In the Land of the Plague Rats (Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays (6-4) vs. Boston Red Sox (5-5))
Blue Jays take two of three games at home against Oakland Athletics, Hyun Jin Ryu placed on IL with left forearm inflammation, Ryan Borucki recalled
Aside from the 12-6 loss to the Rangers and the 4-0 loss to the Yankees, the 2022 Toronto Blue Jays have played extremely close games, never winning or losing by more than three runs. They’ve scored 42 runs while conceding 45, good for an average of 4.2 runs per game while conceding an average of 4.5 (that goes up to 4.5 and 3.6, respectively, when you exclude the two aforementioned losses). While the The bizarrely low run differential (-3) is largely owing to not only those outlier losses, but both an inconsistent starting pitching staff and an offence that has yet to fire on all cylinders yet and has suffered the temporary loss of both Teoscar Hernández and the surging Danny Jansen. All told, it’s been a solid, if highly imperfect, run of play for the Jays amidst a meat grinder of an early going in this regular season. It’s not about to get easier though, with a road trip in Boston and Houston upcoming, followed by a homestand with… Boston and Houston. Also, the New York Yankees. Though it helps that a few notable players on the Red Sox and Yankees will be missing key members of the team in Toronto, as they will be busy doing their own research on where their own critical thinking skills went.
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TRANSACTION NEWS
On Sunday, the Blue Jays put starting pitcher Hyun Jin Ryu on the 10-day IL with left forearm tightness, one day after an awful start against the Oakland A’s that saw him give up five earned runs in only four innings. While a catastrophic performance by umpire Jeff Nelson is at least partly to blame, as it forced him to throw inside the strike zone where his non-remarkable stuff becomes easier to tee off on, his velocity was down on every single one of his pitches, and his spin rate was down on every one of his pitches save for his changeup. Ryu had begun experiencing pain while warming up, and the discomfort continued into the game.
Ryu will miss at least two starts, and his spot in the rotation will be taken over by Ross Stripling for now. Taking Ryu’s spot on the active roster is lefty reliever Ryan Borucki, making it back from a hamstring injury that delayed his start to the season. Ryu will not throw for several days as the Blue Jays evaluate his status.
Ryu’s underperformance, largely a cause of the aforementioned slipping command of his pitches, has been a worrying trend since last season, and it’s become clear that he can no longer be seen as this team’s ace. And that’s fine, they don’t really need him to be. José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, and Alek Manoah all have the potential to assume that role, for whatever it’s worth. However, a healthy, effective Ryu could help shore up some desperately-needed depth for the starting rotation, even if he’ll never be as dominant as he was in 2020. Yusei Kikuchi is a question mark with upside and Stripling is a decent sixth starter option, but beyond them, Nate Pearson is Nate Pearson, and the Jays don’t have any super highly-regarded prospects in Triple-A (with all due respect to Thomas Hatch and Bowden Francis) anywhere near the level of 2021 Alek Manoah who can be relied upon to step in for anything more than an emergency spot start.
Can we assume this injury has anything to do with Ryu looking very bad over his last dozen or so starts? Maybe? It’s tough to say for sure, but while injuries are nothing to be happy about, it’s at least a little bit encouraging to have something to point to if only to say “oh good, so there’s a cause and he’s not just broken forever.” While 2020-level Ryu would be optimal, getting him to the level of even an effective innings-eating fifth starter would be a huge help for this team, not just because the dynamic duo of Ryu and Manoah is so unbearably wholesome that I need as much of it happening at any point as much as possible.
BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Zack Collins (1) 12 plate appearances, .545/.583/1.000, 5 Weighted Runs Created, 0.39 Win Probability Added, 0.39 WPA/LI
Collins must have heard me shit on him last series post, because he unloaded on Oakland’s admittedly weak pitching, suddenly becoming a power-hitting force at the bottom of the lineup and driving in some key runs. Thus, he becomes this year’s first recipient of the “Double-Take Award”, unofficially named the “Joe Panik Memorial Trophy” for the player that will likely look the most out of place in the standings come season’s end.
Honourable Mentions: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Matt Chapman
Pitcher: Alek Manoah (2) 6 innings, 24 batters faced, 4 hits, 2 earned runs, 6 strikeouts, 2 walks, 1 home run, 0.14 Win Probability Added, 0.10 WPA/LI
Ross Stripling looked strong in four innings of shutout ball in what was at the time thought to be a spot start to give Ryu and Kikuchi more rest, but I have to give it once again to Manoah for a second straight series. A home run to Stephen Vogt, a player I could have sworn was a coach now, was his only real blemish on the afternoon, as he limited walks while carving up the A’s admittedly weak lineup.
Honourable Mentions: Ross Stripling, Jordan Romano
Best Bird Standings:
Hitters:
Zack Collins - 1
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 1
Danny Jansen- 1
Pitchers:
Alek Manoah- 2
Jordan Romano- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
(Stats are from 2021-22)
Tuesday, April 18, (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST):
Yusei Kikuchi (4.43 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 24.2 K%, 9.4 BB%, 48.2 Groundball%)
Nathan Eovaldi (3.79 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 25.8 K%, 4.6 BB%, 41.9 Groundball%)
Wednesday, April 19, (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST):
José Berríos (3.74 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 25.7 K%, 6.2 BB%, 42.5 Groundball%)
Nick Pivetta (4.76 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 26.0 K%, 10.1 BB%, 37.6 Groundball%)
Thursday, April 20, (1:30 p.m. EST/11:30 a.m. MST)
Kevin Gausman (2.89 ERA, 2.87 FIP, 29.4 K%, 6.1 BB%, 41.3 Groundball%)
Tanner Houck (3.46 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 29.1 K%, 8.4 BB%, 46.9 Groundball%)
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 5-5 (45 runs scored, 43 runs allowed)
Like the Yankees, the Red Sox didn’t improve dramatically over their 2021 edition, save for the addition of Trevor Story, who moves to second base after spending his entire Rockies tenure at shortstop. This is to accommodate Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers at their respective positions on the left side of the infield, as they remain the offensive centrepieces in a potent Boston lineup that also includes Story, Enrique Hernández, J.D. Martinez, and Alex Verdugo. The pitching staff is a bit more of a question mark, especially the starting pitching. Nathan Eovaldi is a rock-solid pitcher at the top of the rotation, but Chris Sale is injured, routinely unhealthy, and doing his own research. Young fellow researcher Tanner Houck and veteran free agent signing Michael Wacha are off to excellent starts, but Nick Pivetta and Rich Hill both have ERAs north of 7, with Pivetta especially looking concerning.
While this figures to be a strong team, at least on paper, the current story around the Red Sox is their inability to stay COVID-free. Not only will the team be missing at least Houck when they come to Toronto later this month, the team is currently suffering a minor outbreak that has cost them their top two catchers, Christian Vázquez and Kevin Plawecki. Must suck to have scientific illiteracy play such a key role in deciding the starting lineups day-to-day makeup. Couldn’t be us! Could! Not! Be! Us!
Best Players (2021-22 Stats):
(Stats as of April 17, 2022)
Nathan Eovaldi, Starting Pitcher, 3.79 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 25.8 K%, 4.6 BB%, 41.9 Groundball%
Xander Bogaerts, Shortstop, .295/.368/.491, 130 wRC+
Rafael Devers, Third Base, .285/.352/.542, 137 wRC+
Enrique Hernández, Super Utility, .245/.333/.445, 109 wRC+
Trevor Story, Shortstop/Second Base, .251/.327/.464, 98 wRC+