Just Fuck Me Up, Man
(Plus - Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays (23-23) vs. New York Yankees (28-19) and ALEK MANOAH HYPEPOSTING)
You forget just how shitty it feels to go through a bad losing skid until you’re in the middle of one. Especially when the short period directly preceding the slump was so overwhelmingly positive, for the most part.
Over the series against the Rays, the Blue Jays often did not look like a terrible baseball team, especially offensively, with the standouts being Teoscar Hernández, Marcus Semien, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who now leads the Major Leagues in home runs and fWAR. Unfortunately, this is baseball. And baseball is both absurd and relentlessly, viciously cruel. So the Jays suffered a four-game sweep and are stuck in a six-game losing streak.
The Jays’ soft underbelly in this series has been their pitching staff, held together with bubblegum and sticky tak. Their bullpen had been one of the best in the game in April, has been inconsistent at best in May, with moments of brilliance at times, and at others, has been too awful for even an explosive offence to keep pace with. Injuries have ravaged the Blue Jays’ already-slight pitching depth. The results have been bar none the most agonizing losses of the season so far. Oh hey, speaking of injuries:
Oh yeah. It’s musical accompaniment time.
On Friday? Starter Anthony Kay and subsequent relievers Travis Bergen and A.J. Cole cough up some more, but the offence does enough to keep the game tied late into the game and into extra innings, thanks to some shutdown relief from Jordan Romano, Tim Mayza, Tyler Chatwood, and Joel Payamps. Unfortunately, the Jays’ bats went silent when it came time to score the winning run, and the Rays won the war of attrition, as the depleted, exhausted Jays’ bullpen turned to Jeremy Beasley, who ended up coughing up a grand slam to Francisco Mejía that not even a two-run homer from Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Saturday? Robbie Ray turned in another terrific, walk-less start, but the recently-activated, previously excellent Anthony Castro couldn’t hold the tie. The offence couldn’t hold its end of the bargain either as the Jays lost 3-1.
Sunday? A solid start from Hyun Jin Ryu and a two-run home run in the eighth inning from Randal Grichuk set up Chatwood for the ninth. Chatwood proceeded to give up a run and get knocked out of the game with the bases loaded, only for Travis Bergen to walk three consecutive hitters. Jays lose 6-4.
Finally, on Monday, the Jays got a great bulk relief performance from Ross Stripling and put on a home run derby (with contributions from Teoscar Hernández, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Marcus Semien, and two from Vladdy), navigating around some bad outings from Trent Thornton and Joel Payamps to keep the game tied at seven until the 11th when Anthony Castro and Tim Mayza got blown up. Final score: 14-8 for Tampa Bay.
You also forget just how shitty the discourse (especially online discourse) around the team becomes. Maybe it’s because I am absolutely too Online for my own good, but the Discourse becomes absolutely intolerable during these stretches.
Wanna bitch and moan about Charlie Montoyo? I mean, we could certainly talk about some decisions. Having Santiago Espinal try to drop a fucking bunt in the bottom of the eleventh was idiotic, let alone trying to do so with two strikes. While it’s not like having Espinal and his quickly plummeting .555 OPS swing away was guaranteed to win the Jays the game, I might be tempted to agree this may have cost them the game.
And while Montoyo’s job isn’t to say what the fans want to hear, his persistent upbeat positivity can be a little overly saccharine to read sometimes.
For the record though, I basically agree with him. It’s not like the Jays necessarily played like shit the entire series. Baseball is just dumb. People on social media replying “read the room” to this are probably overestimating how much Montoyo or the Blue Jays give a shit about reading the room when the room is filled with Twitter Reply Guys looking for reasons to be mad.
Otherwise, Twitter repliers’ opinions on Charlie Montoyo mostly feel like a rinse/repeat of the evergreen baseball fan complaint about their favourite team’s manager. That being: “I don’t actually know a fucking thing about what goes into being a baseball manager, but he’s a convenient outlet for my frustrations with the team’s performance so FIRE HIM NOW.”
Not every manager can be as easily judged from the outside looking in as a Tony La Russa or Bobby Valentine. In fact, the impact that managers actually have in ball games is more often than not completely negligible. As analytics take hold of the game for better and for worse, the job of a baseball manager isn’t to be a tobacco-chewing, grumpy chess grandmaster. More often than not, it’s to be a figurehead for the front office or the analytics department, and/or the equivalent of a Human Resources guy.
Brennan Delaney wrote about this at Blue Jays Nation, but aside from the bunting fiasco, it’s hard to say much regarding the last six games has been Montoyo’s fault. When the likes of Tyler Chatwood, Rafael Dolis, and Anthony Castro have been among the team’s best relievers this year, turning to them in high-leverage situations is actually the self-evidently correct decision! It’s not Montoyo’s fault that Chatwood didn’t have it. Charlie can’t magically wave a wand and make Chatwood not have a bad day. He’s not a C. Montgomery Burns-caliber manager (but then again, who is?).
I say this as someone whose opinions on Charlie Montoyo vacillate wildly depending on when the last bunt in a critical situation happened: You don’t know as much about being a manager as you think. Neither do I, for that matter.
Baseball Happens. It is a dumb, ridiculous, fucked-up sport and I’ll see you all tomorrow for the first game against the Yankees. These skids suck so very much, but as the old saying goes, “It’s Still Early”. Much as it might feel like it, it’s not even June yet.
Anyways, in conclusion, Damn Florida to Hell. Can’t wait to move to Buffalo, a Real City in a Real State.
OH SHIT WAIT.
MY BOY SHALL FEAST ON THE FRAUDULENT YANKEES. 139-23 BABY LET’S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-
BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (5) 19 plate appearances, .375/.474/1.125, 7 Weighted Runs Created, 0.39 WPA/LI
Most Vladuable Player.
Honourable Mentions: Teoscar Hernández, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Pitcher: Robbie Ray (4) 7 innings, 27 batters faced, 5 hits, 1 earned run, 0 walks, 3.01 FIP, 69 Game Score v2 (nice), 0.14 WPA/LI
Over his last six starts (37 ⅓ innings), Robbie Ray has faced 149 batters. He’s struck out 49 while only walking two. His K-BB% (Strikeout percentage minus walk percentage) of 31.5 percent over this period is second-best in baseball among qualified starters behind only Gerrit Cole. His walk rate (1.3 percent) is the best in baseball.
Honourable Mentions: Jordan Romano, Ross Stripling
Best Bird Standings
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 5
Marcus Semien- 3
Bo Bichette- 2
Randal Grichuk- 2
Teoscar Hernández- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
George Springer- 1
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 4
Steven Matz- 4
Hyun Jin Ryu- 3
Julian Merryweather- 2
Anthony Castro- 1
Ryan Borucki- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Tuesday, May 25 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Steven Matz vs. Corey Kluber
Matz: Nine starts, 48 innings, 4.69 ERA/3.84 xERA/3.68 xFIP, 24 K%, 7.2 BB%, .250 xBA Against, 38.6 HardHit%
Kluber: Nine starts, 50 ⅓ innings, 2.86 ERA/3.58 xFIP/4.19 xFIP, 24.3 K%, 9.7 BB%, .227 xBA Against, 34.6 HardHit%
Wednesday, May 26 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Alek Manoah vs. Domingo Germán
Manoah: First start of the season. (Triple-A stats: Three starts, 18 innings, 0.50 ERA/2.19 FIP/3.08 xFIP, 40.9 K%, 4.5 BB%, .119 BA Against)
Germán: Eight starts, 44 ⅓ innings, 3.05 ERA/3.71 xERA/3.88 xFIP, 23.5 K%, 4.5 BB%, .239 xBA Against, 35.7 HardHit%
Thursday, May 27 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Robbie Ray vs. Jordan Montgomery
Ray: Eight starts, 47 ⅓ innings, 3.42 ERA/4.20 xERA/3.31 xFIP, 28.5 K%, 5.7 BB%, .252 xBA Against, 49.2 HardHit%
Montgomery: Nine starts, 48 ⅔ innings, 4.07 ERA/3.50 xERA/3.60 xFIP, 26.5 K%, 5.6 BB%, .232 xBA Against, 34.4 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 26-21
Run differential: +24 (189 Runs Scored, 165 Runs Allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 2-4
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 23-12
Last 10 games: 8-2
It is my distinct lack of pleasure to report that the New York Yankees are, once again, good.
While the Yankees have suffered a few of their trademark injuries, with Luke Voit missing most of the early going, Giancarlo Stanton straining his quad, Darren O’Day straining his rotator cuff, Zach Britton and Luis Severino being out for longer stints, and Aaron Hicks needing wrist surgery. That hasn’t stopped New York from surging, mainly off the backs of their pitchers.
In my season preview, I called this team an offensive dreadnought with questionable pitching depth, so it’s strange to see the opposite playing out as the regular season goes on. Yankee starting pitching has been some of the best in baseball, ranking second-best and best in the American League in terms of FIP and xFIP, respectively. It would be tough to argue that Gerrit Cole hasn’t been the best pitcher in the AL, but the likes of Corey Kluber, Jonathan Montgomery, and noted shitheel Domingo Germán have all been solid behind him, with Kluber throwing a no-hitter last week (though I’m pretty sure I’ve thrown a no-hitter in MLB at this point, so take that as you will). Fellow comeback candidate Jameson Taillon doesn’t have the ERA to match the others, but some advanced stats have him pitching about as solidly as the others. The point is, the starting pitching has been good, and the depth hasn’t really needed to be challenged since the first few weeks of the season.
If that wasn’t enough, even with Britton out the Yankees bullpen has been the second-best in MLB behind only the Padres. To my chagrin, Aroldis Chapman has been a Top 3 reliever in baseball, Jonathan Loaisiga has emerged as an excellent reliever, and Chad Green, Luis Cessa, Michael King, and Lucas Luetge pitching more than well enough to make up for the underperformances of Justin Wilson and trade acquisition Wandy Peralta.
This would be a horrifying team to play if their offence wasn’t surprisingly league-average. Aaron Judge and the now-injured Stanton have both been terrific, but aside from solid numbers from Gio Urshela, Gleyber Torres (who hasn’t hit for much power, but has oddly enough been one of the better defensive shortstops in the American League, according to UZR), Tyler Wade of all people, and that motherfucker Kyle Higashioka, there hasn’t been much to brag about. The likes of D.J. LeMahieu and Gary Sánchez have underperformed, with the latter running the risk of losing more and more time as starting catcher to Higashioka.
Meanwhile, Clint Frazier has been absolutely terrible on both ends of the ball, and Brett Gardner hasn’t been much better in the absence of Hicks. Rougned Odor has been a nominal improvement from the last year but has still been terrible, which is both expected and much appreciated.
Best Players Thus Far:
Gerrit Cole, Starting Pitcher, 1.81 ERA/2.03 xERA, 38.5 K%, 3.3 BB%
Aroldis Chapman, Relief Pitcher, 0.47 ERA/1.90 xERA, 52.9 K%, 11.4 BB%
Aaron Judge, Right Field, .208/.407/.571, 173 wRC+
Gleyber Torres, Shortstop, .282/.363/.366, 111 wRC+
Jonathan Loaisiga, Relief Pitcher, 2.49 ERA/2.18 xERA, 22.4 K%, 5.1 BB%
Key Under-Performers:
Clint Frazier, Left Field/Right Field, .171/.292/.319, 77 wRC+
Brett Gardner, Left Field/Center Field, .208/.287/.267, 60 wRC+
Gary Sánchez, Catcher, .181/.312/.352, 91 wRC+
Ceterum autem censeo Florida esse delendam
Hopefully they can pick it up again!