I'm the Joker, Baby. (Series Preview: Detroit Tigers (58-65) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (63-56))
Well. That wasn’t very fun.
I don’t think it’s all that revisionist to say the Jays would’ve liked to return to the Rogers Centre on the highest possible note. With George Springer once again going on the IL for the foreseeable future (kill me) you could even say a strong showing against the Nationals was imperative. And with 11 runs scored in two games, one would think they accomplished that. And then the starting pitching and high-leverage relief would slap one across the face to get one’s attention, pour kerosene on themselves, and run screaming into a burning building.
I hope the metaphor got across. The point is I hate myself and I want to die.
In the lowest point of morose silence after Wednesday’s gut-punch of a loss, in which back-to-back home runs from Corey Dickerson and Marcus Semien (who both had an excellent series, by the way) to put the Jays ahead only for Brad Hand (in a… Let’s be charitable and say “questionable” move to bring him into a high leverage situation) to promptly gift wrap the lead right back, I considered getting a head start on offseason posting. After my brain cell kicked in and I realized that giving up on the season with the Jays 4.5 games out of a playoff spot with 43 to go is still ridiculously hyperbolic, I came back feeling a little better about my life choices. However, while the Jays aren’t quite at the point where a bad series could doom them, every series they do lose drags them closer to that point.
So as they limp back to the Rogers Centre for the second homestand in Toronto, the Jays can’t afford to fuck around anymore. Even if the Tigers aren’t as bad as some (myself included) thought they might be, the Jays need to beat them. The White Sox are terrifying, but Toronto isn’t in a position where they can afford to be wowed. The Fraudulent Red Sox (who the Jays somehow gained half a game on) and Mariners may be bad, and the Athletics may be beatable, but they’re not going to take themselves out of the race for the Jays’ benefit. This is a team that can and should make the playoffs, but those other teams do not give a shit about run differential, as much as that stat is haunting my nightmares at this point. The old sports cliche of “focus on controlling what you can control” is applicable here. Beat the teams you’re supposed to beat, for Christ’s sake. And beat those other fuckers too. Lest the JokerJay return.
Also, regarding the bullpen.
While Rafael Dolis never got things on track this year, thus making his DFA pretty much entirely justifiable.
It is time once again to call Nate Pearson up.
Before we get into the upcoming two-game, series against the Detroit Tigers, humour me as I plead for engagement. If you like what Jayslam is doing, please consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or an enemy! I’m happy with either.
Likewise, if you’ve been enjoying Jayslam, want to see more of it, or want to support its continued existence, consider getting a paid subscription! Paid ones get you access to exclusive posts such as the podcast portions my pre-season predictions (which are, as always, not looking so good), as well as to the comments section.
BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Teoscar Hernández (3) 9 plate appearances, .500/.556/1.375, 11 total bases, 4 Weighted Runs Created, 0.11 Win Probability Added, 0.34 WPA/LI
Hernández finally got past the near-insurmountable hurdle that is Joe Panik’s Best Bird total with another excellent series. He’s currently sitting on a four-game homer streak. 65+ home runs for the season still in play???
Honourable Mentions: Marcus Semien, Corey Dickerson
Pitcher: José Berríos (1) 5 innings, 22 batters faced, 5 hits, 2 earned runs, 3 strikeouts, 3 walks, 6.37 FIP, -0.05 Win Probability Added, 0.00 WPA/LI
Berríos did not have his best stuff, and one could argue that Trevor Richards (who had a solid eighth inning on Wednesday) and Conner Overton (who threw a couple of scoreless innings of garbage time on Tuesday) deserved it more. I went with La Máquina because, after a rough first inning, he still managed to gut out four more innings, shutting down the Nationals and keeping things close despite clearly gutting it out.
Honourable Mentions: Trevor Richards, Conner Overton
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 11
George Springer- 7
Bo Bichette- 6
Marcus Semien- 5
Teoscar Hernández- 3
Joe Panik- 2 (now on the Miami Marlins)
Randal Grichuk- 2
Santiago Espinal- 1
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1 (10-day IL)
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 10
Hyun Jin Ryu- 8
Alek Manoah- 6
Ross Stripling- 4 (10-day IL)
Steven Matz- 4
Julian Merryweather- 2 (60-day IL)
Trevor Richards- 1
Anthony Kay- 1 (Triple-A)
Anthony Castro- 1 (10-day IL)
Ryan Borucki- 1 (Triple-A)
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Friday, August 20 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Tyler Alexander vs. Robbie Ray
Alexander:
Ray:
Saturday, August 21 (3 p.m. EST/1 p.m. MST): Wily Peralta vs. Hyun Jin Ryu
Peralta:
Ryu:
Sunday, August 22 (1 p.m. EST/11 a.m. MST): Drew Hutchison (!!!) vs. Steven Matz
Hutchison:
Matz:
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 55-68
Run differential: -63 (541 runs scored, 604 runs allowed)
Last 10 games: 4-6
The Detroit Tigers had about as bad a start to the season as you can have, going 10-24 through May 7. I’m not entirely sure how the turnaround happened (“A.J. Hinch is a warlock” is my current theory), but since then, the Tigers have gone 48-40, the best team in the AL Central (not named the Chicago White Sox) in that span. Are they a playoff contender? Not at all. Are they a good team? No, but they’re not as terrible as, say, the Orioles, Diamondbacks, or Pirates. They’re closer to just kind of below-average at best. Their batting is mediocre, their pitching is overall fairly bad, and they’re the worst defensive team in the Majors according to both DRS and UZR.
Does that make them a pushover? Apparently not. If anything, this is a massive, massive trap series, even if the Jays should be heavily favoured.
The starting rotation has been hurt by the loss of Spencer Turnbull, who only made 9 starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery. In his absence, young pitchers Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal have more than stepped up, though Matt Manning is taking more time to get settled into the Major League rotation. Matt Boyd has surprisingly been their best starter but has missed a big chunk of time to injury. Otherwise, the Tigers have turned to a combination of Tyler Alexander and veterans Wily Peralta (whose existence I had completely forgotten about), old friend Drew Hutchison, and the injured José Ureña, with only Peralta getting better than average results at this point. Shoutout to Hutchison, who’s scratched and clawed his way back to the Majors and will start against his old team on Sunday.
The offence, as I mentioned, has been okay at best, with Rule 5 pick Akil Baddoo, Jeimer Candelario, Robbie Grossman, and injured catchers Jake Rogers and Eric Haase clustered among the team’s best, with wRC+ over 110. Baddoo (also unique among ballplayers thanks to his Ghanaian and Trinidadian heritage) especially has been a great story, getting off to an absolutely beyond torrid start. He’s cooled down since then but has still averaged out to a solid MLB outfielder, thanks to a good eye, excellent speed, and just a little bit of a lot of good batted ball luck.
The biggest story regarding the Tigers’ offence recently, however, has been Miguel Cabrera, who is one dinger away from 500 career home runs. I’m thrilled that he’s going to get to that benchmark, even if he doesn’t have a place on any team not named the Detroit Tigers. Now to hope that his shambling corpse waits a few days so we don’t have to watch him celebrate in Toronto please, for the love of god.
Best Players:
Casey Mize, Starting Pitcher, 3.69 ERA/4.39 xFIP, 19.3 K%, 7.1 BB%
Jeimer Candelario, Third Base, .273/.357/.424, 116 wRC+
Robbie Grossman, Left Field/Right Field, .237/.358/.421, 116 wRC+
Akil Baddoo (7-Day IL), Center Field/Left Field, .267/.333/.467, 116 wRC+
Gregory Soto, Relief Pitcher, 3.67 ERA/4.09 xFIP, 19.2 K%, 13.9 BB%
Under-Performers:
Víctor Reyes, Right Field/Center Field, .211/.236/.352, 55 wRC+
Miguel Cabrera, Designated Hitter/First Base .250/.315/.381, 91 wRC+
Matt Manning, Starting Pitcher,