"Home" Opening Series Preview: "Los Angeles" Angels (4-2) vs Toronto Blue Jays (3-3)
Humanity has outgrown the need for Texas.
Welp. Good thing the Jays won two in New York.
I’ve never said this, but it’s time to get the fuck out of Texas and get the fuck back to Florida.
GAME 1
Fresh off of taking two of three from New York, the Toronto Blue Jays Jays strolled into the plague grounds of Globe Life Field to face reclamation project Mike Foltynewicz and his Texas Rangers in front of an existentially horrifying, largely unmasked crowd of 38,283 Texans. This was the highest attendance at a sporting event in the United States since the beginning of the pandemic, and it was every bit as nausea-inducing to watch as you would expect. Grossly absurd as it was though, it wasn’t as nausea-inducing as Foltynewicz’s pitch count through two innings (HEYYYYOOOOOOOOO).
In the top of the first, Foltynewicz struck out Marcus Semien in six pitches, walked Cavan Biggio in another seven, and gave up a base hit to Bo Bichette in two. He came back to strike out Teoscar Hernández in seven before giving up a base hit to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in six pitches (which scored Biggio, giving the Jays a 1-0 lead) and struck out Rowdy Tellez in seven. So that’s 35 pitches in one inning, for those of you keeping track at home.
In the top of the second, Foltynewicz walked Randal Grichuk in eight, struck out Danny Jansen in six, and got Jonathan Davis (making his first start of the season in centre field, punching Grichuk to right, Hernández to left, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to the bench for today) to ground out in five. However, he had trouble finishing the inning off, giving up a booming two-run home run to Semien in four pitches and a subsequent solo home run to Biggio in two. It took him four more pitches to finally end the inning on a questionable called strike three to Bichette. 29 pitches in the second. So that’s a 4-0 lead for the Blue Jays after two innings and 64 pitches from an erratic, visibly frustrated Foltynewicz.
Folty would pitch a strong third but may have only gotten out of the fourth unscathed because of a questionable decision on the Jays’ part to have Davis try to steal third while up four with Marcus Semien up at the plate. He ended the night having thrown 95 pitches across four innings, striking out seven of the 18 batters he faced, while also walking three and getting hit hard, most notably burned by a couple of meatballs served up to Semien and Biggio.
For their part, the Jays started trade acquisition Steven Matz, who is also hoping to rebound after a horrible 2020 season with the Mets. While it may be worth waiting for Matz to face an actual solid team before declaring that rumours of his demise have been greatly exaggerated, Matz looked excellent through the 6 ⅓ innings that he got through, striking out 9 of 23 batters while only walking one. He got hit a bit hard, mostly during the fourth inning, where a hard single from Isiah Kiner-Falefa (who looked like a problem for opposing teams in a pesky sort of way), a hit by pitch of Joey Gallo, and a ground ball single up the middle from Nate Lowe that scored Texas’ first run. The last out of the fourth inning was a scorching line drive from José Treviño that landed neatly into Cavan Biggio’s glove.
Buck Martinez seemed to think that Matz’s troubles in the fourth were due to him getting under his pitches, not getting on top of them for optimal control. Whatever his problem was, he seemed to correct it afterwards, striking out David Dahl, Gallo, Nick Solak, and Lowe to finish off his outing.
Rangers pitching after Foltynewicz left the game probably should’ve been punished more than it was, especially Kyle Cody, who had absolutely no idea where the fucking ball was going out of his hand in 2 ⅓ innings. He walked three batters and hit a whopping FOUR, including a particularly scary-looking HBP on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. that ended up not being anything serious, and his control problems led to the Jays’ fifth and sixth runs off of a Randal Grichuk single and a hard hit ground ball from Teoscar Hernández that was misplayed by Charlie Culberson, making it 6-1. Brett de Geus also hit a batter, but at least he looked a little more solid, shutting down the Jays with little incident in 2 ⅔ innings of work.
One worrying moment occurred in the sixth when Matz delivered a pitch that David Dahl fouled off Danny Jansen’s right knee. Jansen, who was in a lot of visible pain, finished the inning but was replaced in the next for Alejandro Kirk. He would prove okay though.
Tyler Chatwood and Tim Mayza shut down the seventh and eighth innings, and the Jays brought in the scuffling Rafael Dolis to finish the game off with a five-run lead. The results were… Mixed, at best. Dolis set the tone right away as one of his patented sinkers grazed Nick Solak. He followed this up with strikeouts of both Nate Lowe and José Treviño before giving up a deep fly ball to Brock Holt that was in Randal Gruchuk’s glove, but popped out after the leaping Grichuk hit the wall. Solak came around to score, but Dolis struck out pinch-hitter Leody Taveras with a splitter that hasn’t been working for him all season to hold the score to 6-2, giving the Jays the first win of the series.
GAME 2
The Texas Rangers got the day started on the right foot by bidding farewell to their longtime dogshit second baseman, as they somehow convinced the New York Yankees to take him for prospects.
There would’ve been no greater reminder of the Rangers’ inability to be any other version of themselves but futile than a Blue Jays’ victory, but sadly, this was Tanner Roark’s turn in the rotation. And post-2019 Tanner Roark doesn’t throw anything but batting practice at this point, apparently.
Three innings into the game and Roark’s night was over. He had given up five runs on six hits. He hadn’t given up any walks despite unimpressive control, but only because the Rangers made a point to crush any ball that he did end up guiding into the zone, with first baseman Ronald Guzmán hitting a solo shot off him, and designated hitter Nate Lowe hitting two, a one-run and two-run home runs (for league-leading totals of four homers and 14 RBI). Upon Roark leaving the game, the Rangers led 5-1, with the sole Blue Jays homer coming in the first inning off Bo Bichette’s first home run of the season.
Roark’s exit velocities on Baseball Savant say it all. Fuck me.
The Rangers sent out rookie starting pitcher Dane Dunning, who they had received from the Chicago White Sox in the Lance Lynn trade, and who ranks as their third-best prospect, according to MLB’s Prospect Pipeline. Dunning built upon his 34 successful 2020 innings with the White Sox with five solid innings, striking out six Blue Jays, who had trouble making anything happen off of him besides the Bichette home run.
After Roark, the Jays turned things over to veteran finesse lefty Tommy Milone, who got them through three more innings. He struck out Brock Holt and Leody Taveras in a clean fourth inning, but ran into trouble in the fifth, walking two and escaping a bases-loaded jam thanks to a nice double play turned by Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He would give up a solo home run to Jonah Heim, the first in the rookie catcher’s career, in one of only two instances of hard contact off of him. Overall, Milone turned in some perfectly serviceable long relief innings in which he limited hard contact while not getting a ton of strikeouts.
Milone would turn things over to Ryan Borucki, who continued to look terrific to start the season, punching out David Dahl, getting Joey Gallo to fly out, and getting Nate Lowe swinging. David Phelps followed him up and promptly allowed a base hit to Nick Solak, who moved to second on a passed ball from Alejandro Kirk. After a ground out from Guzmán, Holt drove a base hit to left field to drive in Solak for the Rangers’ seventh run. Heim would ground out into a nifty double play turned by Biggio to end the eighth.
On the other end, Dunning turned things over to the hard-throwing lefty Taylor Hearn, who would shut down the Jays in the sixth. In the seventh, he would run into some trouble. With one out, Hearn issued a walk to Guerrero, who followed him up with a base hit up the middle. Hearn would then throw two wild pitches to let Vladdy score, strike out Rowdy Tellez, and give up a base hit to Randal Grichuk to give the Jays their third run.
Hearn was succeeded by Matt “Fucking” Bush, making his return to the Texas bullpen after missing 2019 and 2020 to injury. He would give up another solo home run to Bichette to make it 7-4, turning things over to Ian Kennedy in the ninth inning. Three hard-hit balls from Guerrero, Gurriel, and Tellez would all find their way to Rangers fielders, and the shitty, discouraging ball game was over, with a mercifully short run time of two hours and 33 minutes.
GAME 3
The third game was actually just as long as the second game, at two hours and 33 minutes. So I guess that’s neat. Unlike pretty much anything else that happened after the first game of the series.
Somehow, this is all Tanner Roark’s fault.
The Jays’ offence continued to scuffle on Wednesday, finding themselves for the most part unable to figure out Rangers starter Kyle Gibson, getting shut out through six innings. The Jays' struggles with scoring runners in scoring position, most evidenced by the fifth inning, in which, after Randal Grichuk grounded out, Joe Panik lined a single to centre field, followed by a double from Danny Jansen and a walk to Marcus Semien. Unfortunately, Cavan Biggio’s swing at the first pitch only yielded a grounder up the middle right towards a shifted Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who tossed it to Nate Lowe to complete the double play.
Gibson would strike out eight and walk only one of the 24 Blue Jays he faced. It was a great rebound performance for the veteran after a terrible opening day start in Kansas City in which he only managed to record one out while giving up five runs.
Hyun Jin Ryu got the start for the Blue Jays and twirled a pretty fucking excellent seven innings in which he struck out seven of 28 Rangers faced while walking none. The only blips came in the bottom of the second inning, which began with a Nick Solak home run. After Ryu got Nate Lowe to fly out, José Treviño hit a ground ball to Semien, who relayed it to first only to have it pop out of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s glove as the first baseman reached down for the scoop. This would prove costly, as Treviño would advance to second on an Eli White groundout, and come around to score on a base hit from Leody Taveras. Charlie Culberson would follow up with another base hit, but Kiner-Falefa would be retired by an excellent diving stop from Semien to leave the score at 2-0.
Ryu would pretty much cruise from that point until the bottom of the seventh inning, in which Ryu gave up back-to-back base hits to Treviño and White to start things off. However, they would get a force out at third thanks to a terrific play from Vladdy, and Ryu would strike out Culberson and get a groundout from Kiner-Falefa to finish up his outing.
Tim Mayza relieved Ryu in the bottom of the eighth. After striking out David Dahl, Mayza would run into trouble after giving up an infuriatingly soft bouncing base hit down the third base line to Joey Gallo. Even more so after nailing Solak with a faster. After Lowe grounded into a force out, Rafael Dolis came in to close the inning, getting Treviño to fly out to right field on four sliders.
The Rangers would relieve Gibson with hard-throwing rookie Josh Sborz, who got three groundouts from Randal Grichuk, Joe Panik and Danny Jansen. Matt Bush would return to pitch the eighth and promptly gave up a leadoff home run to Marcus Semien, his third of the year. Afterwards, he would get Cavan Biggio to line out, and despite a base hit from Bo Bichette, Bush would come back to strike out Teoscar Hernández (who had a rough series, going 1-for-12 with six strikeouts) and get Vladdy to fly out to left field. Ian Kennedy would come in to close things out, beginning the top of the ninth by striking out both Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Grichuk. Joe Panik would get a two-out base hit and Danny Jansen would be replaced with pinch hitter Rowdy Tellez in the hopes of breaking the big guy’s slump via a big hit. No dice, as Rowdy’s 0-for-16 start to the season would continue with Kennedy striking him out on a foul tip. Final score: 2-1 for the Texas Rangers.
POINTS OF INTEREST
THE OFFENCE
Arguably the biggest weakness of the Blue Jays’ through the first six games of the young season has been the offence. The only Jays with an OPS over .800 at this point are Marcus Semien (.896), Bo Bichette (.822), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.985) and Randal Grichuk (1.078). Cavan Biggio’s new, more aggressive approach hasn’t yielded results yet (.513). Teoscar Hernández, as I mentioned, had a frustrating, strikeout-filled series in Texas (.542). Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has made terrific contact (.356 Expected Batting Average) but has gotten unlucky (.400 OPS). Danny Jansen (.580) and Alejandro Kirk (.125) have both had slow starts, and Rowdy Tellez looks absolutely lost at the plate right now (.059).
Now, if you actually expect those awful OPS’ to persist throughout the season, I would humbly suggest remembering that we are a mere six games in and maybe get a sense of perspective. Scoring only 3 ⅓ runs per game is certainly not what you envision when you look at this lineup on paper, but I have a hard time believing that’s going to persist, especially once George Springer comes back (whenever that may be).
MATZ
The biggest bright spot of the Super Spreader Series for the Blue Jays was Steven Matz, who looked absolutely excellent in his start on Monday. I already talked a bit about it, but for an interesting, if surface-level analysis, take a look at Matz’s Statcast analytics from 2020:
Now check out his analytics from his one start in 2021.
Again, the name of the game is SMALL SAMPLE SIZE. And we should probably wait for Matz to face a good team before declaring that rumours of his demise have been greatly exaggerated (the Rangers still aren’t winning over 65 games and you can’t change my mind), but this is as encouraging a sign as any.
ROARK
What the fuck is there even left to say about Tanner Roark at this point? I don’t feel good saying that he sucks. I take no pleasure in saying that someone is no longer good at something they’ve devoted their life to (albeit while making a LOT of money). But holy shit. It’s bad.
I know I just cautioned against freaking out about poor results over small sample sizes, but the thing about Roark is that it’s not truly a small sample size. Since July 2019, Tanner Roark has pitched to an ERA of 6.15. Don’t like ERA? Fine. Try an xFIP of 5.24. Or a SIERA of 4.94. When you restrict it to the 2020 season and his first start of 2021 (a small, but not exactly ignorable 50 ⅔ inning sample size), those numbers continue ballooning to 7.28, 5.85, and 5.32, respectively, which would seem to indicate that this is fast becoming the new normal.
The crux of the matter is this: Roark was signed to be a veteran innings-eater who would give the Jays a solid chance to win whichever game he played, even if he didn’t blow anybody’s mind. Not only has he gotten crushed and taken the Jays out of many games, but he’s also not gone deep, averaging just over four innings per start. Try as he might (and he is trying, by all accounts), it just looks like he’s neatly guiding the ball into the heart of the strike zone, making the hitter’s job nice and easy.
So, the question becomes this: Whenever Robbie Ray and/or Nate Pearson come back from injury (and even if they were to not come back, honestly), how can you look into T.J. Zeuch, Thomas Hatch, Trent Thornton, Anthony Kay or, fuck it, Ross Stripling and Tommy Milone’s eyes and tell them with a straight face that Tanner Roark is a better rotation option at this point in time?
Roark is probably going to start against the Anaheim Angels, a much better offensive team than the Rangers that includes Mike Trout, Anthony Rendón, and Shohei Goddamn Ohtani. I hate to be a pessimist, really, but it doesn’t bode well, and you have to think that all the “veteran pedigree” in the world may not be enough to save his roster spot before long.
ROSTER/INJURY UPDATES
There’s some good news and bad news on the injury front, and we’ll go with the bad news first, because fuck it, we’re gluttons for punishment today babyyyyyyyy.
Is that an unspoken desire for musical accompaniment I hear? I’m more than happy to provide.
To state the plainly obvious, the Springer news is not what you want to hear, obviously. Especially when we were but a day or so away from likely seeing his Blue Jays debut in Dunedin against the California Angels. The Jays are totally justified in making sure that their big acquisition is as healthy as possible before trotting him out there, but it SUCKS to see this as a fan of the team, especially when the team is lacking in offence at the moment.
Nate Pearson is also hurt but is apparently “progressing”, according to Charlie Montoyo. What that means is up to anyone’s interpretation, as Pearson hasn’t thrown a bullpen as far as we know in what feels like forever, and we don’t have a clear timetable for his return. Like I’ve kind of beat into the ground at this point, the Jays were always likely to limit Pearson’s inning’s anyways, but it’s still not fun to see the “injury-prone” label start to stick to a young pitcher so insistently.
Some good news though! Robbie Ray is coming back soon! And he’s adorable, apparently!
For reasons that I think I’ve covered at this point, the Jays could use another helping hand in the rotation. He threw a simulated game on Wednesday, which would seem to put him in line for the Monday game in the upcoming home series against the Yankees.
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Thursday, April 8 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Griffin Canning vs Ross Stripling (last outing: 3 ⅓ innings, 19 batters faced, 5 K, 2 BB, 7 hard hits)
Friday, April 9 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Andrew Heaney (last outing: 3 innings, 16 batters faced, 4 K, 2 BB 4 hard hits) vs T.J. Zeuch (presumptive) (last outing: 4 innings, 15 batters faced, 1 K, 1 BB, 5 hard hits)
Saturday, April 10 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Alex Cobb (presumptive) (last outing: 6 innings, 27 batters faced, 7 K, 1 BB, 9 hard hits) vs Steven Matz (presumptive) (last outing: 6 ⅓ innings, 23 batters faced, 9 K, 1 BB, 6 hard hits)
Sunday, April 11 (1 p.m. EST/11 a.m. MST): Shohei Ohtani (presumptive) (last outing: 4 ⅔ innings, 22 batters faced, 7 K, 5 BB, 6 hard hits) vs Tanner Roark (presumptive) (last outing: 3 innings, 15 batters faced, 2 K, 0 BB, 8 hard hits)
THE OPPOSING NARRATIVE
After another offseason not spent significantly upgrading the rotation to the dismay of both their fans and admirers of basic logic, the Angels went into the season with a true stars-and-scrubs lineup, comprising the likes of Mike Trout, Anthony Rendón, David Fletcher, Jared Walsh and Shohei Ohtani on one hand, and the assorted corpses of Albert Pujols, Justin Upton, and Dexter Fowler on the other. This is on top of a six-man rotation of some good-but-not-great pitchers and some massive question marks, and you seemed to have a recipe for continued disappointment in Anaheim.
For their part, the Angels have done well for themselves early in the season. They took three of four from the young Chicago White Sox, culminating in an exciting and bizarre game started by based two-way God Shohei Ohtani. They followed that up with a two-game split with the Houston Astros, who they hope to upset for the AL West crown. They’ll hope to keep the positive momentum going against the Blue Jays in Dunedin. Meanwhile, the Baby Jays will hope that their starting pitchers not named Hyun Jin Ryu can work around the Angels’ powerful core of hitters, and will be counting on their own dreadnought of an offence to figure it out against the Angels’ starting pitchers, all talented and flawed in their own unique ways.