(Trade stuff will be talked about in a post later today, after the Deadline)
It is September 29, 2019, at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario.
The Toronto Blue Jays are playing the final game of the regular season. It’s been a miserable year for the rebuilding Jays, with among the few bright spots being the Major League debuts of the Large Adult Sons: Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and of course, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Neither Guerrero nor Bichette are playing today. Nor is the injured second baseman-turned-leftfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Instead, the Jays are running a patchwork lineup topped by free-swinging left fielder Teoscar Hernández (who had been optioned earlier in the year, but has surged since being called back up), Biggio at second base, underperforming right fielder Randal Grichuk, similarly underperforming first baseman of the future(?) Rowdy Tellez at DH, first baseman, clubhouse leader, and fan favourite Justin Smoak (who is not playing well, but was one of the few good players in the last few seasons of painful Blue Jays baseball, and now plays his last game as a Toronto Blue Jay), Breyvic Valera at third base, former number one Blue Jays prospect Richard Ureña at shortstop, center fielder Jonathan Davis, and catcher Luke Maile. The starting pitcher is the much-maligned Clay Bucholz, who has been both hurt and atrocious with the Blue Jays.
Hernández and Smoak jump on Tampa Bay Rays starter Blake Snell and long reliever Yonny Chirinos, driving in three runs each. The light-hitting Valera contributes a solo shot, with two RBI on the day. Bucholz is surprisingly not terrible, throwing five innings of one-run ball, and aside from fringe prospect Jordan Romano getting knocked around for two runs, the relief sequence of Wilmer Font, Jason Adam, and Ryan Tepera shut down the Rays. The Toronto Blue Jays beat Tampa Bay 8-3, and finish the season 67-95.
Nobody at this game knows it, but this will be the last regular season game played in Toronto for 670 days.
The Toronto Blue Jays will return to Toronto today. Friday, July 30, 2021. Of the players on that September 29, 2019 Blue Jays team, the only ones still kicking around in the Jays’ system are Bichette, Biggio, Guerrero, Gurriel, Hernández, Grichuk, Romano (now a terrific reliever when he’s on), Ryan Borucki (now a relief pitcher), Jonathan Davis (currently in Triple-A), Danny Jansen, Anthony Kay (currently in Triple-A, part of the return for Marcus Stroman, who was dealt in 2019), Elvis Luciano (a Rule 5 pick, currently in Double-A), Tim Mayza, Reese McGuire, Trent Thornton, and Breyvic Valera somehow. Several current Blue Jays have never once played in Toronto.
I don’t live in Toronto and I’m not a patriotic person to any extent, but there’s still something special about the Jays coming back to Canada. Beyond the fact that it’s now easier to watch games in person (something that you best believe I’m hoping to take advantage of as soon as humanly and financially possible), it feels like the culmination of a long, long period of character development that the young, loveable Jays have gone through.
Don’t get me wrong: These are flesh-and-blood human beings. This is not a sports anime. As much as narratives are some of the best parts of sports, the reality is that Major League Baseball is a phenomenally exploitative value and profit extraction machine. Beyond that, regular seasons are exhausting, even for players that aren’t forced to relocate to Buffalo or fucking North Goddamn Florida. The last 159 games of essentially being a glorified travel team have surely been rough. But finally having a place that they can finally call home and a more tangible connection to the community that (hopefully) rallies behind them feels like something that should spur this phenomenally promising Blue Jays team on in this season and the ones that follow. That’s what this incredibly earnest, wonderful piece from Bo Bichette in The Player’s Tribune would seem to indicate as well, even if he does mention he was in high school when the Bautista Bat Flip happened, rudely causing me to disassociate a little bit, but it’s fine.
I don’t want to predict that this will give the 2021 Blue Jays a shot in the arm en route to a playoff run, because that’s too much to call with any degree of certainty, to say the least. But this definitely feels like a welcome turning point, regardless of how the rest of the season goes. The sojourn down south of the border was all good fun, but it’s time for the birds to come home to roost. Welcome home, boys.
Are those the white panel hats I see? Yes please!
Now trade for somebody. Do it. Please, I am on my knees, begging you to trade for somebody.
(Update: They traded for somebody.)
Before we get into the upcoming three-game homecoming series against the Kansas City Royals, humour me as I plead for engagement. If you like what Jayslam is doing, please consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or an enemy! I’m happy with either.
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BEST BIRDS
Hitter: George Springer (4) 18 plate appearances, .286/.444/.643, 9 total bases, 4 Weighted Runs Created, 0.16 Win Probability Added, 0.21 WPA/LI
Stop me if you’ve heard this one, but George Springer plays for the Toronto Blue Jays. :)
Honourable mention goes to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the La Gente del Barrio jacket.
Honourable Mentions: Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Pitcher: Hyun Jin Ryu (7) 6 innings, 23 batters faced, 2 hits, 0 earned runs, 5 strikeouts, 0 walks, 1.99 FIP, 0.17 Win Probability Added, 0.29 WPA/LI
On Thursday, Ryu got some of the toughest news a person can get before going out to do their job, and still excelled, absolutely shutting down the Red Sox for six innings, turning in a brilliant outing.
Honourable Mentions: Robbie Ray, Jordan Romano
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 11
Bo Bichette- 6
Marcus Semien- 5
George Springer- 4
Joe Panik- 2 (now on the Miami Marlins)
Randal Grichuk- 2
Santiago Espinal- 1
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
Teoscar Hernández- 1
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 8
Hyun Jin Ryu- 7
Ross Stripling- 4
Alek Manoah- 4 (10-day IL)
Steven Matz- 4
Julian Merryweather- 2 (60-day IL)
Trevor Richards- 1
Anthony Kay- 1
Anthony Castro- 1 (10-day IL)
Ryan Borucki- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Friday, July 30 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Daniel Lynch vs. Ross Stripling
Lynch: Four games, 16 innings, 7.88 ERA/3.53 FIP/4.28 xFIP, 14.9 K%, 6.8 BB%, .333 BA Against/.333 xBA Against, 48.3 HardHit%
Stripling: 17 games (16 starts), 4.84 ERA/4.99 FIP/4.34 xFIP, 24.7 K%, 7.4 BB%, .249 BA Against/.243 xBA Against, 40.6 HardHit%
Saturday, July 31 (3 p.m. EST/1 p.m. MST): Mike Minor vs. Alek Manoah (presumptive)
Minor: 21 games, 118 ⅓ innings, 5.32 ERA/4.09 FIP/4.34 xFIP, 23.0 K%, 7.2 BB%, .251 BA Against/.241 xBA Against, 36.3 HardHit%
Manoah: Eight games, 40 ⅓ innings, 2.90 ERA/4.26 FIP/3.99 xFIP, 31.0 K%, 8.9 BB%, .188 BA Average/.184 xBA Against, 34 HardHit%
Sunday, August 1 (1 p.m. EST/11 a.m. MST): Brad Keller vs. José Berríos (!!!) (presumptive)
Keller: 21 games, 108 ⅔ innings, 5.55 ERA/4.72 FIP/4.57 xFIP, 18.6 K%, 10.4 BB%, .292 BA Against/.291 xBA Against, 44.7 HardHit%
Berríos: 20 games, 121 ⅔ innings, 3.48 ERA/3.57 FIP/3.58 xFIP, 25.7 K%, 6.5 BB%, .211 BA Against/.238 xBA Against, 37.7 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 42-59
Run differential: -82 (423 Runs, 505 Runs Allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 3-1
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 36-51
Last 10 games: 8-2
When last we discussed the Kansas City Royals way back in April, the Royals were playing like upstarts, and ended up taking three of four games from the Jays. As it turns out, they’ve ended up being a minor case study on why MLB teams play 162 games. While not in the same category as some of the worst teams in baseball, the Royals are, in fact quite, quite bad.
At the time of writing, Kansas City has not yet blown its brains out by trading the likes of Whit Merrifield and Carlos Santana yet, but they have traded starting pitcher Danny Duffy to the Dodgers, and they’ll likely be further depleted once play kicks off today. As a wise man once put it, “that’s good eatin’”.
The only three above-average offensive players on the Royals have been at or above average in terms of Weighted Runs Created Plus, those being Santana (107), All-Star catcher Salvador Pérez (118), and outfielder Andrew Benintendi (100), with middle infielders Nicky Lopez and Whit Merrifield hovering just below average. Shortstop Adalberto Mondesí has missed most of the year, Michael A. Taylor has plummeted back to Earth, Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier have both disappointed tremendously. With Duffy off to LA and Brady Singer hurt, the rotation has gotten middling-at-best production from veteran lefty Mike Minor, Brad Keller, Kris Bubic, and rookie Daniel Lynch. Their bullpen has been one of the worst in the game, as Scott Barlow and Greg Holland have had to make up for the poor performance of old mainstays like Greg Holland and Wade Davis.
Best Players:
Nicky Lopez, Shortstop, .277/.358/.342, 98 wRC+
Whit Merrifield, Second Base, .271/.317/.402, 94 wRC+
Salvador Pérez, Catcher .278/.307/.508, 118 wRC+
Carlos Santana, First Base .233/.347/.404, 107 wRC+
Scott Barlow, Relief Pitcher 2.70 ERA/3.40 xFIP, 31.0 K%, 10.0 BB%
Key Under-Performers:
Jorge Soler, Right Field/Designated Hitter, .192/.291/.375, 83 wRC+
Hunter Dozier, Third Base/Right Field, .195/.274/.354, 72 wRC+
Greg Holland, Relief Pitcher, 4.87 ERA/4.49 xFIP, 23.6 K%, 11.0 BB%