2021 Toronto Blue Jays Spring Training Preview (Part 1: The Bullpen)
By the time this piece comes out, the Toronto Blue Jays will have begun their official spring training workouts, with pitchers and catchers having reported on Thursday, February 18. Position players, some of whom have already made the trek to Pinellas County, begin official workouts today on Monday, February 22. On February 28, the Jays will play their first Grapefruit League game against the Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. The day after, they’ll play their first of many home games at TD Ballpark in Dunedin against the Pirates. In front of a paying audience apparently! So, uh, we’ll see how that goes!
So naturally, it’s time to look at who the Jays are bringing to Spring Training and judge what the outlook is for them: Who is a lock for the active roster right from the get-go, who is genuinely competing for a spot, who is hoping to play themselves into the conversation, and who is mostly just happy to be here.
We’ll start off by looking at the bullpen, which appears to be mostly settled at this point, to the extent that any Major League bullpen is ever well and truly “settled”. However, at least one, but probably two spots are up for grabs. The lack of a limit on the number of pitchers, as well as the continued presence of a taxi squad, provide the Jays with some flexibility with regards to how they use their pen and rotate guys through.
With that said, which relievers are all but guaranteed to be on the 26-man roster come opening day?
Locks
Kirby Yates (pictured at top)- Right handed - Closer/high-leverage (No options)
Jordan Romano - Right handed - High-leverage (Options)
Rafael Dolis - Right handed - Setup (No options)
Ryan Borucki - Left handed - Specialist/middle relief (Options)
David Phelps - Right handed - Middle relief (No options)
Tyler Chatwood - Right handed - Middle relief/long relief (No options)
Ross Stripling - Right handed - Long relief/spot starter (Options)
Toronto missed out on Brad Hand, Álex Colomé, Liam Hendriks, and Trevor Rosenthal. However, the Jays, who’ve never been keen on blowing big money on relievers in recent years, may have gone ahead and gotten the guy who’s the best of any of them.
Signing Kirby Yates to a one-year deal has thus far been the biggest acquisition of the offseason not named George Springer, provoking a highly amusing pair of MLB Trade Rumors posts.
In both 2018 and 2019, Yates was one of, if not the best reliever in MLB, largely thanks to a dynamite splitter ranking among the best in the game.
2020 was a lost year for Yates. The catch is that he was hurt, with his season being cut short by the discovery of bone chips in his elbow. And it’s not unreasonable to think that was a primary contributor to his awful, if limited, season. While manager Charlie Montoyo has said that nobody on the Blue Jays is guaranteed a permanent closer role (and rightfully so, it’s an antiquated relic of the 90s and 00s), you have to think that Yates will be getting the bulk of the ninth inning opportunities, at least to start the season. Relievers are volatile, so there are no guarantees, but a one-year deal doesn’t hurt the Jays any, and if he can be at least close to his 2018-2019 form, that makes for a pretty solid back end of the rotation along with Jordan Romano and Rafael Dolis.
Speaking of those two, Toronto has to be feeling pretty good about them. Romano became the Jays’ top relief option right out the gate. In an injury-shortened 2020, the Markham native established himself as a legit source of high-leverage relief, striking out a whopping 36% of batters, pitching to a 3.12 FIP, 2.40 xFIP and 2.59 SIERA, and most importantly, carving out a niche as the Blue Jays’ resident super intense lunatic reliever, especially now that Ken Giles has left for Seattle.
Not to be outdone is Rafael Dolis, who went from a fairly terrible AAAA reliever for the Cubs in 2011-13, to an excellent closer in Japan for NPB’s Hanshin Tigers, to a dependable high-leverage and ninth-inning option for the Blue Jays. Dolis pitched to a 3.38 Expected ERA in 24 innings and shared the closer role with Anthony Bass after Ken Giles went down with an injury. Granted, he is my least favourite type of pitcher to watch. He walks way too many batters, and he’s the single greatest argument in favour of a pitch clock this side of Pedro Báez. But so long as the sinker, splitter, and slider keep working (and boy did they ever work for him last year if his 31% strikeout percentage and .172 xBA Against are any indication), I don’t think that the Jays will really give a shit about how close his style comes to giving me a triple bypass. Regardless of who is in what specific role, I think that the Yates-Romano-Dolis 7-8-9 combo should be just fine, if not much better than fine!
Getting into the middle relievers, Ryan Borucki, David Phelps, and Tyler Chatwood look pretty good, at least on paper. Borucki went from a decent-to-middling young starting pitcher who had missed time with a bone spur to an effective middle reliever in 2020, owing to a solid wipeout slider blessing him with a 28.8% strikeout rate and a .199 Expected Batting Average Against. He walked a frankly concerning amount of hitters (16.4%!!!!!), so improving on that, as well as working on being more effective against right-handed hitters, should be the goal for him, I imagine.
Bringing Phelps back into the fold is looking like a good pickup. He was putting together a nice little season with the Brewers (2.77 ERA/1.85 xFIP/1.78 SIERA in 13 innings) before being shipped off to Philadelphia and promptly imploding (12.91 ERA/9.97 FIP/4.01 xFIP, giving up 5 home runs in 7 ⅔ innings). I don’t hold his stint with Philadelphia against him though, because I’m convinced that the Phillies bullpen was cursed by some sort of vengeful Eldritch Horror. Take a look at his limited 2020 Statcast metrics in totality and they paint the picture of a solid veteran reliever who gets hit hard but strikes out enough batters and limits hits enough to be a solid middle reliever. That’ll play!
Chatwood is a little more of a wild card. From 2018-20 with the Cubs, he averaged out to a basically mediocre starting pitcher and swingman (4.70 ERA/4.88 FIP/4.89 xFIP) with average strikeout rates, who gets hit a bit too much and walks WAY too many batters. The Jays love their projects, and Chatwood certainly qualifies. Hopefully, a permanent move to the bullpen allows him to cut back on using his weaker pitches and helps his stuff play up. We shall see.
Ross Stripling is an interesting one. A podcaster, S T O N K expert, and part-time swingman who was never able to eke out a permanent spot in the Dodgers’ rotation through no real fault of his own. After all, you try smoothly inserting yourself into a 5-man group that also has to include some combination of Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Yu Darvish, Julio Urías, Dustin May, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill and Alex Wood. 2020 was definitely a down year though, and a midseason trade to the Jays didn’t alleviate that. However, the Jays do expect him to contribute to the big league team and seem to be assuming that his 2020 was an outlier in an otherwise fine career. This is probably the right way to look at it, too. Beyond being an easy guy to root for, I’d certainly weigh the 212 ⅔ innings he pitched from 2018-19 (3.22 ERA/3.44 FIP/3.24 xFIP) over the 49 ⅓ in 2020 (5.84 ERA/6.15 FIP/4.95 xFIP).
Technically, Stripling is currently competing with the likes of Tanner Roark and Steven Matz for two spots in the starting rotation, but I have a hard time seeing the Jays going with him there, if only because Stripling has a lot more experience out of the bullpen as a long reliever. However, I think we may see him start some games if only to give the likes of Hyun Jin Ryu and Nate Pearson an additional day off. And if Roark, Matz, or Robbie Ray falter, don’t be shocked to see Stripling assume a more solidified role in the starting 5.
I feel confident saying that, barring injuries or some sort of service time fuckery, these are the guys we’re gonna see in the bullpen come opening day.
Now, that still leaves one spot available. In fact, I think it’s likely that the Jays go with nine relievers to make maximum use of that lack of a cap on pitchers on the active roster. So two open spots for relievers seems likely. Who’s looking to fill those spots?
Right Handed Candidates
A.J. Cole (Non-roster invite, no options, pictured)
Patrick Murphy (Options)
Ty Tice (Options)
Jacob Waguespack (Options)
Joel Payamps (Options)
Anthony Castro (Non-roster invite, options)
This section is fun because you get a combination of people with some name recognition as well as names that I’ve never laid eyes on in my goddamn life.
A.J. Cole was obviously a big contributor to the 2020 team (the 7th biggest, in terms of bWAR!), even finding himself in the back-end of the rotation along with Dolis and Bass with Giles and Romano injured. Despite his undoubtedly nice results (3.09 ERA), it’s safe to say that the Jays probably don’t want to rely on him as much. His peripherals aren’t great (4.05 FIP/4.99 xFIP/4.63 SIERA), and his Statcast numbers do indicate an ability to avoid solid contact, but not much else. That said, if he forces the issue, I don’t see the Jays holding off on adding him to the big league team. They could do a lot worse than A.J. Cole in low-leverage middle relief!
Patrick Murphy’s minor league career was repeatedly derailed by both injuries and the Umpire Association’s ruling that a toe tap in his windup was technically illegal, resulting in erratic results in AA as he struggled to retool his delivery. Through all that, the Jays liked what they saw, and he got a call-up in September. It’s safe to say that Murphy impressed in six innings, flashing a mid-to-high 90’s sinker and a solid curveball. He has options, and he’s moving to relief full-time, so he’ll probably start 2021 in Buffalo, but expect to see a fair bit of him with the Jays this year.
My fellow 5’9’’ king Ty Tice was one of a few players added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Tice hasn’t made it on any prospect lists, quietly putting together solid seasons in the system, including a 2.34 ERA between AA and AAA in 2019. He strikes out a ton of hitters, but he walks a lot of ‘em too. Tice is a fastball/slider guy who lives in the mid-90s and will mix in the occasional curveball. The good news is that there is a very real possibility that he’s on the shuttle from Buffalo to… I guess Dunedin a lot this year. The bad news is that we’re gonna have to hear about his height a lot and it’s gonna get annoying.
It might be the contrarian part of me speaking, but part of me is a little miffed that Shun Yamaguchi is so reviled by Jays fans and was unceremoniously jettisoned while Jacob Waguespack is still on the 40-man, because they were basically the same pitcher. Nothing against Waguespack. He gave the Jays some solid innings in 2019, but 2020 really did illustrate that he is what he is: A long reliever and emergency starter with an okay curveball who can eat up some garbage time innings for your team. He’s a fine depth guy, and he wouldn’t be the worst pitcher to have on the taxi squad, but he may be on the DFA bubble sooner rather than later.
Speaking of Yamaguchi, Joel Payamps is either his or Derek Fisher’s replacement on the 40-man, depending on how you choose to read that. Claimed off waivers by the Jays from the Red Sox after Boston had previously claimed him from Arizona, he’s been a starter for most of his time in the minors, but I’ll be completely real, there is absolutely no way I think Payamps makes a start for the 2021 Toronto Blue Jays, so here he is.
Payamps has bounced between AAA and AA in the Diamondbacks’ system since 2017, often pitching well in AA before struggling in AAA. Not necessarily ideal! He made his MLB debut in 2019 and has logged seven innings with Arizona since then. His selling point in the minors has been his lack of walks, holding hitters to a 5.5% walk percentage in 2019. That hasn’t translated at all in the big league level, where he’s faced 30 batters and walked six of them. Again though, small sample size. Payamps could be a guy the Jays try to sneak through waivers at some point to make room on the 40-man.
(EDIT: LOL FUCKIN’ OOPS)
Much like they did with Anthony Castro. Castro, a late-blooming 25-year old Venezuelan prospect, pitched a grand total of one inning for the Detroit Tigers in 2020 and was promptly claimed by the Jays after the season. What’s the outlook? As FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen put it in the Jays’ prospect ranking, “he’s been on prospect lists before because of his fantastic frame and modest but relevant arm strength (lots of 92-93). His heater has natural cut; his slider lacks depth. Maybe the new org will be able to tweak things, but Detroit is actually pretty good at pitch design and they could not.”
So not a super great sign! In fact, a lot of these guys probably aren’t the platonic ideal of a reliever, but that’s the nature of the beast. No harm in seeing if Castro can’t figure something out as a starter in Buffalo. Worst case scenario, the Jays may have a solid reliever on their hands.
Left Handed Candidates
Francisco Liriano (Non-roster invite, no options, pictured)
Tim Mayza (Non-roster invite, options)
Francisco Liriano is almost more appreciated by Jays fans for the transactions that he’s been involved in than for the actual results he produced for Toronto on the mound. He was first acquired by the Jays on August 1, 2016, along with now-backup catcher Reese McGuire and outfielder Harold Ramírez, who was recently DFA’d by the Marlins. This doesn’t sound like a fantastic haul until you consider that the only guy they had to give up was starting pitcher Drew Hutchison, the man who single-handedly relegated the pitcher win stat to the dustbin of history. Almost exactly one year later, Liriano was flipped to the Houston Astros on July 31, 2017, for 12 games of Nori Aoki, as well as Teoscar Hernández, who is pretty good.
That’s not to say that Liriano didn’t contribute. Far from it, actually! He was very solid coming over to the Jays, leaving his mark on the team with an extra-inning relief appearance in the Wild Card game against the Orioles, getting Jonathan Schoop and Michael Bourn to ground out to end the 10th, condemning J.J. Hardy and Adam Jones to similar fates to start the 11th. He ended that inning by striking out Nolan Reimold with a big slider to set the stage for... Uh, what was it again?
Oh yeah! I needed that.
Liriano, much like the Jays in general, wasn’t nearly as effective in 2017, eventually getting shipped to Houston and getting his ring, as dubious a title as it may be. After a mediocre season as a starter with Detroit, Liriano returned to Pittsburgh and established himself in the bullpen full time, posting a good season, albeit with some mediocre peripherals. He signed a minor league deal with the Phillies for 2020 but was released in July, eventually opting out of the season and making his way back to the Jays on a non-roster invite to spring training.
At this point in his career, 37-year old Francisco Liriano isn’t blowing anybody away. His three main pitches are a non-spectacular sinker and a plus slider and changeup that don’t rack up a lot of strikeouts. Liriano instead tries to limit contact to overcome his own tendency to give up too many walks. As lower leverage relievers go, you could do a lot worse, and if the Jays want a second lefty in the pen to go along with Borucki, Liriano might have the inside track.
On the other hand, they may go with Tim Mayza, who I totally forgot was still in the organization. In 2017-18, Mayza’s first 56 games in the Majors, he was a solid specialist option for John Gibbons, riding his excellent sinker/slider combo to a 29.1% strikeout rate, 3.39 xFIP, and 3.07 SIERA while laughing in the face of his 4.44 ERA.
2019 was less solid. He walked more hitters and allowed more solid contact than in previous years, and this combined with a dent to his strikeout rate blew his ERA up to 4.91, though his xFIP and SIERA only rose to 4.10 and 4.30, respectively. Mayza got hurt in the middle of a September game against the Yankees and underwent Tommy John surgery. To add insult to injury, the Jays snuck him through waivers in November, outrighting him off the 40-man roster. He’ll hope to prove that he’s healthy and can go back to being a strikeout weapon in the middle innings, though the Jays might opt to keep him in Buffalo if they’d rather have Liriano and/or they want to take it easy with his elbow.
The 2021 Buffalo Bisons Starting Rotation
Julian Merryweather, right-handed (Options)
Trent Thornton, right-handed (Options)
Thomas Hatch, right-handed (Options)
Anthony Kay, left-handed (Options)
T.J. Zeuch, right-handed (Options)
I’ll talk about these five more whenever I talk about the starting rotation, but don’t rule out any of these guys getting some innings out of the bullpen in 2021, especially down the stretch. Necessity is going to dictate who’s on the fringes of the Jays’ active roster at any given time, and if the Jays need to borrow a starter from Buffalo for a spell, that’s probably just what they’ll do. However, it’s also been pretty clear that they’re gonna be starting pitchers, at least for the near future.
Probably Just Happy to Be Here
Yosver Zulueta (Right handed, non-roster invite, pictured)
Bryan Baker (Right handed, non-roster invite)
Jackson Rees (Right handed, non-roster invite)
Kirby Snead (Left handed, non-roster invite)
Yosver (or Yosbel???) Zulueta is a bit of an interesting case. He began playing for the Naranjas de Villa Clara of the Cuban National Series as a teenager, pitching to a 2.57 ERA. The Jays used the international pool space they got for team legends Dwight Smith Jr. and Kendrys Morales to sign the then-21-year-old Zulueta in June 2019. Zulueta promptly underwent Tommy John surgery and hasn’t played an official game of minor league ball yet. He has a mid 90s fastball and used a curveball in the Fall Instructional League, which may hint that the Jays are developing him as a reliever, but it’s honestly too early to say for sure. Per Longenhagen, “he’s really well-built and athletic, has a good arm action, and obviously has requisite big league velocity coming out of rehab. The rest is very hazy, but because of when he signed, Zulueta has a long developmental runway.” So, we’ll wait and see, I guess!
Bryan Baker is a 6’6’’ reliever that the Jays acquired from the Rockies after the 2018 season as the player to be named later in the Seung-hwan Oh deal. Per Baseball America at the time of the deal, Baker is a power pitcher whose fastball tops out at 99 mph, though he also throws a cutter, slider, and changeup. He strikes out a ton of batters but struggles mightily with command. He’ll try to impress in spring training and earn a future opportunity, but he’ll probably stay at Buffalo for the foreseeable future.
Jackson Rees is a bit of an interesting case, at least to me. I wasn’t even aware of his existence before writing this, and apparently, he comes in at 21 on the team’s Fangraphs prospect rankings. In 2019, he pitched to a 0.73 ERA between Class A Lansing and High-Class A Dunedin. He has a low-to-mid 90’s fastball and a phenomenal curveball that piles on the strikeouts. He’s probably not going to make an appearance for the team this year, but he’ll be someone to keep an eye on in the future.
Kirby Snead, henceforth known as “The Other Kirby”, is one of those dudes that feels like he’s in Buffalo forever, but apparently, he’s only played there for one season. Per 2080 Baseball, Kirby 2 is basically your average lefty two-seam/slider type with fine control. He had a nice strikeout percentage (25.2%) in 2019 in New Hampshire and Buffalo, but he’s probably not getting the job over Liriano or Mayza, to say nothing of the non-lefty candidates.
That’s it! Now that the bullpen’s out of the way, the next posts should go by a lot quicker, god willing.
If we were talking about which two pitchers, irrespective of contract situations, can most help the bullpen at this rate, I think the two best options would be Julian Merryweather and Trent Thornton, though if they want a second lefty, I could see them going with Francisco Liriano instead of Thornton.
That said, we live in a reality of option years and 40-man rosters. Merryweather and Thornton both have options and are also being developed as starters, so I think that leaves them out, at least for now. A.J. Cole, Liriano, and Tim Mayza are all non-roster invitees, so they would need to be added at the expense of someone else. And we still can’t say for sure that the Jays aren’t going with a sort of modified six-man rotation to start the season.
A lot of this is going to depend on how people look in spring training, so any prediction I make at this point is fundamentally useless. With that said, I’m guessing the two favourites are A.J. Cole and Francisco Liriano.