It's Just a 3-4 West Coast Road Trip! It's Still Good! It's Still Good! (Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays (63-54) vs. Washington Nationals (50-68))
Well, that was almost really fucking bad, eh? It’s still fine though. We’re fine.
A seemingly inexplicable lack of an ability to hit late in games. Failing to capitalize with runners in scoring positions. The Jays losing games they were leading going into the seventh inning. The bullpen finding new and unexpected ways to implode. Bo Bichette is being made to play shortstop with two shattered shins and picking up a platinum sombrero. An extremely, extremely controversial call at home plate in extra innings that enraged me even as someone who was only following along with Gameday. All this and more were present in the Jays’ series in Seattle, which, let’s be honest, they probably should have won.
While the Blue Jays, bar Teoscar Hernández, Robbie Ray, Steven Matz, and a handful of others, haven’t done themselves any favours, the good news is that they’ll have an opportunity to pick themselves up in DC against the post-Trade Deadline Washington Nationals. Who are so, SO bad. This is a team that won the World Series two years ago, and they are so unbelievably terrible, I almost can’t believe it.
And one of those two games against the Washington “now home to Patrick Murphy” Nationals will be broadcast to the world on YouTube! Which is a great time if you’re one of the members of MLB’s most coveted demographic: People who enjoy the feeling of being lobotomized without anaesthetic.
The only legitimate reason I can think of to watch the game on YouTube beyond a combination of masochism and intense self-loathing is the possible debut of super utility prospect Otto López, which is, indeed exciting! Assuming it’s happening!
Translation: I’ve just received word that Dominican Otto López was called up to the Majors by the Blue Jays.
Before we get into the upcoming two-game, series against the Washington “2-17 since the All-Star Break” Nationals, humour me as I plead for engagement. If you like what Jayslam is doing, please consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or an enemy! I’m happy with either.
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BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Teoscar Hernández (2) 12 plate appearances, .500/.500/.893, 15 total bases, 6 Weighted Runs Created, 0.25 Win Probability Added, 0.41 WPA/LI
Since getting recalled from Triple-A during the 2019 season, Teoscar Hernández has slashed .386/.341/.545 with a 140 wRC+, good for 11th in MLB over that span among qualified players. And all it took to get him was one (1) heavily-used Francisco Liriano.
Bonus points to Corey “I Can’t Believe the Jays Got Me and Adam Cimber for Joe Panik” Dickerson, who hit his first home run as a Blue Jay. Santiago Espinal also had a nice series, as did Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who continues to work his way out of his recent struggles.
Honourable Mentions: Corey Dickerson, Santiago Espinal
Pitcher: Robbie Ray (10) 7 innings, 25 batters faced, 5 hits, 2 earned runs, 8 strikeouts, 1 walk, 3.18 FIP, 0.20 Win Probability Added, 0.21 WPA/LI
Ray was once again great against the Mariners, but the Jays’ bats refused to back him up. Steven Matz, who now likely finds his spot as the Jays’ fifth starter solidified, with Ross Stripling going on the IL, also had himself a solid start in the Jays’ win on Sunday. So did Hyun Jin Ryu, though his ERA won’t end up reflecting that. I also mention Ryu here because of this very cool little video released by the Jays.
Honourable Mentions: Steven Matz, Hyun Jin Ryu
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 11
George Springer- 7
Bo Bichette- 6
Marcus Semien- 5
Teoscar Hernández- 2
Joe Panik- 2 (now on the Miami Marlins)
Randal Grichuk- 2
Santiago Espinal- 1
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1 (10-day IL)
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 10
Hyun Jin Ryu- 8
Alek Manoah- 6
Ross Stripling- 4 (10-day IL)
Steven Matz- 4
Julian Merryweather- 2 (60-day IL)
Trevor Richards- 1
Anthony Kay- 1 (Triple-A)
Anthony Castro- 1 (10-day IL)
Ryan Borucki- 1 (Triple-A)
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Tuesday, August 17 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Alek Manoah vs. Erick Fedde
Manoah: 11 games, 59 innings, 2.59 ERA/3.86 FIP/3.91 xFIP, 29.3 K%, 8.7 BB%, .181 BA Against/.198 xBA Against, 34.5 HardHit%
Fedde: 19 games, 91 ⅓ innings, 5.12 ERA/4.50 FIP/4.16 xFIP, 20.8 K%, 9.5 BB%, .255 BA Against/.267 xBA Against, 41.2 HardHit%
Wednesday, August 18 (4 p.m. EST/2 p.m. MST): José Berríos vs. Josiah Gray
Berríos: 23 games, 138 innings, 3.52 ERA/3.58 FIP/3.78 xFIP, 25.2 K%, 6.6 BB%, .219 BA Against/.234 xBA Against, 37.3 HardHit%
Gray: Five games (four starts), 24 innings, 4.13 ERA/6.60 FIP/4.32 xFIP, 30.7 K%, 8.9 BB%, .217 BA Against/.185 xBA Against, 31.1 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 53-65
Run differential: -57 (512 Runs, 569 Runs Allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 1-1
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 41-56
Last 10 games: 1-9
During my ill-fated season preview, I called the Washington Nationals finishing last in the National League East, even under the lowly Miami Marlins. So far, I’ve been proven right with the Nationals sitting half a game behind the Fish. Even so, it’s kind of a gut punch to see Washington bottom out so severely only two seasons after winning a World Series.
Only a handful of players remain from that championship team. They are rightfielder Juan Soto, one of the top three best pure hitters in the game and an utterly terrifying generational talent, and The Rest, who can mostly generously be described as “sub-1.0 WAR players”. Starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg has been cursed with recurring severe injuries, barely pitching in 2021. Fellow starter Patrick Corbin hasn’t been the same since his stellar performance in the 2019 postseason. Centerfielder Víctor Robles’ inability to hit for power or get on base have both caught up to him. Beloved veteran outfielder Gerardo Parra has returned after an underwhelming stint in Japan and is now exclusively a light-hitting backup outfielder. Washington mainstay Ryan Zimmermann is now a below-league average bench bat. Third baseman Carter Kieboom is still kicking around, only now jumping on a starting job with the team. Outfielder Andrew Stevenson, utility infielder Adrián Sánchez, starting pitchers Erick Fedde and Joe Ross, relief pitchers Austin Voth, Wander Suero, Tanner Rainey round out the group. Everyone else is new, either a placeholder, a young upstart, or an immoveable veteran contract.
Jettisoned in the culling of the 2019 team were four of the Nationals’ best hitters, in Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Josh Harrison, and Yan Gomes. After Soto, who is, again, a God on Earth, their only hitters mustering a wRC+ at league-average or better are Yadiel Hernández (108), a 33-year-old Cuban rookie who’s put together a solid season thanks to some BABIP luck and despite poor defence, and Josh Bell (100). Bell has nonetheless been a disappointment after signing as a reclamation project in the offseason, while still improving on a miserable 2020.
In trading away all those players as well as pitchers Max Scherzer (obviously one of the best on his planet), Jon Lester, Daniel Hudson, and Brad Hand, the Nationals obviously got themselves a prospect haul for the future, some of which are ready to make an impact at the big league level to join infielders Kieboom and Luis García. Catchers Keibert Ruiz, Tres Barrera and Old Friend Riley Adams will all look to carve out a space for themselves on a rebuilding team. The biggest get of all might end up being starting pitcher Josiah Gray, who the NAtionals got back in the Scherzer/Turner trade, and who’s gotten rave reviews from prospect evaluators, and ranks 19th on Fangraphs’ Top Prospects list.
With all that said, this seems like a good group for a superior team looking to blast its way into a playoff spot to beat the shit out of. *COUGH*.
Best Players:
Juan Soto, Right Field, .302/.437/.506, 149 wRC+
Kyle Finnegan, Relief Pitcher, 3.11 ERA/4.49 xFIP, 23.2 K%, 10.8 BB%
Yadiel Hernández, Outfielder, .296/.359/.417, 108 wRC+
Paolo Espino, Starting Pitcher, 4.16 ERA/4.79 xFIP, 17.5 K%, 4.7 BB%
Josiah Gray, Starting Pitcher, 2.81 ERA/4.57 xFIP, 27.3 K%, 6.1 BB%
Under-Performers:
Patrick Corbin, Starting Pitcher, 6.04 ERA/4.45 xFIP, 18.1 K%, 7.4 BB%
Víctor Robles, Center Field, .209/.316/.308, 72 wRC+
Josh Bell, First Base, .241/.305/.457, 100 wRC+