Farewell, Buffalo (Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays (48-44) vs. New York Mets (50-43))
Welp. Nevertheless.
Bidding one final goodbye to the great city of Buffalo despite its unfortunate Yankee fan and Red Sox fan infestations, the Jays embark on a final road trip before returning to Toronto, starting in the great borough of Queens.
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BEST BIRDS
Hitter: George Springer (3) 8 plate appearances, .500/.500/1.000, 8 total bases, 3 Weighted Runs Created, 0.01 Win Probability Added, 0.24 WPA/LI
One of the few offensive bright spots against the Red Sox, Springer became the first Blue Jay not named Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, or Marcus Semien to win Best Bird more than two times. His plaque is in the mail as we speak.
Honourable Mentions: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Danny Jansen
Pitcher: Trevor Richards (1), 2 innings, 8 batters faced, 2 hits, 1 earned run, 3 strikeouts, 0 walks, 6.67 FIP, 0.06 Win Probability Added, 0.11 WPA/LI
Despite the solo home run he gave up in garbage time on Monday, Richards still gets the Best Bird on account of his excellent inning of relief on Wednesday. It doesn’t hurt his case that Robbie Ray had an uncharacteristically poor start on Wednesday and Ross Stripling got absolutely throttled on Monday.
Honourable Mentions: Tim Mayza, Jacob Barnes
BEST BIRD STANDINGS
Hitters:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 11
Bo Bichette- 5
Marcus Semien- 5
George Springer- 3
Joe Panik- 2 (now on the Miami Marlins)
Randal Grichuk- 2
Santiago Espinal- 1
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- 1
Cavan Biggio- 1
Teoscar Hernández- 1
Pitchers:
Robbie Ray- 8
Hyun Jin Ryu- 6
Alek Manoah- 4
Steven Matz- 4
Ross Stripling- 3
Julian Merryweather- 2 (60-day IL)
Trevor Richards- 1
Anthony Kay- 1
Anthony Castro- 1 (sent down to Triple-A)
Ryan Borucki- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
Friday, July 23 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Steven Matz vs. Tylor Megill
Matz: 16 games, 81 ⅓ innings, 4.43 ERA/3.98 FIP/3.70 xFIP, 23.9 K%, 6.0 BB%, .268 BA Against/.247 xBA Against, 38.2 HardHit%
Megill: Five games, 24 innings, 2.63 ERA/3.71 FIP/3.86 xFIP, 27.7 K%, 8.9 BB%, .220 BA Against/.159 xBA Against, 41.3 HardHit%
Saturday, July 24 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST): Hyun Jin Ryu vs. Taijuan Walker
Ryu: 18 games, 105 ⅔ innings, 3.32 ERA/3.96 FIP/3.97 xFIP, 19.9 K%, 5.6 BB%, .236 BA Against/.254 xBA Against, 40.9 HardHit%
Walker: 17 games, 90 ⅓ innings, 2.99 ERA/3.29 FIP/4.08 xFIP, 24.3 K%, 9.3 BB%, .204 BA Against/.239 xBA Against, 39.6 HardHit%
Sunday, July 25 (1 p.m. EST/11 a.m. MST): Ross Stripling vs. Rich Hill (presumptive)
Stripling: 16 games (15 starts), 75 innings, 5.04 ERA/5.29 FIP/4.49 xFIP, 24.2 K%, 7.8 BB%, .247 BA Against/.241 xBA Against, 41.5 HardHit%
Hill: 19 games, 95 ⅓ innings, 3.87 ERA/4.55 FIP/4.54 xFIP, 23.4 K%, 9.3 BB%, .217 BA Against/.237 xBA Against, 36.6 HardHit%
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 48-45
Run differential: +15 (367 Runs, 352 Runs Allowed)
Last 10 games: 5-5
With absurdly rich, obnoxious, cringe-posting hedge fund parasite Steve Cohen taking over from the somehow more hated Wilpons as team owner, the New York Mets were out to finally put together a consistent winner that could challenge Atlanta for the division title and make runs for the championship. The good news is that Atlanta, as well as the Phillies and Nationals, have been clusterfucks, and the mets lead the division, 3.5 games ahead of Philadelphia. The less-good news is that the Mets have also been kind of a mess, in large part due to a frankly absurd series of injuries. The off-the-field stuff hasn’t exactly been squeaky clean either, with the team’s front office culture coming into question, with the most high profile case being the revelation of aggressive sexual harassment by now-former assistant general manager Jared Porter.
Back to baseball though. With regards to the offence, injuries to J.D. Davis, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, José Peraza, and most recently big offseason acquisition Francisco Lindor have led to extended stints on the big league team for the likes of Blue Jays Legends Billy McKinney (now a member of the Dodgers) and Brandon Drury, Mason Williams, and Khalil Lee. That is to say, people who probably shouldn’t be seeing much time in the big leagues for a contending club. The outfield has been especially turbulent, with 13 different players seeing time there.
That being said, it’s kind of a miracle that the Mets’ offence has been merely mediocre (96 wRC+) instead of outright bad. Among hitters with at least 127 plate appearances, only Pete Alonso and Nimmo have managed a wRC+ over 110. Lindor, Conforto, James McCann, Dominic Smith, and Jeff McNeil have all underperformed, hovering around league average, with Lindor’s solid fWAR largely a by-product of his excellent glove.
While the bullpen has been solid thanks to the efforts of Edwin Díaz, Trevor May, Jeurys Familia, and old friend Aaron Loup, the starting pitching has been lights out, sporting the best FIP and xFIP in all of baseball. Of course, this is largely in part of Jacob deGrom, who continues to be an absolute cheat code on days he pitches (though he has missed some starts due to recurring injuries, and the Jays will not face him during this series).
The non-number one spots have been impacted by injuries that have kept pitchers such as Noah Syndergaard, Jordan Yamamoto, Thomas Szapucki, Carlos Carrasco and Joey Lucchesi out for most or all of the season. David Peterson’s solid ERA belies some mediocre peripherals However, Old Friends Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker have been excellent, and rookie Tylor Megill (whose name I’ve looked up at least five times to make sure I got right) has been terrific since being called up, solidifying the Mets rotation’s status as the best in baseball. While Walker’s results don’t quite match his peripherals, Jays fans have certainly been eyeing him covetously after how the offseason went down. Certainly come early April in Arlington when Tanner Roark was lofting batting practice to the fucking Rangers. And today’s acquisition of Rich Hill, who could be slated to start Saturday or Sunday against the Jays, will only help matters for the Mets.
Best Players:
Jacob deGrom, Starting Pitcher (10-day IL), 1.08 ERA/1.62 xFIP, 45.1 K%, 3.4 BB%
Marcus Stroman, Starting Pitcher, 2.58 ERA/3.58 xFIP, 20.6 K%, 5.8 BB%
Francisco Lindor, Shortstop (10-day IL), .228/.326/.376, 98 wRC+
Brandon Nimmo, Outfielder, .298/.424/.419, 142 wRC+
Taijuan Walker, Starting Pitcher, 2.99 ERA/4.08 xFIP, 24.3 K%, 9.3 BB%
Key Under-Performers:
Michael Conforto, Right Field, .206/.338/.349, 99 wRC+
David Peterson, Starting Pitcher (10-day IL), 5.54 ERA/3.94 xFIP, 24.0 K%, 10.1 BB%
Jeff McNeil, Second Base, .258/.344/.347, 100 wRC+