but given how he’s pitched this year, they’re going to have to be at their best to repeat the result in game one.
Best Players Thus Far:
Tyler Glasnow, Starting Pitcher, 2.35 ERA/2.32 xERA, 38.6 K%, 9.1 BB%
Randy Arozarena, Left Field/Right Field, 283/.370/.459, 140 wRC+
Joey Wendle, Utility Infielder, .309/.354/.537, 132 wRC+
Mike Zunino, Catcher, .211/.290/.567, 139 wRC+
Yandy Díaz, First Base/Third Base, .280/.401/.329, 122 wRC+
Key Under-Performers:
Willy Adames, Shortstop, .197/.254/.371, 78 wRC+
Brandon Lowe, Second Base, .197/.300/.374, 98 wRC+
Mike Brosseau, Super Utility, .163/.217/.349, 61 wRC+