I Feel Sick - Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles (52-107) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (88-71)
Before we get into some news, Best Bird awards, and the upcoming series against the Baltimore Orioles (the last series if the regular season), if you like what Jayslam is doing, please consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or an enemy! I’m happy with either.
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SCOREBOARD WATCHING
We have officially reached the point where each and every one of the Jays’ last remaining games against the Baltimore Orioles is pretty much a must-win, as they need to gain at least one game on both the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners by October 3 or their season is officially over. The ultimate fate of the Blue Jays’ season may come down to whether or not the Jays can win two or three games against Baltimore. And the really fucked up thing is that might not even be enough. The Jays’ magic number being at three means that a sweep by either the Red Sox or Mariners would seal the deal, regardless of how well the Jays play. Only picking up one game would be all but a death sentence, provided Boston and Seattle don’t also get swept. Toronto getting swept, of course, would spell doom.
Bottom line is to achieve the bare minimum of results necessary to have a chance, the Jays are going to have to play much better than they did against the Yankees, Rays, and Twins. They’re going to need to look more like the team that went 13-2 in the first half of September, and not nearly as much like the team that’s gone 6-7 since then. Whichever version of the Toronto Blue Jays they end up being will determine whether my next post in the Jays will be either a Game 163 preview, a playoff preview, or a post-mortem. I know which two of these I’d most like to write!
Added motivation: Send Kaitlyn McGrath to the postseason! Let’s go!
The good news is that the Red Sox provided the Jays a lifeline by somehow managing to lose a series against the Baltimore Orioles. While it would’ve been much more helpful for Toronto to beat the Yankees, it still means that the Jays have a better shot than it maybe feels like. They’ll face another soft team in Washington, but given how things have gone for the Red Sox recently, it’s probably wrong to draw it up as a series win for Boston.
The New York Yankees, who will host the Tampa Bay Rays, who could clinch a playoff spot as soon as today. The more pressing concern for the Jays are the upstart Seattle Mariners, who start a three game series at home against the Angels after delivering the coup de grâce to the Oakland Athletics’ playoff hopes. Obviously I would much rather see the Jays make it over Seattle if it comes down to it, but the Mariners, beyond being a fun underdog story in their own right, do have a lot of bizarre, entertaining history to exorcise. If you have just over three and a half hours to kill, Secret Base’s documentary The History of the Seattle Mariners is legitimately one of the best pieces of baseball media that I’ve ever seen.
TRANSACTION NEWS
As per Héctor Gómez’s tweet above, the Jays signed Dominican third base prospect Gregory Canó for a $350,000 signing bonus. I can’t find a single scouting report on Canó, but the thing that people are obviously highlighting about him is his immediate family, as Gregory’s the son of former Houston Astros pitcher José Canó and younger brother (by 21 years!) to New York Mets second baseman Robinson Canó. As frequent purveyors of prospects with legendary baseball bloodlines, the Jays seemed to have discovered a new market inefficiency: Alarmingly young siblings.
As for the Major league team, the release of Jake Lamb created a spot on the 40-man that was filled by righty relief pitcher Jacob Barnes. Anthony Castro was sent to Triple-A to make room on the active roster for Barnes.
The Jays had traded for Barnes back in June to try to path holes in that was the bullpen equivalent of a tire fire. In nine games and nine innings with the Blue Jays, Barnes did about as well as could be expected striking out a surprisingly high rate of hitters while inducing softer contact, but occasionally getting undermined by walks. The 6.00 ERA is ugly, but inflated by a small sample size: Of his nine appearances, he only gave up an earned run in three of them.
In 14 appearances with Buffalo since being sent down, Barnes has posted a sparkling 0.68 ERA, but that’s heavily contact-based, as his BABIP has been a frankly unbelievable .179. His walk rate has dropped a bit, but so have his strikeouts.
Barnes will take Castro’s spot in the bullpen after the latter’s poor appearance in Tuesday night’s game. If he can ever reach the potential that his filthy stuff promises, Castro could be one of the best pitchers in this bullpen, but until then, he’s gonna find himself yo-yoing between Toronto and Buffalo.
BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Bo Bichette (9)
Bo clinched a Best Bird silver medal, with the highlight being a pair of big home runs on Wednesday. Also worth mentioning is Marcus Semien, who did not have the best series, but he did hit his 44th home run of the season, setting a new record for home runs in one season by a second baseman.
Honourable Mentions: George Springer, Santiago Espinal
Pitcher: José Berríos (4)
Honourable Mentions: Nate Pearson, Adam Cimber
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 13 (clinched)
Bo Bichette- 9
Marcus Semien- 7
George Springer- 7
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- 5
Teoscar Hernández- 4
Joe Panik- 2 (now on the Miami Marlins)
Randal Grichuk- 2
Santiago Espinal- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 15 (clinched)
Hyun Jin Ryu- 9
Alek Manoah- 8
José Berríos- 4
Ross Stripling- 4
Steven Matz- 4
Julian Merryweather- 2
Adam Cimber- 1
Trevor Richards- 1
Anthony Kay- 1 (Triple-A)
Anthony Castro- (Triple-A)
Ryan Borucki- 1 (Triple-A)
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Friday, October 1 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Thomas Eshelman vs Steven Matz
Saturday, October 2 (3 p.m. EST/1 p.m. MST): John Means vs Alek Manoah
Sunday, October 3 (3 p.m. EST/1 p.m. MST): Bruce Zimmermann vs Hyun Jin Ryu
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 54-105
Run differential: -278 (650 runs scored, 928 runs allowed)
Season Series vs. Blue Jays: 5-11
Record since the last series vs. Blue Jays: 6-10
Last 10 games: 5-5
Thanks for beating the Red Sox somehow, O’s. Now perish.
Best Players:
Cedric Mullins, Center Field, .295/.364/.587, 139 wRC+
John Means, Starting Pitcher, 3.32 ERA/4.33 xFIP, 23.0 K%, 4.5 BB%
Austin Hays, Outfield, .255/.304/.464, 106 wRC+
Cole Sulser, Relief Pitcher, 2.70 ERA/3.73 xFIP, 28.4 K%, 8.9 BB%
Ryan Mountcastle, First Base, .257/.312/.494, 114 wRC+