A few weeks ago, we looked at Fangraphs’ ZiPS projections for the 2022 season. As promised, with the lockout still trudging on, we’ll be looking at Fangraphs’ month-old brand-new Toronto Blue Jays Top 37 Prospects list, with a little bit of Keith Law occasionally thrown in.
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The Top 5
1. Gabriel Moreno, Catcher (Ranked 7th in 2021)
Age: 22
2021 Levels: Double-A (32 games), Triple-A (three games), Rookie (two games)
2021 stats: 159 plate appearances, .367/.436/.626, eight home runs, 15.7 K%, 8.8 BB%, .398 BABIP
Future Value: 60 (Up from 50 in 2021)
Tool Grades (Present/Future): Hit: 55/60 (Up from 45/50), Raw Power: 50/50 (Up from 45/50), Game Power: 40/45 (Up from 30/45), Run: 50/50 (Up from 45/40), Fielding: 45/50 (Up from 40/45) , Throw: 50.
Moreno is the overwhelming consensus pick for the Jays’ top prospect, with some going so far as to crown him the best catching prospect in baseball over the Orioles’ Adley Rutschman.
FanGraphs doesn’t have a Top 100 Prospects out yet, but The Athletic's Keith Law does, ranking him as the sixth best prospect in baseball, behind only Rutschman, Bobby Witt Jr., Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, and C.J. Abrams.
There has been some talk in the fanbase of Moreno potentially moving to third base, and while the Jays may try to get some versatility out of him by occasionally deploying him in the infield (he was originally a shortstop, after all), a full-time move doesn’t appear to be in the cards. One would have to think this is especially the case if his power numbers from last season are due for regression, as Gawlowski and Longenhagen assert.
To shamelessly quote myself back in November: The thing is that if the team was serious about moving him there full time, I think they would have played him there for more than three games in 2021. And while his offensive projections would work well at third base, they would be outstanding at catcher, where he also grades out well defensively.
With at least two of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and Reese McGuire likely to start the season on the active roster, Moreno will have time to develop (however much developing is left to be done) in Buffalo. One would have to think though that the Blue Jays won’t hesitate to call him up once they have both space and a pretence to do so.
2. Orelvis Martínez, Shortstop/Third Base (Ranked 6th in 2021)
Age: 20
2021 Levels: Single-A (71 games), High Single-A (27 games)
2021 stats: 451 plate appearances, .261/.345/.549, 28 home runs, 25.0 K%, 9.5 BB%, .292 BABIP
Future Value: 55 (Up from 50)
Tool Grades (Present/Future): Hit: 30/45 (Up from 20/45), Raw Power: 50/60, Game Power: 35/60 (Up from 25/50), Run: 45/40, Fielding: 30/45, Throw: 55
More of a known quantity but yet almost as ascendant as Moreno is the shortstop Orelvis Martínez. The then-teenage Dominican absolutely crushes the ball, taking the Low-A Southeast League behind the woodshed with a 149 wRC+ and 19 home runs in 71 games. He cooled off a bit when promoted to High-A Vancouver, but his 99 wRC+ with the Canadians looks a lot more impressive once you take his .197 BABIP at that level into account. No, you did not read that wrong.
Whether he can stick at shortstop is another question, as FanGraphs has him eventually moving to third base. Given that shortstop is a bit occupied at this point, I think this meets the definition of “problem you’d love to have”.
Keith Law has him ranked 44th among all prospects, 10th among shortstops. On Martínez, Law says the following:
His ultimate value will come down to where he plays and whether he can keep his contact rate up as he faces better pitching, with the potential to be an impact cleanup hitter when he hits his peak years.
He would have to play out of his mind to make the Jays in 2022. Instead, he’ll likely play a full season in Double-A, with a promotion to Triple-A possible later in the season. 2023 is his Estimated Time of Arrival, per FanGraphs.
3. Gunnar Hoglund, Right-Handed Starting Pitcher (Drafted in 2021)
Age: 22
2021 Levels: N/A
2021 stats: N/A
Future Value: 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future): Fastball: 50/50, Slider: 60/60, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 35/70
The Jays’ first pick in the 2021 Draft, Hoglund dominated the SEC with Ole Miss in 2021, striking out a whopping 38.9 percent of hitter while only walking 6.9 percent, with an ERA of 2.87 and a FIP of 3.32.
He had Tommy John surgery near the end of the college season, meaning that he won’t play professionally in the Blue Jays’ minor league system until late 2022 at the absolute earliest. With regards to a big league debut, some time in 2023 is possible, though some time in 2024 might be more likely.
4. Leo Jiménez, Shortstop/Second Base (Ranked 18th in 2021)
Age: 20
2021 Levels: Single-A (54 games), Rookie (five games)
2021 stats: 262 plate appearances, .320/.523/.392, one home run, 13.7 K%, 20.6 BB%, .390 BABIP
Future Value: 45 (Up from 40)
Tool Grades (Present/Future): Hit: 55/70 (Up from 25/55), Raw Power: 35/35 (Down from 40/45), Game Power: 30/30 (Up from 20/30), Run: 50/50, Fielding: 40/50 (Down from 45/55), Throw: 55
Your eyes do not deceive you, that is a .523 On-Base Percentage. And while that is somewhat BABIP-inflated, Jiménez’s 21.1 BB% is not.
Jiménez hasn’t showed much of anything in the way of power, so the big question with him becomes if, beyond simply putting the ball in play, which we’ve established he can do, he can make enough QUALITY contact. Failing that, he might still get his fair share of hits through sheer volume, though that’s not a stable thing to depend on. Regardless, him now being seen as a potential starter is a huge step in the right direction for the young Panamanian.
FanGraphs has his ETA at 2022, possibly because he was recently added to the 40-man to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. Given that he hasn’t played in High-A yet, I would think that 2023 is substantially more likely.
5. Jordan Groshans, Shortstop/Third Base (Ranked 5th in 2021)
Age: 22
2021 Levels: Double-A (75 games)
2021 stats: 316 plate appearances, .291/.367/.450, seven home runs, 19.3 K%, 10.8 BB%, .347 BABIP
Future Value: 45 (Down from 50)
Tool Grades (Present/Future): Hit: 45/55 (Up from 30/45), Raw Power: 45/50 (Down from 60/70), Game Power: 40/45 (Down from 35/60), Run: 50/50 (Down from 55/50), Fielding: 45/50, Throw: 60
Jordan Groshans is the first prospect on this list to see his stock drop a little bit, which is still not to say that he’s a bust. He still produced a 124 wRC+ at Double-A, after all. What hasn’t really materialized is his power, as evidenced by the steep drop in his grades for both Raw Power and Game Power, and his middling .159 ISO.
With that said, his solid contact and good eye still have his overall bat as one that will be Major League-caliber, in Gawlowski and Longenhagen’s eyes. The past comparisons to Josh Donaldson may not prove to have much bearing in the future though.
Trending Up!
9. Sem Robberse, Right-Handed Starting Pitcher (Ranked 28th in 2021)
In his A-ball debut, Robberse’s four-seam/slider/curve mix paid dividends, limiting walks with a moderate strikeout rate and finishing 11th in the Low-A Southeast League in both FIP and xFIP.
The Dutch 19-year-old struggled upon his promotion to High-A Vancouver, where his strikeout and walk rates ducked and hopped, respectively. Over both levels, he struggled to go deep into games. He averaged just a bit over four innings per game in Low-A, only seeing a slight bump to 4.4 innings per start in High-A.
The article elaborates a bit: “His velocity can dip over the course of an outing, and while his delivery is smooth, he can get flustered and start overthrowing if things aren’t going well on the field. When that happens, he loses all feel for the strike zone, and can’t hit the glove-side part of the plate at all. Like many pitchers his age who missed 2020, he also just needs a lot of reps. He should get plenty in 2022, as he’s one of the more promising arms in the organization.”
10. Zach Logue, Left-Handed Starting Pitcher (Unranked in 2021)
Logue, a 9th round draft pick out of the University of Kentucky, has slowly crept up the system through his early into his mid-twenties. He remained low-key up til 2021, when a strong showing at Triple-A (3.32 ERA, 3.56 FIP) earned him a spot on the 40-man roster, where he will be waiting in the wings for his first shot at the big leagues in 2022, with the ceiling of a back-end starter.
Whether he’ll get the call before the likes of Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch, or Bowden Francis depends on not only injuries to the big league roster, but also his ability to outperform his Buffalo teammates. So basically, to just keep performing the way he has.
Longenhagen and Gawlowski speak glowingly about his pitch mix, ability to limit walks, and strikeout capability.
Logue slips his 91-93 mph fastball past hitters at the letters thanks to its upward angle, created by Logue’s low arm slot. He pretty evenly mixes in a changeup, cutter and slider, with his change operating as his swing-and-miss, finishing pitch. Though neither of his breaking balls is especially nasty, Logue has precise command of them, especially of his cutter, which knifes in on the hands of righty batters with remarkable consistency.
14. Dahian Santos, Right-Handed Starting Pitcher (Unranked in 2021)
Santos is a relatively unheralded Venezuelan teenager who signed with the Blue Jays in 2019. He made his professional debut in 2021, where he racked up the strikeouts and impressed the Jays, who rewarded him at the end of the season with a couple games in Low-A Dunedin, and were apparently reluctant to include him in trade talks.
With a lot of these younger prospects in the middle and lower end of the list, it’s important to remember that Fangraphs tends to be a lot less aggressive with regards to ranking younger players, as they’re further off and could still go many different ways (Fangraphs has his ETA as 2024). On another organization’s list, Santos could be ranked in the Top 10, for all we know.
Longenhagen and Gawloski say: In most ways, he is like a prototypical pitching prospect, an athletic teenager with mid-90s arm strength and promising curveball feel. Santos’ frame limits his projection somewhat, and the length of his arm action creates some command-driven relief risk, but he has one of the better long-term ceilings of pitchers in this system, on par with domestic amateurs who get about $1 million bonuses in the draft.
Hooray for not paying people according to their talent level!
17. Hagen Danner, Right-Handed Relief Pitcher (Previously Unranked)
A pitcher in high school, Hagen Danner was picked as a catcher in the second round of the 2017 Draft, the Jays preferring his upside as a catching prospect with power. Three seasons later, Danner’s combined .191/.280/.353 slash line in Rookie Ball and Low-A, in which he struck out just under third of the time and scuffled through various injuries, prompted an about-face.
Danner was promoted to High-A Vancouver with a new role as a relief pitcher to begin the season. While he was somewhat limited in his use, only making it into 25 games and not pitching back-to-back days, Danner excelled, riding a high-90s fastball and sharp slider to a 2.02 ERA and a spot on the 40-man roster.
Trending Down?
22. Adam Kloffenstein, Right-Handed Starting Pitcher (Ranked 13th in 2021)
After a strong 2019, Kloffenstein’s 2021 in High-A Vancouver, in which he posted a 6.22 ERA while walking 13.1 percent of hitters, was one to forget. Kloffenstein’s strikeout rate was stable, but his pitches all looked weaker and more hittable. His sinker lost velocity and his breaking pitches missed some sharpness, while his changeup induces soft contact, but isn’t much of a strikeout pitch. It’s still much to early to give up on the 21-year old, but as of right now, Kloffenstein is showing an ability to get ground balls, but subpar walk and strikeout potential. So no, he will not figure largely in your galaxy-brained José Ramírez trade proposal.
Unranked. Eric Pardinho, Right-Handed Pitcher (Ranked 16th in 2021)
Ah, the pitfalls of trying to project teenagers whose bodies aren’t fully developed yet.
Th now-21-year old Brazilian has pitched a grand total of 40 and two-thirds innings since his first professional season in 2018. He only threw three innings in two starts in 2021 before being shut down with elbow soreness in July. He’s still basically a baby in baseball terms, but for now, he should be considered an unknown quantity.
Unranked. Dasan Brown, Center Field (Ranked 22nd in 2021)
Brown, an Oakville-native, got an 80-grade from Longenhagen for his speed prior to the 2021 season. While he still projects well with the glove and on the basepaths (he stole an incredible 22 bases in only 51 games), his bat has yet to really show itself, slashing .212/.310/.323 with a 79 wRC+ and 32.7 percent strikeout rate. He’ll be 20 once the 2022 season kicks off, so he still has some time to develop, but both the quality of contact and discipline need to improve for him to project to anything beyond a postseason pinch-runner or defensive sub.
Newcomers
7. Ricky Tiedemann, Left-Handed Starting Pitcher (Drafted in 2021)
Third round pick Ricky Tiedemann hasn’t made his professional debut yet, but impressed many evaluators with his stuff, hitting 96 mph with his fastball after previously hovering around 90 mph. MLB Pipeline’s Jonathan Mayo has compared him to Oakland’s Sean Manaea.
Longenhagen and Gawlowski: “There’s disagreement about how much weight to place on this since he was coming off extended rest and pitching in shorter stints, and the players for whom that was true during 2020 instructs and ’21 spring training ended up having mixed velocity/stuff retention during the ’21 regular season. Proponents point toward the possible dev-related shortcomings of Tiedemann’s amateur environment and to his slightly different delivery (he’s shifted toward the first base side of the rubber and his stride direction has become more closed off) as evidence that this is a trend rather than an anomaly.”
11. Bowden Francis, Right-Handed Starting Pitcher (Ranked 25th in Brewers System in 2021)
You may remember Bowden Francis from the trade that brought him over, which also included Trevor Richards while sending Rowdy Tellez to the Brewers.
Like Zach Logue, Francis is a command-based mid-20s pitching prospect just added to the 40-man who will be waiting in the wings as rotation depth. He put together a nice season across the two highest levels of both the Brewers’ and Jays’ farm systems.
Longenhagen and Gawlowski: “He added a slider in 2021 and now has four distinct offerings, of which the slider has quickly become the best. It’s also hard, which is important because Francis’ curveball is a low-70s rainbow, averaging about 73 mph, while the slider has been up to 87 and sits a bit below that. He has a power pitcher’s style with soft stuff, but Francis’ feel to pitch is excellent and we think he’s an imminent backend starter.”
19. Hayden Juenger, Right-Handed Relief Pitcher (Drafted in 2021)
Juenger is the only 2021 draftee on this list to make his professional debut, and he excelled, dominating over 20 relief innings in High-A (2.70 ERA, 1.33 FIP, 45.9 K%, 5.4 BB%). Both his hard, mid-to-high 90s fastball and mid-80s slider project as above-average pitches now, and Fangraphs projects him to move quickly up the system.
23. Irv Carter, Right-Handed Starting Pitcher (Drafted in 2021)
Yet to make his pro debut, Carter was overshadowed at Calvary Christian Academy by Phillies first-round pick Andrew Painter, but is seen as a legitimate prospect in and of himself, with Baseball America referring to him as “the best No. 2 high school arm in the country” before the draft.
He’s also very easy to cheer for.
Longenhagen & Gawlowski: “Carter has a vertical arm slot but his delivery is so upright that he ends up having to pitch with lots of downhill angle when he works in the strike zone, and he might be hittable in there. He’s shown some aptitude for turning over a changeup in the bullpen but didn’t need to use many of them in high school. With a fully actualized change, Carter will have a viable starter’s repertoire on the surface, though he’ll need to answer some questions about fastball utility as he climbs the minors.”
25. Chad Dallas, Right-Handed Pitcher (Drafted in 2021)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one, but Dallas has not yet made his professional debut.
“The stocky Dallas has among the best breaking stuff in this system, able to add and subtract from his slider and curveball to vary their shapes, while wielding very consistent glove-side command of the slide piece. Dallas’ squat frame and semi-violent arm action push him toward the bullpen, but he threw strikes during his two years at Tennessee… And his breaking ball command gives him a shot to pitch his way through the lineup a few times. For now we have him in as a multi-inning relief prospect.”
“Absolute” Chad Dallas spits on your comments about his size though. This quote from Keegan Matheson’s draft coverage says as much:
‘Size is for the eyes, wins are for the stats.”
Great job!