Ah, Well, Nevertheless (Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays (16-10) vs. Cleveland Guardians (11-13))
The Toronto Blue Jays’ streak of winning series despite their vaunted offence looking either limp or unlucky came to a fairly brutal end Tuesday night, as the Jays lost the first two games of the home series in New York 3-2 and 9-1 despite .319 and .290 expected batting averages, respectively. Unfortunately, that good contact either landed in the gloves of New York defenders, and/or did not come with runners on base. The defeats came largely because of bullpen implosions, officiating blunders on the part of the baseball cops that would be embarrassing if the institution of umpiring was capable of shame, and the overwhelming strength of the Yankees’ pitching staff. Thankfully, the Jays were able to salvage something from the series thanks to Yusei Kikuchi and the bullpen’s heroics and a few RBIs off the bats of Matt Chapman and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Oddly enough, it was also the worst offensive performance in terms of expected batting average, with the Jays producing a measly .204 xBA.
If the Blue Jays had gotten swept, the vibes would not be strong in Jays Fan Land, though the Maple Leafs being in the playoffs may have something to do with these online spaces not currently being as irritating as they are capable of being. However the fact remains, as it has over the last few weeks, that the offensive production just has not been there, and while that’s going to change at some point, and we saw some positive signs with Bo Bichette getting on base multiple times in each game of the New York series, it would behove the Jays to put their foot on the gas sooner rather than later. Fortunately, help is on the way, with Teoscar Hernández likely to be activated at some point during the upcoming weekend series in Cleveland against the newly-renamed Guardians, home of Former Future Blue Jay José Ramírez.
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TRANSACTION NEWS
The Jays added more pitching length to shore up an undoubtedly tired bullpen, with right-handed pitcher Casey Lawrence getting his contract selected. Andrew Vasquez was optioned back to Triple-A to make room on the active roster while Gosuke Katoh was designated for assignment to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.
You may remember the 34-year old Lawrence from his many years spent in the Blue Jays’ organization, who signed him as a free agent after he went undrafted in 2010. He made his Jays debut in 2017, pitching in four pretty terrible games for Toronto before being claimed off waivers by the Mariners. From 2017-18 in 78.2 innings pitched with the Blue Jays and with Seattle, Lawrence had a 6.64 ERA with a 5.08 FIP. He was released after the 2018 season to pursue a career in Japan, but only appeared in one game with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp (as Seiya Suzuki’s teammate!), spending most of that season in the Western League with the Carp’s minor league affiliate. Upon returning to North America bounced around for a bit before landing with the York Revolution of the independent Atlantic League. Prior to the start of the 2021 season, the Jays signed him to a minor league deal. As a swingman with the Bisons the last couple seasons, Lawrence has pitched to a 4.33 ERA.
In his previous stints in the majors, Lawrence mainly used a 90 mph sinker and a slider, the former tending to be crushed and the latter being more effective. He mixes in a four-seam fastball and a changeup, neither of which are great offerings. He’s never gotten much in the way of strikeouts and allows walks at about an average rate, inducing ground balls, but also a fair share of hard contact. For the foreseeable future, he’ll me a long man out of the pen, almost certainly exclusively used in garbage time.
Designating Katoh for assignment is something of a disappointing move, even if on a personal level, as he seemed very excited to be a part of his team, and showed versatility and plate discipline in an admittedly tiny sample size. Ideally, he would clear waivers and choose to stay in the organization as depth, but he may have done enough in his short time in the majors to convince another team to pick him up. Sure hope not though! He’s an extremely easy guy to root for.
Speaking of not that, the Blue Jays signed veteran left-handed pitcher Derek Holland to a minor league deal. At least, Derek Holland seems to think that, as he’s the one who broke the news on Wednesday via his Twitter account by posting a picture of his cute dog with a photoshopped Blue Jays cap. He had originally accepted a minor league assignment with the Red Sox and gotten into ten games with Triple-A Worcester before exercising an opt-out.
35-year old Holland was a longtime starting pitcher with the Texas Rangers who has struggled to attain consistent success who’s been limited to making teams on minor league contracts, most recently the Detroit Tigers, who he got into 39 games with in 2021, with a 5.07 ERA. He’s a groundball pitcher who relies on his sinker to induce swings and misses and softer contact, as well as a lower-spin curveball that he throws for strikes, but that can get him in trouble if he leaves it over the plate. He also mixed in a four-seamer and a changeup that don’t do much for him other than presumably occasionally deceive hitters.
Some Jays fans may hold his antics in the 2015 ALDS, in which he pretended to wipe his ass with a Jays’ rally towel while in the bullpen, against him. But Holland has since apologized, and I don’t necessarily believe we need to hold that against him. That’s what his Twitter likes and Wikipedia Controversies page are for.
Much-discussed veteran outfielder Dexter Fowler exercised his opt-out on Tuesday after only three games with the Buffalo Bisons after the Jays presumably informed him that he would not be getting called up now or in the near future.
As of writing on Thursday, Teoscar Hernández has not yet been activated from the IL. And not that I’m impatient or anything, but uh…
Hooooooooly shit, get well soon buddy.
BEST BIRDS
Hitter: Bo Bichette (1) .455/.500/.727, 2 RBI, 0.32 Win Probability Added
Honourable Mentions: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk
Pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi (1) 6 innings, 21 batters faced, 3 hits, 1 earned face, 1 walk, 1 earned run, 1 walk, 1 home run
Honourable Mentions: Alek Manoah, Trevor Richards
Best Bird Standings:
Hitters:
George Springer- 2
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- 2
Bo Bichette- 1
Santiago Espinal- 1
Zack Collins - 1
Danny Jansen- 1
Pitchers:
Alek Manoah- 4
Kevin Gausman- 2
Yusei Kikuchi- 1
Jordan Romano- 1
SCHEDULE/PROBABLE PITCHERS
(Stats are from 2021-22)
Thursday, May 5 (6 p.m. EST/4 p.m. MST)
José Berríos (3.58 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 25.1 K%, 6.0 BB%, 27 Hard Contact%)
Aaron Civale (4.54 ERA, 4.92 FIP, 19.7 K%, 6.5 BB%, 28.6 Hard Contact%)
Friday, May 6 (7 p.m. EST/5 p.m. MST)
Kevin Gausman (2.74 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 29.9 K%, 5.6 BB%, 26.6 Hard Contact%)
Shane Bieber (3.00 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 31.4 K%, 7.5 BB%, 25.8 HardContact%)
Saturday, May 7 (6 p.m. EST/4 p.m. MST)
Ross Stripling (4.64 ERA, 4.84 FIP, 21.3 K%, 6.7 BB%, 27.4 HardContact%)
Triston McKenzie (4.58 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 27.2 K%, 11 BB%, 25.8 HardContact%)
Sunday, May 8 (1:30 p.m./11:30 a.m. MST)
Alek Manoah (2.84 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 27.6 K%, 8.3 BB%, 19.2 HardContact%)
TBA
THE OPPOSITION
Pythagorean Record: 13-11 (111 runs, 104 runs allowed)
Last 10 games: 4-6
The Cleveland Guardians went decidedly against type this offseason by actually adding payroll. Specifically, signing the best third baseman in baseball, José Ramírez, to an absurdly team friendly extension through 2028. The vaunted Cleveland pitching factory, headed by ace Shane Bieber, is still chugging along, with Cal Quantrill and Triston McKenzie rounding out the rotation even as Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale have gotten off to disappointing starts to the season. Emmanuel Clase and his fucking ridiculous 100 mph cutter headline a bullpen that sses the likes of Bryan Shaw, Trevor Stephan, Sam Hentges, and old friend Anthony Gose off to strong starts.
The offense was the bigger question mark, and the main reason most didn’t project the Guardians to set the world on fire going into the season. For the moment, Cleveland has over-performed, despite the likes of Amed Rosario, Óscar Mercado, and even the mighty Franmil Reyes being offensive black holes to start the season. Ramírez has been typically elite, and Myles Straw continues to ride BABIP and his own incredible speed to good production, but the littler guys have come through as well. Owen Miller, Andrés Giménez (of “the Francisco Lindor deal” fame), Canadian Josh Naylor, and transcendent rookie sensation Steven Kwan all have 150 wRC+ or higher in the early going.
Is that sustainable? Track record would suggest not, but the Guardians have Houdini’d themselves into good results to justify not spending before, so who knows? All I know is that Aaron Civale has a 10.67 ERA to start the season and I swear to Christ, and if we don’t get some fucking runs off him, I’m going to have an aneurysm!
Best (Healthy) Players (2021-22):
José Ramírez, Third Base, .273/.364/.555, 148 wRC+
Shane Bieber, Starting Pitcher, 3.00 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 31.4 K%, 7.5 BB%, 25.8 Hard Contact%
Myles Straw, Center Field, .281/.364/.369, 111 wRC+
Owen Miller, Utility Infield, .238/.291/.377, 88 wRC+
Andrés Giménez, Shortstop/Second Base, .246/.295/.395, 92 wRC+