I've Always Said May is the Worst Month (Series Preview: Seattle Mariners (16-19) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (18-17))
We have officially reached the “melodramatically craving death” portion of the Jayslam regular season. During their three-game road series in the carnival of shitfuckery that is Tropicana Field, the vaunted offence of the 2022 Toronto Blue Jays failed to present any other version of themselves. In fact, they have presented the worst version of themselves.
The Jays, 2-7 in this last road trip, no longer just have trouble hitting with runners in scoring position, There was a bit of an offensive outburst in the eighth inning of Saturday’s ball game consummated by home runs from the newly returned Teoscar Hernández and Danny Jansen, but that inning constituted for four of the Jays’ six runs in the entire series. Try as they might, they just could not get anything going to back up some great starting pitching performances. Thus, my hope for the Jays to win a series before the Maple Leafs were bounced from the playoffs goes unfulfilled. At least one of the Flames or Oilers is guaranteed to make it to the conference finals, so at least there’s the small mercy of not having to deal with the most annoying layers of one of those fanbases for a bit.
To be clear, at the moment there is no reason to believe that this is going to be the norm for the entire 2022 season, and even less reason to believe that something drastic like firing a member of the coaching staff is necessary. But again, it doesn’t make it any less fun to watch! And the sooner they buck this trend, the better.
The good news is that the hardest stretch of the Jays’ season is largely over, and the Jays are still right in the thick of it, even if it feels like they maybe shouldn’t be. The next matchups on the docket are a homestand in which they play the thus far middling Seattle Mariners and, as the Jays’ first interleague opponents, the Cincinnati Reds, a team so bad that even when they deliver one of the better collective pitching performances of the season, they still embarrass themselves. The Mariners are no pushover, but at this point in time, the Reds are as easy a win as you get. Now please, I am on my knees begging, string some fucking wins together.
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TRANSACTION NEWS
As expected, Hyun Jin Ryu was activated in time for his Saturday’s start, which went as well as anybody could have possibly hoped, as he was more or less vintage, shorter outing and solo home run given up to Yandy Díaz aside. Less expected on my end was Danny Jansen getting called up the very same day and socking a fucking dinger.
And uh, don’t look now, but through the 2021 and 2022 seasons, in 218 plate appearances, Jansen has slashed .237/.318/.526 with a 126 wRC+. That wRC+ mark is fourth among all big league catchers with at least 200 plate appearances in the same period, behind only Buster Posey, Yasmani Grandal, and Will Smith.
Going down to Buffalo in Ryu and Jansen’s place are Trent Thornton and Tyler Heineman, neither of which should come as much of a surprise. Heineman was later claimed off outright waivers by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Thornton’s 3.52 ERA and improved ability to reduce barrels came at the cost of more walks and fewer strikeouts, his already below-average whiff and chase rates plummeting to nothingness. His role as a multi-inning reliever would also seem to be better served by Ross Stripling, who’s been bumped back to the bullpen with Ryu’s return to the rotation.
Heineman seemed to have usurped Zack Collins as the main backup to Alejandro Kirk while Jansen was out, though I don’t think anyone was convinced that he was anything more than the third-string catcher at best. You could have maybe argued that Collins, who does have options and who’s gone 2-for-25 since the series in Houston, was a better candidate to head down, but there’s very little real distinction between the two catchers and the value they provide. In the meantime, Collins will be a third catcher and occasional designated hitter and lefty bat until he proves he can’t do those things, or until Gabriel Moreno forces the issue. Meanwhile, Heineman will only have to contend with Andrew Knapp, Michael Pérez, and the currently injured Roberto Pérez. So congrats on the increased playing time Tyler! Your dope-ass magic tricks will be sorely missed.
And just because we can’t have positives without negatives:
FUCK.
BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Santiago Espinal (3)
Danny Jansen was so fucking close to picking up another Best Bird, but it didn’t feel right giving it to him with only five plate appearances.
I feel like the Best Bird section is kind of becoming the Santiago Espinal Dickriding Hour, maybe to counterbalance how sceptical I was of him going into the season. After all, it’s not like he’s been the best second baseman in the American League according to fWAR.
Holy shit.
Anyways, Espy was real good, Jansen was awesome, Tapia had a good series overall even taking his awful Saturday into account, and Vinny Capra had his first hit. Everyone else kinda sucked. I will not be talking about the Toronto Blue Jays offence anymore.
Honourable Mentions: Danny Jansen, Raimel Tapia
Pitcher: Kevin Gausman (4)
Alek Manoah had a real shot at this too, but Gausman already had one close decision stolen from him this season and was also just that much more dominant against the Rays, so he will move into a tie with Manoah atop the leaderboard.
Honourable Mentions: Alek Manoah, Hyun Jin Ryu
Best Bird Standings:
Hitters:
Santiago Espinal- 3
George Springer- 2
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 2
Alejandro Kirk- 1
Bo Bichette- 1
Zack Collins - 1
Danny Jansen- 1
Pitchers:
Kevin Gausman- 4
Alek Manoah- 4
Yusei Kikuchi- 2
Jordan Romano- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Monday, May 16, (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST):
Chris Flexen (4.24 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 15.7 K%, 7.1 BB%, 35.3 HardContact%)
Yusei Kikuchi (4.15 ERA, 4.99 FIP, 23.7 K%, 14.9 BB%, 30.7 HardContact%)
Tuesday, May 16, (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST):
Logan Gilbert (2.13 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 27.5 K%, 9.2 BB%, 29.4 HardContact%)
José Berríos (5.82 ERA, 5.13 FIP, 15.3 K%, 7.0 BB%, 38.1 HardContact%)
Wednesday, May 17, (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST):
Marco Gonzales (3.38 ERA, 6.29 FIP, 15.0 K%, 8.8 BB%, 31.7 HardContact%)
Kevin Gausman (2.40 ERA, 0.84 FIP, 30.9 K%, 1.1 BB%, 28.0 HardContact%)
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 17-18
Last 10 games: 4-6
So has Roenis Elías just perpetually been on standby for the Mariners since 2014? It sure feels that way.
Much was made of the Seattle Mariners and their championing of the “fun differential” in 2021, and they’ve largely rolled out the same team in 2022, with Eugenio Suárez, Old Friend Robbie Ray, Adam Frazier, and Jesse Winker joining the core of Ty France, J.P. Crawford, Mitch Haniger, and Logan Gilbert, as well as young future stars Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodríguez, and now starting pitcher George Kirby. And while it hasn’t been a great start for the M’s as they’ve fallen well behind the surging Astros and Angels, they’ve at least hung in there, posting strong bullpen results and middling numbers from their lineup and starting rotation.
Winker’s gotten off to a slow start, being forced into much more time in the outfield than you would like, and Jarred Kelenic played poorly enough to earn a demotion to Triple-A Tacoma. Ditto Rodríguez, though he saved himself from Tacoma by picking it up as of late. Crawford and France have spearheaded the offence, with Suárez, Rodríguez, and Frazier ably supporting them, though Haniger has unfortunately missed a lot of time to injury, only getting into nine games.
On the pitching side of things, Robbie Ray has seen a downturn in his numbers from his stellar 2021, at least partially owing to a downturn in his fastball velocity. There has been an uptick in his velocity recently, the results haven’t translated, as the walk and barrel rates have climbed up along with the strikeouts. Hard-throwing Logan Gilbert has emerged as perhaps the Mariners’ best pitcher though, winning April American League Pitcher of the Month off the strength of his fastball, which he is fearless about just pounding the zone with.
Kirby has impressed in his first couple of starts in the Majors, replacing Canadian Matt Brash, who impressed with his stuff but had trouble finding the strike zone. Chris Flexen has been about as quietly okay as expected, while Marco Gonzales’ 3.38 ERA belies some UGLY peripherals. As for the bullpen, which will be short one valiant soul Doing His Own Research in Drew Steckenrider, it’s gotten some excellent contributions from Erik Swanson and his riding four-seamer has looked elite, though he’s out with elbow inflammation at the moment. Paul Sewald has been excellent, as has Andrés Muñoz, who fills the zone with a slider that, despite its below-average movement, racks up strikes and weak contact. He also throws a rising, 100 mile per hour rising fastball. Just to mix things up. Diego Castillo, Sergio Romo, Anthony Misiewicz, Wyatt Mills, and someone actually named Penn Murfee form a solid supporting core.
Now Blue Jays: Please, please, take all these incredibly talented pitchers and fuck them all up. Please. It’s easy. Just do it. Please.
Best (Healthy) Players in the Series:
J.P. Crawford, Shortstop, .322/.406/.500, 175 wRC+
Ty France, First Base, .331/.401/.475, 168 wRC+
Eugenio Suárez, Third Base, .203/.310/.415, 122 wRC+
Logan Gilbert, Starting Pitcher, 2.13 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 27.5 K%, 9.2 BB%, 29.4 HardContact%
Julio Rodríguez, Center Field, .264/.328/.368, 113 wRC+
Let’s hope they can win!