Matt Chapman, the Fabled Other, Bigger Shoe, has Dropped
(Blue Jays trade for Matt Chapman. Kevin Smith and additional prospects headed back to the Oakland A's)
The joke is truly on me for doubting the power and graphic design of the Baerga Bomb.
On Wednesday morning, Carlos Baerga broke on his Instagram account that the Toronto Blue Jays had traded with the Oakland Athletics for third baseman Matt Chapman in exchange for infield prospect Kevin Smith and pitching prospects Gunnar Hoglund, Zach Logue, and Kirby Snead. Full terms of the deal were confirmed by Shi Davidi.
Me Gustan los Deportes indeed.
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MATT CHAPMAN
As fun as the “trade for José Ramírez by (almost) any means necessary” meme was (or is?!), and as intriguing as Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, or my sick, sick fascination with Ryan McMahon are, Matt Chapman always looked like the best realistic option for a much-needed upgrade at third base.
The other Oakland Matt got a lot more attention, perhaps rightfully so, when he was traded to Atlanta. But with the A’s in peak fire sale mode, it was only a matter of time before Chapman was on his way out too. And while the buzz around him was pretty quiet, you had to figure the Jays were at least somewhat angling for him. Though in my darkest moments I was definitely trying to mentally tinker with lineups that included Jonathan Villar as the starting third baseman. Never again.
Matt Chapman is not José Ramírez. No third baseman not named José Enrique Ramírez is. But despite some offensive caveats (which we’ll get too), Chapman is a Top 10 third baseman by basically any metric, and one of the two best defensive third baseman in the majors, with only Nolan Arenado in the same stratosphere with a glove. You could very much make an argument that Chapman is a Top Three defensive player in MLB, full stop. That alone is a marked improvement for a team that ran Cavan Biggio at the hot corner more than a few times too many.
The Oakland Athletics drafted Chapman, a native of Victorville, California, in the first round of the 2014 draft out of Cal State Fullerton. He would work his way up through the system and debut with the A’s in June 2017, and while he had a strong rookie showing, the best was yet to come.
From 2018 through 2020, Matt Chapman slashed .259/.341/.510 with a 130 wRC+ (23rd in MLB, fourth among third basemen), buoyed by excellent plate discipline (9.7 BB%, 24.9 Chase%) as well as terrific power. He had the seventh highest hard hit percentage in baseball (48.1%), as well as the fourth highest average exit velocity (93.0 miles per hour). And somehow, Chapman’s glove was and is his best tool by several miles. Over the same span, he led all third basemen in both Defensive Runs Saved (53) and Ultimate Zone Rating (29.2), and was second place in Outs Above Average (23) behind only Nolan Arenado. For his efforts, Chapman was named to his only All-Star Game in 2019, as well as three consecutive Gold Glove awards (2018-20), two consecutive Platinum Gloves (2018-19), and two consecutive Fielding Bible awards (2018-19).
2020 was a mixed bag for Chapman. While he posted some of the best power numbers of his career, he also saw his walk rate take a nose dive and his strikeout rate bound to one of the worst in the Majors. His defence still held up and his offensive line (.232/.276/.535, 116 wRC+ in an injury-shortened 37 games), while heavily concerning, was still “FINE” overall. 2021 on the other hand, was a bit more on the “…Fine???” Side.
Troubled by the aftereffects of hip surgery, Chapman posted a .210/.314/.403 slash line (101 wRC+). While the walk rate and overall discipline bounced back to the best they’ve ever been, the strikeouts remained a worrying concern, with 32.5% ranked in the third percentile. While his barrel rates stayed high, his hard hit rate and exit velocity dipped from “elite” down to merely “above average”. So to pivot for what this means for the Blue Jays, how does adding Matt Chapman improve the team?
Well, it pretty much slams the door shut on Cavan Biggio playing third base on even an occasional basis this season, so that’s an incredible improvement already, on top of Chapman’s generational defensive talent. His glove (analyzed here by Nick Ashbourne) means that even if he performs to last year’s roughly league average offensive pace, he’s still a valuable player (he posted a 3.4 fWAR in 151 games). Acquiring Chapman also means that Biggio and Santiago Espinal are slotted into a platoon at second base, where Cavan profiles better defensively and where Espinal’s bat profiles better than at third base.
On the offensive side of things, there’s reason to believe a rebound is in order. Last season, easily his weakest season offensively, Chapman was coming off a surgery to repair his labrum and “clean up” his right femur bone. Anyone with functioning eyeballs can see how that might affect a hitter’s ability to generate power, and it stands to reason that may have sapped Chapman’s pop. Moving from the decidedly pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum to the Rogers Centre should also help out. If the higher strikeout rate can be remedied on top of that, we’re looking at a best case scenario of a top five all around third baseman. Worst case? A merely good one. No reason not to be thrilled about that.
The Last Hog Post :( Also, Others
To my shock, the Jays did not trade away either Biggio or Jordan Groshans, instead surrendering a surprisingly light bounty of prospects to the A’s.
Gunnar Hoglund is the second consecutive first-round pick to be dealt in the last year, after Austin Martin was traded alongside Simeon Woods-Richardson for José Berríos at the trade deadline. Hoglund has potential, but he’s also not going to debut in the minors until late this season at the absolute earliest, so he remains something of a question mark. This almost certainly plays into the Jays’ willingness to give him up, despite his promise.
Kevin Smith made a few appearances for the Blue Jays at the end of the year after an excellent season in Triple-A, but looked overmatched against Major League pitching. Finding himself blocked by Bo Bichette, Biggio, and Espinal, as well as with Jordan Groshans, Orelvis Martínez, and Leo Jiménez ascending behind him, Smith was a predictable trade candidate. Defensively he fits best at third base, and is currently slated to be the Oakland’s starter at the position. The A’s will ride his low-OBP, solid power, and decent defence for all it’s worth (which, if Keith Law is to be believed, is a lot! (Paywall)).
Older breakout starting pitcher prospect Zach Logue goes from a semi-promising depth starter with the Blue Jays to someone who has an excellent shot at opening the season on the A’s 26-man roster, especially if Frankie Montas and/or Sean Manaea are dealt. Likewise, lefty reliever Kirby Snead has an excellent shot at starting the year with the A’s. On the Jays’ end, Snead’s departure means that there’s less competition for the vaunted “lefty semi-specialist role”, now to be contested between Ryan Borucki, Andrew Vasquez, and Tayler Saucedo.
What’s Left of the Offseason
We’ve officially reached the point of the offseason where there’s a confluence of factors, being a lack of available free agents, a lack of time before the start of spring training games, and a lack of glaring holes to address on the Blue Jays’ roster.
With Fake (yet, welcome) Baseball beginning Friday, the biggest free agents left are Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Nick Castellanos and Michael Conforto, none of whom slot in neatly in the Jays’ plans with the possible exception of Conforto, who has nonetheless not been linked to the Blue Jays. And with third base and the starting rotation addressed, the only role that the team (by which I mean general manager Ross Atkins) has expressed a desire to potentially add is a left-handed hitter “better than a righty they have”, in typically nebulous Atkins-esque fashion.
Conforto may fill that role, but if the team decides against taking on more salary, bringing back Corey Dickerson in a similar role to the one he played with the team in the second half of last year should fill that niche in a satisfactory manner. They could theoretically add more to the bullpen, but the relief corps has seen the addition of a pretty sizeable amount of depth at both the major league and minor league levels. Signing a Kenley Jansen or even a Ryan Tepera certainly wouldn’t hurt, but it’s not exactly this front office’s modus operandi to sign relievers to bigger contracts.
Realistically, I think there’s probably one or two more players to add, but it almost certainly won’t be a Correa or Story, or even a Conforto or Jansen. If anything, my prediction is we’re looking at a lower-leverage reliever, perhaps a low-risk/high-reward flyer, and probably Corey Dickerson.
Honestly? I look at the Blue Jays, and I look at the rest of the division, I look back at the Jays, then I look at the rest of the league, and it’s very hard for me to see the Jays as anything but the best on-paper team in the American League. That’s not to say there isn’t an area or three to improve on (and it’s more than a little bit of an indictment of the Yankees for not figuring their shit out), but in terms of overall balance as well as sheer overwhelming firepower, the only teams that really compare in the AL seem to be the White Sox and Astros. And even then, I like Toronto’s odds.
That said, as always, trade for José Ramírez, you goddamn cowards.
Great commentary!