What's Left to be Decided in Spring Training? (Part 1: Position Players)
Addendum: This was posted literally minutes before the Blue Jays traded Randal Grichuk to the Colorado Rockies for Raimel Tapia and Adrián Pinto.
With baseball back in the swing of things, it’s time to get back to the usual spring training business, albeit with a bit more of a time crunch. Like last year, we’ll be looking at the Jays’ roster and non-roster invitees and assessing where they stand going through spring training into the regular season.
Unlike last year when this humble enterprise was just getting off its feet, we don’t have that much time before Opening Day. Certainly not enough for a super in-depth look at each position. Jayslam also has a whole year of evaluating the more established of these players under its belt. As much as I would love to pend a post talking about Teoscar Hernández and how good he is, it might not be the most efficient use of our time. And to be frank, we don’t need to spend too much time wondering breathlessly about as much players’ chances on making the team because the Blue Jays are pretty complete, all things considered (Brett Gardner, back the fuck off). So instead, we’re going to be zeroing in on the few questions that do need to be answered and taking a look at the various names trying to eke out a spot on the active roster.
Before we get into it, if you like what Jayslam is doing, please consider sharing this post with a pal who may be interested! Or an enemy! I’m happy with either.
Likewise, if you’ve been enjoying Jayslam, want to see more of it, or want to support its continued existence, consider getting a paid subscription! Paid ones get you access to exclusive posts, such as the occasional podcast.
Third Catcher
Candidate: Reese McGuire
Also in camp: Gabriel Moreno, Tyler Heineman, Kellin Deglan, Chris Bec
Last year, Danny Jansen had a lock on the starting catchers’ role, with Alejandro Kirk and Reese McGuire fighting it out for the backup spot. With a strong finish to his season (.323/.383/.785 with 204 wRC+ in 71 plate appearances) after an abysmal start (.168/.256/.203 with 52 wRC+ in 134 plate appearances), Jansen has easily earned another shot, likely as the Blue Jays’ starting catcher and Hyun-Jin Ryu’s personal battery-mate. The Jays love him for not only his offensive potential, but his work with pitchers and his rock-solid (if relatively ordinary) defensive ability. It’s hard to imagine a world where Jansen doesn’t get a lot of run in 2022.
Kirk’s 2022 was hampered a bit by injuries, as he only got into 60 games, but when he did get some play he performed admirably (.242/.328/.436, 106 wRC+) despite his poor defence, with signs that he got burned by bad luck and/or his poor sprint speed (his solid .330 Weighted On-Base Average still doesn’t touch his excellent .377 Expected wOBA). Barring injury, Jansen and Kirk will be the Jays’ big league catchers, at least until a trade is made or when Gabriel Moreno forces the issue. Somewhat lost in the mix though is the man who actually made the most appearances for the Jays behind the plate in 2021: Reese McGuire.
With Jansen and Kirk hurt, McGuire got into 78 games, slashing .244/.294/.372 with a 78 wRC+ while providing some good defence, catching 11 of 31 attempted base stealers and finishing ninth overall in Fangraphs’ Framing stat. He strikes out at slightly less than league average, but that’s about it for positives when it comes to McGuire’s offense. He doesn’t walk very much and makes pretty weak contact, relying almost entirely on putting balls in play that squeak by the opposing defence.
The terrible bat paired with the solid defence makes McGuire your prototypical backup catcher. And every team needs a backup catcher. The question is whether or not a prototypical backup catcher can eke out a spot over two debatably starter-caliber options.
The answer? Well, the Jays basically gave us their answer last spring training, when McGuire, then coming off a 2020 season in which he posted an unthinkably horrible -19 wRC+, was cut from the active roster as the team went instead with Jansen and Kirk. Granted the circumstances weren’t exactly identical, and McGuire did have a much better 2021, but it’s hard to imagine that the light-hitting Washingtonian is higher than the third string on the Jays’ priorities, even if not including him on the active roster would once again entail exposing him to waivers, where he would presumably be more likely to be picked up, as he’s out of options. Barring a trade or injuries, McGuire’s only shot at the active roster is if the Jays decided to carry three catchers, something they have not been eager to do. It’s likely that they see the inclusion of a catcher who really only has utility as a defensive substitution as opposed to a bench bat or backup outfielder as a blow to the team’s in-game flexibility.
On the other hand, while GM Ross Atkins has voiced a reluctance to carry three catchers, a recent development could make them consider, with the New York Post’s Joel Sherman reporting that 28-man rosters will be implemented through May 1. While it stands to reason that most teams will be using these extra spots for pitchers whose ramp-up to the season has been compromised by the shorter spring training, the Jays could use the added roster spots to carry not only one of the aforementioned bench bat or backup outfielder, but also McGuire, who they could then try to sneak through waivers at a later date once the rosters contract again in May. In this scenario, the Jays could also use McGuire as the main backup catcher on days when Alejandro Kirk is the designated hitter, protecting against the meager possibility an injury to Jansen would force Kirk to vacate that DH spot for pitchers and their abysmal bats to take over.
All in all, McGuire’s chances of making the squad out of spring training are much-improved relative to where they were even just a week ago. That said, it will all come down to the Jays’ priorities when constructing the roster with the additional spots they have.
Gabriel Moreno, MLB’s No. 7 overall prospect, will start the year in Triple-A until he’s ready to usurp Jansen and Kirk. Also hanging around is Tyler Heineman, a 30-year old with some big league experience, and Kellin Deglan, a 29-year old career minor leaguer better known for his time with Team Canada in Olympic and World Baseball Classic qualifying, the Premier12, and the Pan-American Games. They’ll be emergency depth options if a current catcher is shipped off and Moreno is somehow deemed not ready. 26-year old depth piece Bec had an atrocious year in Double-A last season, but is favoured by the organization for what he is, and will likely return to New Hampshire to start the season.
Left-Handed Bench Bat/Backup Infielder
Candidates: Greg Bird, Gosuke Katoh, Otto López
Also in camp: Orelvis Martínez, Jordan Groshans, Leo Jiménez
Much has been made of the Blue Jays’ desire for another left-handed Major League hitter, something that has, thus far, gone unrealized. I don’t think anyone with any sense should be too upset about the lineup the Jays are currently projected to be rolling out every day, but a bit of variation off the bench never hurt anyone. While none of these options should be considered starters there is a very realistic scenario in which at least a couple of them see some solid big league reps.
Blue Jays fans may remember Gregory Bird for the 46 games in 2015 where he looked like the New York Yankees’ first baseman of the future. He actually collected his first-ever hit in the big leagues against then-Jay LaTroy Hawkins on August 15, 2015. A few days later, Mark Teixeira would go down with a leg injury and Bird would establish himself in the starting lineup, slashing .261/.343/.529, striking out a fair bit, but making up for that with a solid eye and some excellent power. Everything was coming up Milhouse for Bird until it very much wasn’t.
Bird’s entire 2016 season was wiped out by a torn labrum, and aside from some big postseason moments in 2017, his 2017-19 seasons were marred by injuries and underperformance. In 140 games over those three seasons, Bird slashed .194/.287/.388 with an 81 wRC+. While Bird still walked and hit the ball hard, he wasn’t able to barrel the ball as often as he had in 2015, when he rode a 32.4 line drive rate to his excellent batting line. When Bird elevated the ball as he did in 2017-19, it tended to land in outfielders’ gloves. This cost him any chance at semi-consistent playing time with the Yankees, and he was designated for assignment in November 2019, eventually choosing free agency.
He missed the entire 2020 season due to injury and bounced around a few organizations before landing with the Colorado Rockies on a minor league deal in 2021. Bird never made the big league roster, but nonetheless had a solid system for the Alburquerque Isotopes, slashing .267/.362/.532 with a 117 wRC+. Now signed to a minor league deal with the Jays, Bird has impressed thus far in spring training.
Another Yankees draft pick, Gosuke Katoh was picked in the second round of the 2013 draft out of high school and has toiled in the minor leagues ever since, alternating between above- and below-average seasons at the dish. While Katoh’s 2021 was one of his strongest seasons offensively (.306/.388/.474 in 402 plate appearances with the Padres’ Triple-A affiliate), his main calling card has been his versatility. While he’s mostly played second (his main position since being drafted) and first base, he’s also spent some time at third, shortstop, and left field. Offensively, he’s taken his fair share of walks, but doesn’t have much power, instead relying on putting the ball in play. While his profile doesn’t jump off the page, his versatility makes him a nice bench or depth asset, and he’s earned some fans due to his enthusiasm for being a part of the team, as well as his social media presence.
The Dominican-Canadian 23-year old Otto López is a fairly highly regarded super utility prospect, ranking in the Top 10 of FanGraphs’, Keith Law’s, and MLB’s Jays prospects lists. López isn’t especially known for his bat (he has an excellent contact profile, but very little in the way of power), he nonetheless had a solid season in Double-A and Triple-A for the Jays in 2021, earning a late-season call-up in which he struck out once and promptly got sent down.
Like Katoh, López’s biggest strength (apart from his ability to put the bat on the ball), the one that consistently gets him projected as at least a Major League bench player, is his versatility. Since beginning his professional career, he’s mostly played second base and shortstop, also recently racking up some innings in all three outfield positions. He’s not an especially strong defender at any position, but he has a strong arm and runs very well.
Of these three, Bird appears to be the early favourite off the back of his profile, past success and MLB experience, and early spring training results, with FanGraphs’ Roster Resource pencilling him in the big league bench. López may also eke out a spot as a role player, though that hypothetical role would appear to be “pinch runner” for the moment, while Katoh seems likely to serve as Triple-A depth.
Backup Outfielder
Candidates: Josh Palacios, Mallex Smith
Also in camp: Nathan Lukes, Chavez Young
Whether Jays fans like it or not, Randal Grichuk has a pretty firm grasp on the Jays’ fourth outfielder spot, if only because he hovers around being a league-average hitter, and also plays a serviceable center field. However, especially with the extra roster spot being a reality, the Jays may decide to add a fifth outfielder, especially if one of them is a coveted left-handed hitter who can play center field. Coincidentally, all three of these candidates are left-handed hitters
Josh Palacios is the most well-known to Jays fans, getting called up in April 2021, and establishing himself with a four-for-five showing against the Angels. He didn’t do much afterwards however, getting sent down and struggling in Triple-A before losing much of the season to injury. He’s an older prospect who never developed much power, instead relying on contact and speed, while striking out a bit more than average. Defensively, he’s played a lot of center field, but is somewhat miscast there, in my opinion being a defensive downgrade from not only George Springer but Grichuk as well. He’s also played a lot of right field, where his arm profiles well enough, but where his bat isn’t as clean a fit.
Mallex Smith is debatably the fastest character in major league camp for the Blue Jays, logging a faster sprint speed in 2020 than any of the 2021 Jays. His 2018 season with the Rays, in which he slashed .296/.367/.406 with 118 wRC+ and 40 stolen bases, was his high point as a major leaguer, but also an outlier, as he had only achieved 86 wRC+ in the two season prior. His .366 BABIP in 2018 also dwarfed his previous average of .328. The Rays sold high on Smith, trading him and Jake Fraley to the Mariners in exchange for Mike Zunino, Guillermo Heredia, and Michael Plassmeyer.
While Smith would lead MLB with 46 stolen bases in 2019, it was all downhill after his breakout with the Rays. While his ability to put the bat on the ball combined with his sheer speed had previously covered up his complete lack of power, Smith started swinging and missing more and more with the Mariners, leading to a complete and total collapse in his offensive game. In 613 plate appearances for Seattle in 2019 and 2020, Smith slashed a .220/.290/.323 line, good for a horrendous 68 wRC+. He was outrighted by the Mariners in September 2020 and would not play in the Majors in 2021, instead bouncing around several organizations before eventually landing with the Blue Jays.
With massive shortcomings in his hitting and fielding that the metrics rate as anywhere from “acceptable” to “good” at all three outfield positions, Smith’s prodigious speed is easily the biggest tool he has to offer. 40+ stolen base potential isn’t something that the Jays have really had since Rajai Davis, and while it’s not exactly a cornerstone of modern baseball anymore, it’s never necessarily a bad thing for a team to have in its back pocket. Seeing as how the Jays certainly wouldn’t be starting Smith in place of any of their current outfielders though, it becomes a question of whether or not Toronto wants to use a roster spot on a player who’s explicit purpose is as a pinch-runner and defensive substitution. That kind of skillset can be worth adding in the postseason, but trying to carry it at the expense of other additions throughout the regular season is another story.
Nathan Lukes is a former Guardians and Rays farmhand who brings the ability to play center field and not much else, while Bahamian 24-year old, and Jays’ Top 30 prospect list mainstay, Chavez Young will look to build on a strong season in Double-A, and may potentially serve as a role player in the very future.