OH MY GOD IT'S HAPPENING
Blue Jays sign right-handed starting pitcher Kevin Gausman, right-handed relief pitcher Yimi García, miss out on re-signing Marcus Semien
Well, it only took three weeks, but the Toronto Blue Jays have finally made some major league additions in the 2021-22 offseason. And boy what additions they are. The Jays finally got their guy in Kevin Gausman, a top-of-the-rotation arm now under contract for the next five seasons who suddenly makes Toronto’s rotations look like one of the better corps in the major leagues.
While it’s not quite on the same level of hype, reliever Yimi García provides us with something even better than any big name could provide: The ability to make a lot of roundabout references to American Idiot.
On the other hand, Marcus Semien’s time with the Blue Jays, in which he put together maybe the greatest season by any second baseman in the history of Major League Baseball, is officially over. And with the CBA expiration and a lockout likely looming, we’re looking at a few days where the Jays, as well as every other team, look to be extremely active before the transaction freeze kicks in. So most importantly, it’s probably past time to get this post out before “Carlos Correa to the Jays for 15 years, $400 million” or whatever drops.
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St. Yimi's Coming Down
On Saturday evening, former All-Star second baseman Carlos Baerga broke on his Instagram that right-handed relief pitcher Yimi García had signed with the Toronto Blue Jays for two years and a minimum of $11 million. García will receive a $1 million as a signing bonus, $4 million in 2022, and $5 million in 2023.
In 2024, both a club option and a vesting option come into play, meaning that one of three scenarios could unfold. First, if García either hits 110 innings pitched over 2022 and 2023 combined, or pitches 60 innings or in 60 games in 2023, a $6 million vesting option for 2024 kicks in.
If those conditions aren’t met, the vesting option doesn’t kick in, that vesting option becomes a club option worth $5 million. Either Toronto re-ups García for one year, or they decline his option, instead paying him $1 million as a buyout.
Ben Nicholson-Smith also reports that García has other, more lucrative offers on the table, but the reliever instead chose the Blue Jays on account of them being closer to contending for a title.
I’ve never had a tweet about the contract negotiations for a floor-raising relief pitcher get me so hot and bothered in ways that I refuse to interrogate. What a world.
The 31-year-old García is a product of the Los Angeles Dodgers system, signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2009 and debuting in the Majors in 2014. His tenure with the Dodgers was marred by injuries, including a Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2017 season, and most of his 2016 and 2018 seasons. His only full seasons were in 2015 (3.34 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 30.2 K%, 4.4 BB%) and 2019 (3.61 ERA, 5.19 FIP, 26.7 K%, 5.7 BB%), and were both solid, albeit to various extents. Not solid enough to prevent the Dodgers from non-tendering him after the 2019 season, prompting García to sign with the Miami Marlins.
The shortened 2020 season paid big dividends results-wise for García (0.60 ERA, 1.66 FIP, 31.7 K%, 8.3 BB%), who established himself as a mainstay in the Marlins bullpen until he was traded to the Houston Astros days before the 2021 Trade Deadline. García was solid once again for the Marlins, who had him in a traditional closer role, but struggled after moving back to a middle relief role after the trade to the Astros, mainly due to home runs (5.48 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 29.1 K%, 5.8 BB%). Overall, the last three years with LA, Miami, and Houston (3.53 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 26.7 K%, 6.8 BB%) have proven Yimi García to be not a great, but a solid reliever, ideal for raising the floor of any bullpen.
Given that two big-name relievers are still available on the market (Kenley Jansen and Raisel Iglesias) some may wonder why the Jays didn’t exactly shoot for the moon by signing García. And the answer, besides García simply being a fine reliever in his own right, is that that simply isn’t this front office’s MO. Attempt to bring Liam Hendriks aboard last year aside, they’ve shied away from offering substantial contract for relievers. Understandable given how frequently relief pitchers oscillate between being elite, erratic, and garbage. With more glaring holes in the starting rotation and the infield, so long as Rogers insists on giving the team a budget, it’s totally defensible for the Jays to aim for lower cost guys (who, it cannot be said enough, are still good) and use that money for higher impact players at other positions.
As for Yimi García himself, he’s a rare relief pitcher that features a five-pitch arsenal. His most used pitches are his four-seam fastball (39.3 percent of the time, mid-to-high 90s, ranking in the 95th percentile for spin), a slider (29.8 percent, one of the fastest in the game, averaging out at 90 miles per hour), and a curveball (18.2 percent, low-to-mid 80s, ranking in the 83rd percentile for spin). García will occasionally mix in a changeup and sinker, and he’ll use them as put-away pitches almost as much as the others, but the four seamer, slider, and curveball are his best offerings, with Baseball Savant giving each pitch a run value of -13, -8, and -5 respectively over the past three seasons.
García fills the zone with his three main pitches, relying on their pin to get swings-and-misses, which he does at an above-average rate. He won’t usually go outside of the zone until the batter’s down to third strikes, when he’ll start aiming for the edges and getting hitters to chase outside (his chase rate of 29.3 percent in 2021 ranked in the 65th percentile). His great movement means that he’ll get his fair share of strikeouts, while his tendency to fill the zone limits walks. Personally, he strikes me as a moderated version of Trevor Richards with both lower strikeout and walk rates, with a more diverse pitch mix as well.
Also like Richards, García’s biggest weakness as a pitcher, typically for one who tends to leave that ball over the plate is his tendency to give up the long ball. He’s had one of the higher fly ball rates in the game over the past three seasons, and allowed 1.25 home runs per nine innings in 2021. It’s no coincidence that 2020, his best season (albeit in only 15 innings), had his lowest fly ball rate and no home runs allowed, though it’s likely unrealistic to say “he should do whatever he did that season” given that minuscule sample size.
Even if the home runs stay a problem though, García is a good piece for the Jays bullpen, still fronted by Jordan Romano and Tim Mayza, with Adam Cimber, Richards, and now García as solid middle relief options. With Ross Stripling (pending a rotation addition, please), Julian Merryweather, Ryan Borucki, newly claimed Shaun Anderson, and others in the mix for the last two or three spots in the pen, there is definitely room (and need) for more additions, but the Jays should be pleased about this addition. Now if you’ll excuse me, I need to get to work on a truly embarrassing edit of Green Day’s “St. Jimmy”, because this is the direction I’ve decided to let this signing take me, apparently.
Smile Because it Happened
On Sunday, shortstop and second baseman Marcus Semien signed with the Texas Rangers for seven years and $175 million. Thus bringing an official end to his short tenure with the Toronto Blue Jays, in which he put together a 6.6 fWAR season, slashing .265/.334/.538 with a 131 wRC+, winning both a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove in the process while also finishing third in the AL MVP vote.
I kid, I kid. First thing’s first, congrats to Marcus Semien for betting on himself and coming up well on top. Playing in the AL West also means more frequent trips to his home in the Bay Area, which I assume proved a satisfactory substitute to his stated preference of actually playing for a team on the Pacific coast. The people on Twitter taking his doing right by both his family and the player’s union as some sort of slight against the Jays and their fans should go kick rocks.
And kudos to the Rangers. While I’m still utterly shocked that a 31-year-old got that many years, and I’m still baffled about when this team thinks its window is considering they recently traded Joey Gallo away, Semien is a huge boost to this team. It’s not been announced where exactly he’ll play for Texas (though my uninformed hunch is that he’ll be at second, and that the extra year or so was to make up for it), but wherever he plays, he’ll share the infield with first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, shortstop/third baseman (likely depending where Semien ends up) Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and nominal second baseman Nick Solak, who likely gets shunted to a bench role should they add another infielder.
This also definitely isn’t going to be a post where I run interference for Rogers, who absolutely could have afforded this deal without even taking a financial dent. Nor will I downplay Semien’s contributions or how good I think he’ll be going forward. While some of his Statcast numbers aren’t as eye-popping as his on-field results, and while both his excellent speed and already-middling power (oddly enough, despite his 45 home runs last year, his hard hit and barrel rates were only slightly above average, which the amount of loopy, wall-scraping home runs he hit would seem to corroborate) are almost certain to decline relatively soon in his contact, you would have to be terminally pessimistic to think that Semien, who leads all of baseball in fWAR in 2019 through 2021 (yes, ALL of it), will be anything less than great for Texas, at least for the first few years of his deal.
You would have to be delusional to think that the Jays won’t miss Semien at second base. Even if his bat may be due to regression, he still profiles as a good hitter, and his excellent defence, speed, and clubhouse presence will be hard to replace.
None of this is to say that I think the front office necessarily made a mistake in not matching or exceeding the Rangers’ offer. Much as I hate the notion that a parasitic corporation that makes more money than God simply couldn’t afford to bring Semien back, the fact of the matter is that it would be naive of me to pretend that the Jays aren’t operating under the sports landscape that they are. With the last signing of this post (which we will get to, believe you me), the Jays have already just about matched last season’s budget, and while management has indicated that they will have more room to spend, it stands to reason that there’s still a limit that Rogers has indicated they can’t surpass. Which sucks, but it’s the unfortunate reality of professional sports, and there’s no pretending otherwise.
With some of the younger players getting deservedly more expensive in the coming years, the front office made the calculation that paying Semien that much money for that many years wasn’t worth it for the goal of the Jays’ long-term success. With the specters of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette’s extensions looming, this is not going to be an inexpensive team, not that it has been for a while, despite what boomers on social media have to say.
I hope this doesn’t come across as me counting Rogers’ money for them, because that isn’t my intention, and the day I speak in Rogers’ favour is the day I set myself on fire and calmly walk into the North Saskatchewan. And hey, Marcus Semien fucking rules. While the fact that he couldn’t make a deep playoff run with this team is now one of the bigger what-ifs in the franchise’s mythology, we’ll still have some outstanding memories, including some near-legendary walk-off home runs, with the first that comes to mind for me being the three-run dinger to walk off the team that cheaped out on him to complete an unreal walkoff that may have single-handedly resuscitated the team’s playoff push.
He’s a truly exceptional player and person, and while I’m sad to see him go, I’m eternally grateful for the short time he graced the Toronto Blue Jays and their fans with the privilege of watching him play.
Mmmm… Donuts…
Not to kill the reverent mood but oh my fucking god I am bugging the fuck out.
Sunday evening, Edmonton: I’ve just started writing the Marcus Semien section of this post, already having put off posting the Yimi García analysis that day. With Semien signing elsewhere, I’ve already committed to getting a combined García/Semien post out for Monday morning. Underestimating the sheer breakneck pace of the de facto signing deadline, I figured I wouldn’t need to pull a late night to accommodate all three of finishing this post, preparing for an early morning at my part-time job, and watching this gorilla video repeatedly until I pass out.
Several hours of writing, researching, and feverishly drooling over highlights later, I’ve never been so happy to be both wrong as shit and exhausted.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan was the first to report the Blue Jays’ signing of right-handed starting pitcher Kevin Gausman to a five-year deal, $110 million deal. While the exact financial terms are unknown thus far, this is reportedly less money than the New York Mets had offered him, which is both a testament to people actively wanting to be a part of what the Blue Jays are building, and absolutely hilarious.
Gotta say, the replies to that Martino tweet saying that Gausman is too soft for the pressure of New York and the NL East sure are making a bold statement saying that the combined might of the Phillies, Marlins, Nationals, and Atlanta are tougher opponents than the Rays, Yankees, and Red Sox.
Gausman was the Baltimore Orioles’ first round pick, fourth overall, in the 2012 draft out of LSU. Ranked 37th among all prospects in 2013, Gausman made his MLB debut in May of that year against that truly cursed Blue Jays team. In his six years with the Orioles, Gausman, described as a potential frontline starter, flashed potential but levelled out to pretty much adequate, pitching to an exactly league-average 100 ERA-. He did endear himself to fans with a love of donuts, which I distinctly remember getting a lot of airtime when I watched his debut on Sportsnet.
While searching for “kevin gausman donuts” I also came across this ancient, Jays-adjacent Gausman/donut content.
Remember the MLB Fan Cave? What a time to be alive.
During the 2018 Trade Deadline, the Orioles shipped Gausman and reliever Darren O’Day to Atlanta for a haul including international signing money, Brett Cumberland, Jean Carlos Encarnación, Evan Phillips, and Bruce Zimmermann. Historians are still disputing who won that deal.
This kicked off a period of instability over the next couple years, with Gausman being claimed off waivers by the Cincinnati Reds after getting off to the worst 16-game stretch of his career to begin the season with Atlanta. The Reds would non-tender him in 2019, and he would sign a one-year deal with the San Francisco Giants.
Whether it was pitching for his favourite team growing up, or playing in the generally pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, something clicked with Gausman in San Francisco. In the shortened season, 2020 proved to be the best year of his career, with Gausman posting a 3.62 ERA, 3.30 DRA, 3.02 FIP, and 3.06 xFIP, with a 32.2 K% and 6.5 BB%.
A free agent after that season, Gausman was offered a three-year, $40 million contract by the Blue Jays, but decided to take the Giants’ qualifying offer. All that he did after that was yet again have the best season of his career. While he wasn’t ultimately able to sustain a blistering start (1.73 ERA/2.57 FIP) Gausman still put together one of the best seasons in baseball for a pitcher in 2021, finishing in MLB’s top five in ERA and FIP, and top 10 in xFIP, DRA, SIERA, K%, and Chase%.
Like Robbie Ray, Gausman is virtually a two-pitch pitcher, leaning overwhelmingly on his four-seam fastball (52.7 percent of the time, mid 90s) and splitter (mid-to-low 80s) combo. The four-seamer is a solid pitch, but it’s probably not an exaggeration to say that the splitter took Gausman’s career to the next level, with his increased usage at the expense of his slider and changeup coinciding with his emergence as one of the better pitchers in the game. For 2021, Baseball Savant has his splitter’s run value at -23, tied with Adrian Houser’s sinker for second place in MLB just behind Carlos Rodón’s four-seamer (-24) and just ahead of Robbie Ray’s four-seamer (-22). This has made Gausman’s four-seamer/splitter combo one of the deadliest in the league, leading to an elite chase rate in the 92nd percentile.
Gausman gives up a fair bit of fly balls and got lucky on some hard contact in 2021 thanks to spacious Oracle Park, but tempers the potency of any potential home run with not only his splitter’s general unhittability, but a high strikeout rate and low walk rate. For all us Pete Walker stans out there, there’s some tantalizing possibilities as to how the Jays could help Gausman improve even further. Andrew Stoeten elaborates:
The Jays certainly have thought about not what Gausman himself brings already, but what they can help him unlock — and presumably sold him on exactly that kind of stuff, in addition to simply having the kind of organization and major league roster that now actually appeals to free agents. The Giants are no slouches in this department, so maybe there’s not a whole lot left to mine. But we keep hearing about pitchers under the Jays’ watch adding velocity — something Ray did last winter, for example, adding about 1 mph to his average fastball — and while Gausman doesn’t need that to be an exciting addition to this rotation, some extra velo or spin could potentially make him even more of a weapon.
Also importantly, by all accounts, is that by all accounts, he’s a really great dude.
All in all, it’s a fantastic pickup for the Jays that would seem to effectively replace the production of Robbie Ray. Does it necessarily preclude the possibility of bringing Ray back, though?
Not necessarily, and the prospect of a Ray/Gausman/Berríos/Ryu/Manoah rotation should be enough to make the Jays consider it, cost be damned. But I’d be lying if it didn’t seem quite unlikely now that the Jays would continue piling present and future salary onto a team that is only going to get more justifiably expensive. Not only that, but there’s also a flexibility element to letting both Ray and Semien walk and signing Gausman: While Ray and Semien both received qualifying offers, Gausman was ineligible, since he had received one the year before. This means that signing Gausman cost Toronto nothing in terms of draft picks, while the Blue Jays are guaranteed one extra draft pick, two if Ray signs elsewhere. This could potentially mean that the Jays would feel better about using some prospects now to trade for other players that could help them in 2022, providing payroll flexibility (every fan’s favourite pair of words!) in that manner.
Ray’s market is also sure to be big. With Gausman off the board and with Max Scherzer potentially signed with maybe the Mets (???) by the time of posting, he’s likely the number one free agent starting pitcher available. This means that any team that needs starting pitching, a group that includes not only the Jays but pretty much every other contending team, should be in on him. None of this is to say it’s impossible, it’s very much not and I hope it happens. I think it should happen I also hope that the Jays should give the luxury tax a middle finger. But I have serious doubts about either thing happening. With that said, having Kevin Gausman in the rotation goes some way towards alleviating that concern.
The Blue Jays still have holes to fill in the rotation, infield, and likely their bullpen. With more signings on the way and a work stoppage imminent, the time will be soon to evaluate ways that the Jays can go to fill their needs after the owners quit being big quivering parasitic babies pissing and shitting themselves transaction freeze ends, but a big step forward was taken with the signing of Gausman.