Early Season Report Cards (Part 1: Catchers and Relievers)
We are now in Early June. It’s about that time where baseball fans and front offices can take a look at their team’s production and place in the standings and make some not entirely baseless judgements about player performance and where the team could stand to improve. With that said, it’s time to look at some Jays players and take stock of how they’ve done (while keeping in mind that his is not necessarily what they’ll be like the rest of the season) via some bullet points as well as everyone’s favourite reductive holdovers from the education system: Letter grades.
Obviously, I can’t look at every single one of the players that have played in a game for Toronto this season. Frankly, I can’t think of a bigger waste of everyone’s time than agonizing over what letter grade Jeremy Beasley or Casey Lawrence deserves in my made-up evaluation. So I'll only be looking at players who have had an admittedly arbitrary minimum of plate appearances (42 for catchers, 84 for other position players) or innings pitched (27 for starting pitchers, 9 for relief pitchers). Anyone who doesn’t make the cut will have their marks deferred till the next reporting period.
And obviously, players who are no longer in the organization won’t be included. I would like to request that the New York Mets send Gosuke Katoh back to us so I can talk about him more, please.
Lastly, because of myself getting COVID and a whole bunch of other unfortunate scheduling, this first part is obviously coming up later than the intended publication date of June 6. I say “first” part because the whole project is just too much work to have done in one post, and I’d rather have one part released obscenely late than both parts. The second part should be out early next week.
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(All stats as of after the game on June 6, 2022)
CATCHERS
Alejandro Kirk
Stats: 167 plate appearances, .306/.389/.465, 9.0 K%, 12.6 BB%, .374 wOBA, 146 wRC+, 3.4 DEF, 1.6 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .312 xBA, .532 xSLG, .393 xwOBA, .392 xwOBACON, 43.5 HardHit%, 6.6 Barrel/PA
Alejandro Kirk heard everybody talking about him as trade bait and told us all to go fuck ourselves.
Sprint speed aside, Kirk’s Baseball Savant page is a sea of red. While his hard hit and barrel numbers have actually gone down from last year, he’s still hitting everything he swings at and making exceptional contact, becoming a bat-on-ball machine in the vein of Myles Straw and Adam Frazier while still providing much more power, refusing to strike out, and taking his walks.
Debatably most impressive is the improvement in Kirk’s defence. Among catchers with at least 230 innings played at the position, he ranks third in baseball for Defensive Runs Saved behind only José Treviño and Reese McGuire. He ranks in the 91st percentile for framing according to Baseball Savant. All told, he’s the second best catcher in baseball (among those with at least 160 plate appearances) accorfing to fWAR with 1.6 behind only Willson Contreras’ 2.0.
GRADE: A++ (A+ for performance, + for GIRTH)
Zack Collins
Stats: 69 plate appearances, .194/.275/.387, 40.6 K%, 8.7 BB%, .295 wOBA, 89 wRC+, -1.1 DEF, 0.0 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .192 xBA, .381 xSLG, .284 xwOBA, .433 xwOBACON, 44.1 HardHit%, 5.8 Barrel/PA%
Your eyes do not deceive you, Zack Collins struck out over 40 percent of the time during his stay with the Blue Jays. And if anything, it felt like more than that.
Talk about someone who has been exactly as advertised. Collins hits the ball hard when he gets the bat on the ball. Unfortunately, Collins also sports 39.1 Whiff rate, one of the highest in baseball among hitters with at least 50 plate appearances. He walks at an alright rate, but unless his strikeouts are somehow corralled, it’s hard to imagine him being anything more than what he’s always been: A poor defensive catcher and strikeout machine who will occasionally pop a deep drive. Not bad for depth, but there’s definitely a reason the Jays decided the three-catcher experiment wasn’t worth going through when one of the catchers is Zack Collins.
GRADE: W, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Danny Jansen
Stats: 62 plate appearances, .232/.290/.625, 16.1 K%, 4.8 BB%, .385 wOBA, 154 wRC+, 0.1 DEF, 0.7 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .279 xBA, .729 xSLG, .433 xwOBA, .480 xwOBACON, 40.4 HardHit%, 16.1 Barrel/PA%
Whereas in previous seasons, Danny Jansen seemed to be snakebitten by bad batted ball luck, ever since last year, Jansen has more so been snakebitten by injuries, breaking his pinky on Monday after a Albert Abreu hit-by-pitch.
Jansen’s strict pull-hitter approach has paid big dividends, leading to an absurd home run rate. In his 16 games since coming back from his initial injury. he’s hit five home runs. One curious aspect is that those five home runs account for all but four of his hits in the same span, though I would be willing to bet that’s more a result of the small sample size than anything else. BABIP doesn’t include home runs, and Jansen’s BABIP is only .150, well below his .224 career average, indicating that he may still be getting some bad batted ball luck. Some things never do change.
GRADE: A-+ (The + is the ambulance that should be following him around at all times at this point)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Adam Cimber
Stats: 26 games, 23.2 innings, 2.28 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 0.89 WHIP, 19.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, .205 BA Against, .259 wOBA Against, 1.14 HR/9, 0.3 gWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 3.83 xERA, 3.84 xFIP, .272 xBA Against, .324 xwOBA Against, .385 xwOBACON Against, 1.10 xHR/9
It’s easy for fans to become endeared to relievers with funky deliveries, and Cimber has earned every bit of that affection this season. He hasn’t been allowing as much soft contact or groundballs as before, but there’s very little to believe that isn’t the result of small sample size. He’s also posted some of the better strikeout and walk rates of his career, balancing out some of the harder hits he’s surrendered.
One thing to keep an eye on is his slider, as he’s always had a tendency to leave it over the plate, but never as frequently as this year, when it’s had a tendency to be crushed, this year more than ever. Peak effectiveness for Cimber is when he’s inducing nonthreatening balls in play, so reducing the damage done by leaving his sinker and slider where they can be tattooed.
GRADE: A- plus a walrus sticker for a unique approach
Trevor Richards
Stats: 25 games, 24 innings, 4.88 ERA, 5.68 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 27.2 11.7 BB%, .233 BA Against, .377 wOBA Against, 2.25 HR/9, 0.9 gWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 5.44 ERA, 4.10 xFIP, .266 xBA Against, .377 xwOBA Against, .483 xwOBACON Against, 1.99 xHR/9
It’s worth noting that these stats do not take Richards getting blown up on Wednesday into account. That said, that outing does loom large, especially in the context of a string of poor outings for Richards.
Richards has had mixed results this season, excelling in higher leverage situations (hence the 0.9 gWAR in six goose egg opportunities. Remember gWAR? Despite my post history, I sure do) while still overall looking like a worse version of his 2021 self. While his changeup has been lethal, but it needs to be set up by his fastball, and that pitch is getting absolutely crushed in part due to recent struggles to locate it, leading to higher hard hit and walk rates.
The good news is that it’s something that can be figured out, and when he’s at his best, as we’ve seen at points this season, he’s a solid middle relief option. It’s just a matter of getting right again.
GRADE: B-, see me after class, bring your shitty walk-up music
David Phelps
Stats: 23 games, 21.1 innings, 2.11 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 23.2 K%, 12.2 BB%, .181 BA Against, .235 wOBA Against, 0.00 HR/9, -0.1 gWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 2.82 xERA, 3.97 xFIP, .219 xBA Against, .235 xwOBA Against, .304 xwOBACON Against, 0.00 xHR/9
The veteran David Phelps has already pitched more innings in 2022 than he has in any season since 2019, and he’s been impressive coming back from the injuries that cut his two previous seasons short.
The one knock on Phelps is his walk rate, but even that could be explained by inflation due to a two-walk outing May 10th against New York, as that walk rate is only at 8.6 percent since then. His strikeout rate is down but still solid overall, especially when combined with his ability to limit barrels, which has been one of the best in the game. Just an overall solid veteran middle relief arm who you can’t ask for more from, really.
GRADE: A-
Yimi García
Stats: 22 games, 21 innings, 3.00 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 0.95 WHIP, 21.7 K%, 6.0 BB%, .197 BA Against, .258 wOBA Against, 0.86 HR/9, 0.7 gWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 2.37 xERA, 3.99 xFIP, .213 xBA Against, .258 xwOBA Against, .285 xwOBACON Against, 0.73 xHR/9
Perceptions of Yimi García are still overly coloured by his April 26 appearance against Boston when he got blown up for four runs over just a third of an inning. Since then, he’s had a 2.13 ERA in 13 appearances, not including his two scoreless outings against Kansas City.
In 2021, García did a reasonably good job of avoiding walks and getting strikeouts while occasionally having trouble with hitters squaring him up. This year, Garcia hasn’t gotten as many strikeouts, with both his chase and whiff rates being down, but has done even better at limiting walks, and has been one of the best in baseball at limiting damaging contact.
GRADE: B+
Jordan Romano
Stats: 22 games, 20.1 innings, 3.10 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, 29.4 K%, 8.2 BB%, .234 BA Against, .329 wOBA Against, 0.89 HR/9, 1.0 gWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 3.97 xERA, 3.19 xFIP, .258 xBA Against, .329 xwOBA Against, .431 xwOBACON Against, 0.93 xHR/9
The only reason there is to be glad that Romano has been getting hit hard is that it gave us a reason to stop caring about saves when that Jeremy Peña home run snapped his save streak.
Romano is very much doing what he’s always done, just with a slight drop in strikeouts and a harsh jump in hard hits allowed (though his barrels allowed rate has gone down). The drop in average velocity for Jordan Romano’s four-seamer was much-discussed earlier in the season, but it seems to have stabilized more so recently, up to 96.3 miles per hour (after averaging 97.6 in 2021). That said, the overall drop in velocity may have a lot to do with his fastball getting hit a lot harder than last year.
The early-season concerns about overuse, while still valid, have gone down recently once the Jays started hitting, as they haven’t had to use him in back-to-back games as frequently.
GRADE: B+
Trent Thornton
Stats: 13 games, 18.1 innings, 3.44 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, 18.4 K%, 11.8 BB%, .209 BA Against, .261 wOBA Against, 0.00 HR/9, 0.1 gWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 3.91 xERA, 4.88 xFIP, .249 xBA Against, .319 xwOBA Against, .340 xwOBACON Against, 0.10 xHR/9
Thornton is a weird one, as he’s not really excelling at anything but has still put together a mostly respectable ERA and FIP. He’s striking out less and walking more hitters than in his terrible 2021, but he’s also limiting barrels, and therefore home runs, at an excellent rate.
He’s been more or less effectively, if not necessarily sustainably, restricting dangerous contact, his ability to go multiple innings helping him hold down the long relief and low-leverage relief slot with Ross Stripling moving to the rotation.
GRADE: B-)
Julian Merryweather
Stats: 18 games, 16.2 innings, 5.94 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 20.3 K%, 4.1 BB%, .286 BA Against, .347 wOBA Against, 1.08 HR/9, -0.4 gWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 5.26 xERA, 3.60 xFIP, .297 xBA Against, .374 xwOBA Against, .460 xwOBACON Against, 1.51/xHR/9
Merryweather’s been an odd one, as while he’s been healthy and shown brief flashes of the brilliance from April 2021, he hasn’t proven he can work consistently in high leverage.
While he’s cut down on walks a bit, his four-seamer, while just as fast as ever hasn’t recaptured the same horizontal movement, owing perhaps to a concurrent drop in spin rate. This has left it straight as an arrow and easy to crush. His off-speed offerings have worked this season when used, but until he can get his fastball working right, there’s going to be a harsh ceiling on Merryweather’s utility to the team.
GRADE: C-
Tim Mayza
Stats: 15 games, 13 innings, 2.08 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 25.5 K%, 3.9 BB%, .224 BA Against, .280 wOBA Against, 0.69 HR/9, 0.7 gWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: 2.79 xERA, 1.94 xFIP, .256 xBA Against, .280 xwOBA Against, .359 xwOBACON Against, 0.69 xHR/9
Perhaps the Jays reliever with the best case for being the best on the team so far this season. Unfortunately, Mayza has also missed the most time due to an injury that’s sidelined him for almost a month.
Aside from a low amount of whiffs, Mayza is pretty close to complete package as a reliever, getting his strikeouts, limiting walks, and getting a lot of soft ground balls that the defence behind him can convert into outs.
One interesting thing to note is an ever-increasing usage of his sinker. He already used it a ton (71 % of the time) in 2021, and in 2022 it’s gone up to 83%. It’s definitely paid off thus far (2021: 30.4 Called Strike + Whiff percentage, 60.7 groundball rate, .296 xwOBA Against. 2022: 35.0 CSW%, 75% groundball rate, .236 xwOBA Against), and who am I to argue with results?
GRADE: A-za. Eh? Eh? I’m good at this.
Did not make the cut: Andrew Vasquez, Tayler Saucedo, Casey Lawrence, Anthony Kay, Bowden Francis, Jeremy Beasley, Matt Gage